Will the 15% rule be a factor in Iowa, propelling Obama?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I think if you don't get 15% in a caucus location, you relocate your vote to your second choice. That's usually not a giant factor, but there's a lot of pressure this year to resolve the race into Clinton v. Anti-Clinton. I am guessing that Edwards is fading fast, and that Obama will be the big beneficiary. Clinton will hold what she holds... she's strong among those over 50, and they're pretty dependable caucus goers.

My guess is that Obama will take Iowa with a big number, maybe something like 40% to 32% for Clinton, and everyone else will under perform. Going into New Hampshire the race will already be down to Clinton and the consensus anti-Clinton. From that point, it's probably a replay of McCain-Bush or Hart-Mondale, with some drama along the way, but Clinton grinding ahead in the delegate count state by state.

The Republicans may go the opposite way, fracturing the field even more, rather than coalescing. Huckabee should finish a strong second to Romney's bought-support. Then Guliani ambushes Romney in NH. Mitt wins Michigan. Huckabee emerges as the christian dark-horse... A real mixed-up mess. Florida should give Rudy a tough-to-top delegate lead in the week-by-week tallies. Thompson's absurd campaign wrecks the party dream of a consensus candidate that doesn't piss off the christian right.

Desperate to have a candidate before the convention, the pug party big boys probably fall in line behind Rudy eventually, though God knows why.

[jenmito]

1. I think so...

What you said seems to be the way it's going to work out. Edwards has practically lived in Iowa since '04 and he isn't even winning there NOW. His downfall will be Obama's benefit since their positions are more similar than Edwards' and Clinton's positions. I think Hillary's support is pretty much fixed and those who are either supporting Edwards now or still learning about Obama will give Obama the numbers he needs to win Iowa and propel him to the nomination.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. Don't know about the nomination, but I'll be surprised if Obama doesn't win Iowa

[jefferson_dem]

2. Wow! Well done.

I can see all this happening...

[frazzled]

3. I don't know who benefits

I would suspect Biden and Dodd voters (if they're still in the race and don't get 15%) might well go to Clinton.
Richardson voters, not sure ... could go to either Edwards, Obama, or Clinton.
Kucinich voters .... ?? Edwards or Obama
Gravel voters ... not enough to impact.

Several candidates may decide to drop out before Iowa ... remains to be seen. And then they could throw their support to one of the others.

I'd be doubtful, however, that Obama would reap all the benefits. It seems to me they might be fairly evenly split among the top three.

You might be right that Edwards may be leveled off in Iowa: for having spent so much capital there, there hasn't been much movement in his numbers (a few points up and down). He could benefit from the 15% rule as second choice, however. But his shaky standing in NH won't probably translate that into any momentum.

I'm not sure there will be one runaway winner in Iowa. A close race between the top three will essentially cancel out any Iowa impact.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. All valid points. History is one your side more than mine.

Iowa seldom produces a two-candidate blowout like I anticipate this year. And Clinton is the strong second choice of a surprising mix of voters.