Oregon -Clinton 50% The Ghoul 45%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=e9650067-7716-4d71-86a9-f5cd70db14c1&q=40145

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I'm more interested in the states Kerry lost.

I think Clinton, if she wins the nomination, shouldn't have too much trouble winning the states Kerry won (though it won't be a walk). But how will she do in places like Iowa, Ohio and Florida, states Bush won? This election won't mean shit if Clinton goes out and wins all of 252 electoral votes. She needs to flip either Florida or Ohio, can she?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Ask And Ye Shall Receive

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=88ee22a0-fd25-4335-8757-55c4df15e945&q=40145

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=2dbaa9be-dfa7-499e-9aa6-e748067ea7ca&q=40145


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=13940d24-fd93-4086-8874-693723634885&q=40145


As of now she's doing quite well...

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Which results are which?

Or are they listed in the order I listed them?

Hopefully they hold, but I think Dean, at this point, was leading in state polls against Bush, too. :/

[Carrieyazel]

14. No way she flips Florida or Ohio. Don't trust any general election polls this early.

She'll have problems holding on to Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If she doesn't, she'll barely get to 222, much less Kerry's 252, because she won't be winning any other battlegrounds.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I See

We should reject the only hard data we have access to and defer to your opinion...

No thank you...

[depakid]

34. The pollmeisters don't care

They're simply trying to con people- it's part of the inevitability "strategy."

[still_one]

2. That is good that she is ahead, but it is still troubling that 45% of the people are for guliani

I thought Oregon was mostly a Democratic state, and after what the republicans have done to our country the past seven years, you would think it would be even a larger spread, but not 45%

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Na', Oregon has some very conservative areas.

The state is still a swing state. Remember, Kerry only won with 51% of the vote (Bush got 48%).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Bingo

Oregon is a blue state but it's not navy...

[depakid]

16. It was 51.35% to 47.19%

Which is over 4 percentage points.

Recall also that the Greens took 5 1/2 percent in 2000.

Another thing to note is that the Demographics have changed- with more young, progressives moving into the urban areas.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Rounding it, Kerry got 51%, Bush 48%, or 3% difference.

In 2004, the other candidates only managed 1% between them all.

[depakid]

32. How does 4.16 round out to 3?

:shrug:

[Drunken Irishman]

35. The results were rounded to 51% and 48%. That is 3%.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Wait, I was looking at poll results from 2004 that had Kerry beating Bush 51-48.

It appears the actual results were 52-48 in favor of Kerry. So that would be 4%, you're right. Sorry.

[depakid]

37. 47.19 rounds out to 48?

:shrug:

[RiverStone]

3. The chance Al will win if he never enters --- 0%

Al, ya know it's yours for the taking. But I understand, why would you want to quit a day job you love after just winning the Nobel Peace Prize for doing it? :think:

I respect your choice and direction for 2008.

I hope we will see you run for president down the road sometime! You would have my vote, guaranteed!

[smalll]

33. "down the road sometime"? - He's got exactly one week.

Friday November 2nd is the deadline for filing for the New Hampshire primary. I'm not knocking your Gore-support, just trying to point out that the window of opportunity for Al is closing fast.

[RiverStone]

38. I've already given up on 2008

...thats what I meant by - I respect your direction for 2008

Al is content doing what he is doing currently (which is tons). Do I wish he was running in 08 - HELL YES!!!!

But, since he left the door open to run sometime by not ruling out the "possibility" - I said down the road. Too many filing dates will pass by early Nov to make it mathematically unfeasible.

He's already down the road past the 08 election and 1 week makes no difference (unfortunately).

[depakid]

7. That 's an astoundingly BAD result at this point

and if true, would demonstrate my point that if Hillary gets the nomination, she'll have negative coattails which will adversely affect our state and local candidates and ballot measure.

We could kiss our newly Democratic legislature goodbye, despite it's successes- and maybe lose a Congressional seat or two.

Not to mention retaining Gordon Smith.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. It's on the par with how Oregon votes.

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/elections2004/2004OR.html

And I'm not a Clinton supporter.

[depakid]

17. At this early date- considering what's happened

It would be a VERY bad omen (though as I alluded to, I don't take much- if any stock in these sorts of polls).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Yeah

It's a terrible ,I mean terrible, omen that only Hillary Clinton wins in enough states to secure a Electoral College majority...Just terrible...

[depakid]

31. Terrible for state and local cadidates and issues

Which MANY of use find equally if not more important that whether the Clinton's grab power again- and betray us again (yes, we remember logging without laws, etc., etc.).

rUnfortunately, neither the Clinton's -nor their supporters care a lick about that....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. I'll Play

Hillary Clinton has had shit slung (is that a word) against her for fifteen years now...Moat folks only know the "alleged" good things about Rudi and she is still edging him...

Wait to America finds out:

-he married his sister,errrrrrr, first cousin

-he has a pedaphile priest on his payroll

-he's a tranvestite

-he had a love nest at the WTC and that's why he set up his headquarters there

-the fire fighters didn't have the proper equipment on 9-11...

[Carrieyazel]

8. Way too close for comfort. Oregon will be close, but still a Democratic Lock.

Even Hillary would win it. But if she's only barely ahead here, what does that say about the real battlegrounds?? Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado etc.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Kerry won Oregon by 3%, Gore by not even a full percentage point.

[depakid]

18. Include the Green's 5.5% to that and see above

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Were The Greens On The OR Ballot In O4?

That's news to me...

[depakid]

22. Read the posts

:eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I Read It

You were up to your obscurantist tricks and combining different election years..

[depakid]

27. WTF are you talking about?

Get a clue- I reported the straight up election results for 2000 (for the Greens) and 2004 for Kerry.

Go to the Secretary of State's office and do the calculations for yourself. :think:

[Drunken Irishman]

28. Nader received 1% in 2004. David Cobb (Green Party) didn't receive a full percentage point.

In fact "other" (that's all the other candidates outside of Bush and Kerry) received only 1% combined.

[depakid]

40. Nader wasn't on the ballot in 2004!

http://www.blueoregon.com/2004/09/breaking_news_r.html

For percentage totals of the other candidates, see:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=41&year=2004&f=0&off=0&elect=0

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. She's Winning In All Those States

But I know....We should ignore the data and listen to you....

[Mojambo]

11. Seems WAY closer than it should be

I wonder what the numbers are for the others?

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Kerry won Oregon by only 3%.

[depakid]

26. That's because it is

and it likely doesn't include the numbers of progressives who won't vote for her, period.

One can only hope that they'll stay (or get) registered and send in their ballots on the state and local candidates and issues- but my suspicion from previous elections is that quite a few won't do that.

And quite a few more right wing nutcases will.

[Yukari Yakumo]

24. Other interesting ones...

(Both Oregon)

McCain 44%, HRC 49%
All other HRC polls has her demolishing the RePuke.

Ghoul 47%, Gore 48%
Is Al really all that better than HRC? (Those not living in Reality-Land need not to answer.)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Thank You

It takes too long to post myriad links...

I didn't match HRC against the patsies...

[depakid]

30. Now that result is just laughable

ANY Oregonian- no matter what their stripe would just laugh in your face if you told them that!

Who's living in reality land? Not whoever reported those numbers- I'll guarantee.

:rofl:

[guidod]

39. If Rudy makes it to the General Elections I'll guarantee

he will do, or say, something that will destroy himself. The dem candidate can sit back and watch him melt. He has far to much baggage to make it thro ugh an entire year of campaigning for President. LOL!

[Cha]

41. Why is the ghoul doing so

well in OREGON?!