On Gore

[babylonsister]

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1710

On Gore
by: Chris Bowers
Wed Oct 03, 2007 at 14:32:11 PM EDT

Looking at the Washington Post poll this morning showing Clinton ahead by a remarkable 33% nationally, coupled with her strengthening positions in Iowa and New Hampshire, made me think of the most solid information I ever received on Gore running. Specifically, a friend of me (no one on this blog) told me back in the spring that a presidential candidate told him that Gore was only going to run if it looked like no one could beat Clinton. Well, even though there are still about three months left before the Iowa caucuses, national and early state trends have been favorable to Clinton for about five months now. If these trends continue, the time may soon arrive where it will indeed look like no one can defeat Clinton for the Democratic nomination, Obama's simultaneous rise in Iowa not withdstanding.

I think an Al Gore candidacy would be exciting, and really shake up the nomination campaign over the next few months. Considering the current soft nature of candidate support combined with his resuscitated image and the free media he would receive, he might even jump to the top of national polls, and close to the top of early state polls. Of course, after that point, he would find himself at a major organization disadvantage, especially in the early states, and the initial bump would also disappear. Before long, he might find himself in a similar situation to Clark, leaping into top-tier status but with internal weakness to his campaign that resulted in a slow deterioration of support. Still, he would be in the contest, even if he wouldn't be the immediate frontrunner.

I would also be personally interested in an Al Gore candidacy. Even though I don't blog about it much, energy and global warming have become very big issues for me over the past couple of years. In fact, Al Gore's awareness campaign is one of the main reasons why it has risen as an issue for me. The way I see it, continued, expanded energy production is one of the keys to the continuing progress of human civilization, while at the same time the way we are producing more and more energy (15 terawatts a year now) is seriously harming the environment, and thus also harming humanity. The key is to find ways to continue the expansion of our energy output, thereby benefiting humanity, without harming the environment and thus damaging humanity. This means a massive, public works expansion in renewable energy production surpassing even the Tennessee Valley Authority, and paid for by a carbon tax. The only major Democrat who I really trust to undertake such a project would be Al Gore. Granted, Chris Dodd is on board with a carbon tax, which means I will probably never stop considering him as a candidate, but Al Gore pushes on this issue in a way no other Democrat does.

So, I think the basic conditions for a Gore candidacy have been met:

1. Clinton pulling away
2. No candidate making serious global warming and energy solutions prominent in their platform
3. His national image is once again net positive
4. He would still have a chance even if he entered now.

However, I still don't think Gore will run. For starters, he has indicated that he will probably make an endorsement in the 2008 campaign, something which candidates are not inclined to do. Second, even though he hasn't completely shut the door on running, he has made it clear that it is an extreme longshot. Third, I am also struck by the quote that Matt posted earlier today:

"I can't understand why there aren't rings of young people blocking bulldozers," Mr. Gore said, "and preventing them from constructing coal-fired power plants."

This isn't the statement of an activist leader, as Gore is not organizing young people to take that sort of radical action. This is, instead, the statement of a teacher who hopes that others will take action after being told the truth. An activist would jump into the race (maybe not as a candidate, but he would still enter in some way) to push for his issues, while a teacher would raise awareness through books, movies, concerts and media appearances. Gore seems to have shifted his primary focus in life toward awareness and away from activism, switching perhaps from practice to theory. Entering a Presidential campaign only three months before Iowa seems entirely out of place with his modus operandi these days. I am in no way opposed to Gore running, but I would be utterly shocked if he did.

[Vincardog]

1. I hope you will be shocked

[kestrel91316]

2. I kind of suspect that if Gore jumps into the race, every other Dem's

numbers will drop below 10%.

.....ever hopeful......

[012009pdx]

3. New poster that's been reading for sometime now...

I am a big Gore supporter and have been for a long time and have often wondered why he wouldn't get in the race if he is so passionate about his beliefs today. The Teacher/Activist comment is interesting and one I haven't thought of before. The thought that I keep coming back to over and over is that maybe he really doesn't think being President of the United States would be the best way to fight these issues. Maybe in his opinion the President is powerless, being held up by bad politicians and greedy corporations. I don't know but I keep trying to figure out why Gore who has devoted so much of his life to these issues won't fight for them unless he thinks this fight at least in the US government can't be won.

Just a thought.

[babylonsister]

4. Maybe Gores is throwing his hands up in despair over our government, same

as we are. Good point, and welcome to DU! :hi:

[otohara]

5. Welcome to DU

I'm just sick about the fact that this man may never be our president.

[emilyg]

7. Welcome to DU. Post more often.

[David Zephyr]

6. Well, I am holding on to hope that Al will run...

I feel like my car has run out of gas and I've got another 10 miles to the gas station...and yet, I am on the downside of the mountain and I can slip into the neutral gear and coast...I still think it can be done.