Barack Obama's Crossover Appeal

[illinoisprogressive]

In the Iowa caucuses, electability means a lot. Many argue a lack of it is what did in 2004 Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean, who saw his seemingly insurmountable lead collapse in the final weeks before the caucuses. Every Democratic candidate has earnestly pitched Iowans on why they are best-positioned to bring their party back to the White House in 2008.

National polls indicate Democrats give U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., a substantial advantage there. Critics argue that name recognition is the main reason for that, and Clinton's opponents have hammered on her high voter negatives and polarizing reputation to try to narrow the gap. Drake University professor Arthur Sanders says it's a wise strategy. "I think that if you're going to attack Hillary Clinton, electability is the issue," he said. "That's the question with Hillary. Are there too many people who dislike her, so she'll have a hard time winning?"

The campaign of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., tried on Monday to add to its general election credentials by releasing the names of 268 Iowa Republicans who are publicly supporting the Illinois senator. The prospect of substantial crossover general election appeal is tantalizing. But are those 268 the tip of an overlooked iceberg, or just an interesting statistic? Will Republicans go so far as to change their party affiliation and actually go to Democratic caucuses? "Iowa voters tend to be very practical, so I do think they are smart to bring that up in their strategies," said University of Northern Iowa professor Donna Hoffman. "Will it work? It might, because Republicans in the state seem to be very unhappy with the state of the Republican candidates."

An August University of Iowa poll intriguingly showed Obama placing third among registered Republicans, although such support was not evident in the poll's latest October incarnation. Obama's campaign is looking at such numbers perhaps more than anything else as indicative of a larger positive trend.

"This isn't a situation where we're going to surprise everybody in the Democratic caucuses by turning out a bunch of Republicans," said one campaign source. "But...this is good evidence that Sen. Obama is having success in Iowa bringing people together around a common vision for the future of our country." The Obama source said that a lot more than 268 Iowa Republicans are supportive of Obama, but weren't necessarily comfortable with having their name on a public list, or committing to changing their party registration.

http://campaignsandelections.com/IA/articles/?ID=931

Asked about Clinton's lead in electability polls, the source said, "if you look at most of those horse race match-up polls ...Obama consistently does better against the Republicans than Clinton does... I care less about perceptions about electability and more about demonstrating he can bring people together."

In an unusual twist, the pundits PoliticsIowa spoke with for this story expressed more intrigue in Obama's potential Republican support than the campaign itself. "Politics is about addition, not subtraction. Sen. Obama is certainly underscoring that with this," said GOP activist and former gubernatorial candidate David Oman. "It might be showing his crossover appeal in a way that people haven't yet focused on." Asked whether he hears other Republicans speaking positively about Obama, Oman said, "I do from time to time. People are interested in him, curious, drawn to his fresh face and ability perhaps to turn a page for the country."

Said Hoffman, "In Iowa it's still very unsettled, and there's not a lot of attention given at the national level... If comes in second place in the caucuses, that does some real damage to her."

Clinton's rivals believe she has a weakness on electability, and have been pushing hard to exploit it. They will be closely following Iowa polls in the next several weeks to see whether the issue has legs to close the gap.

[MethuenProgressive]

1. "268 Iowa Republicans who are publicly supporting the Illinois senator"

I don't want a candidate who wants to hug Rightwingers and pander to anti-human rights bigoty.
You support Obama if you must, but don't count on that 23% growing very much.

[yardwork]

2. Republican voters don't want to admit that they were wrong.

[msongs]

3. repub strategy: first let's get the woman, we'll get the black guy later? nt

[AtomicKitten]

4. Obama's groundwork in the primary states is second to none.

K&R