49% Negative Ratings (fact check)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Hillary's 49% negatives are often cited in electability arguments. The odd thing is that there's little evidence of any 49% negative rating since she kicked off her campaign. The 49% analysis came from a Gallup poll number that Karl Rove cited in his "flawed candidate" argument, and it seems to be an outlying number. She's actually fairly popular nationally... not beloved, but viewed more positively than not. (Because Clinton has 100% name recognition, both her negatives and positives are higher than someone like Romney who has a high "who's that" number.)

If you don't like her, that's cool. She's gross. There's little reason to LIKE her. But the idea she is unelectable is manufactured RW propoganda, subsequently recycled by competing Dem candidates. (Fair enough. They are trying to win too.)

I will vote for Biden in the primaries and vote for any Dem in the general. (Gravelmentum!) I don't care all that much if Hillary wins or loses in the primaries. But I do care that if she gets the nomination a lot of Dems will have been convinced we are doomed before the race even starts. I'm an old guy and I remeber that happening with Humphrey in '68. Clinton is not a progressive dream but is certainly electable. That's why RW types go on TV saying "we want to run against Hillary" while the same people have set up a swiftboat-style operation to run ads against her during the Dem primaries. (It's called "Rat Fucking" in Republican political circles, and dates back at least to Nixon's anti-Muskie efforts in '72.)
______________________________

Here are the four other recent national polls. (All people, not just Dems) Notice that her negatives in these four are are 39, 39, 39 and 36. That's a pretty tight cluster, so it seems likely those four are more reliable than the one 48 (Gallup) in that mix. I don't know why Gallup generates higher negatives, but their numbers are WAY different than other national polling.

She was viewed less favorably in February '07 than today, but she has been on TV a million times since February and her negatives have declined. So it seems that people have had a net positive reaction to her since the campaign began in ernest. (The Pew poll really tells the story. Hillary lovers and Hillary haters cancel each other out 21-21. Among thopse without strong opinions the attitude is 34 to 18 favorable. "Yeah, she's okay." Not wild enthusiasm, but far from hate.)

http://pollingreport.com/C2.htm (Scroll down. The page starts with Clark, then Clinon)

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Sept. 7-9, 2007. N=1,017 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. New York Senator Hillary Clinton." "New York Senator" omitted prior to June 2007.

Favorable-53
Unfavorable-39
Never Heard of-1
Unsure-7
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Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas. Aug. 1-18, 2007. N=3,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 2. December 2006 and earlier surveys conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.
"Now I'd like your views on some people. Would you say your overall opinion of Hillary Clinton is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?"

VeryFavorable-21
MostlyFavorable-34
MostlyUnfavorable-18
VeryUnfavorable-21
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CBS News Poll. Aug. 8-12, 2007. N=1,072 registered voters nationwide.
RV = registered voters
"Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Hillary Clinton yet to have an opinion?"

Favorable-41
NotFavorable-39
Undecided-19
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Newsweek N=1,002 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4. 7/2-3/07
"Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people in politics. If I mention someone you had never heard of before this interview, just tell me. What about Hillary Clinton?"

Favorable-57
Unfavorable-36

[TwilightZone]

1. Now, now. No bringing facts into the discussion.

I haven't even chosen a candidate yet, but the constant barrage of posts about how poor her negatives are is getting a little tiresome.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. The race will probably be over before my state. I like Biden, but he'll be out of the race by then.

Hence my relative calm about who gets the nomination. The best politician will get it, and that's cool.

"That's why they play the game"

[pnwmom]

2. Thanks for putting things into perspective. n/t

[Quixote1818]

3. That is very interesting! Thanks for posting! nt

[Cameron27]

4. K&R

[immoderate]

5. Another aspect -- Compared to whom?

As a star, Hillary may generate negatives based on what amounts to aesthetic reasons. Lots of people around here don't like her. Few say they wouldn't support her if she is nominee. I think the negatives could be a little softer than is thought, when she's up against one of those idiots, especially their top tier.

---IMM

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Yeah, for a non-president favorability is a flexible measure

Presidential favorables track people's overall opinion of the country, but for everyone else it's a People magazine kind of thing. Then when a campaign strats in ernest the candidates favorable's track the "who will you vote for" question.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Documenting the swift-boat claim in OP (From TPM)

Emphasis added to note that the effort is DURING the Dem primaries to prevent her getiing the nomination.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2007/09/right_wingers_organizing_to_attack_hillary.php

A Republican group called Stop Her now is vowing to raise and spend between $500,000 and $600,000 in an all-out effort to derail Hillary's Presidential candidacy between now and February.

"We expect we'll be much more intense in our efforts between now and Feb. 28," said Texas businessman Richard Collins, a leading organizer of the group. Among their efforts will be adding more mainstream humor — not just the right-wing kind — to their Web site and other efforts.

In addition, another group called Citizens United is producing an anti-Hillary documentary, which backers intend to serve the same role as the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth campaign against John Kerry in 2004.

[Auntie Bush]

10. And are we Democrats going to be stupid enough to believe it? Yep!

I bet we see many of what the Rethugs say during the primaries posted here on DU. Many posters here are going to drink the Rethug Kool-Aid.

[illinoisprogressive]

9. I've seen alot of polls where her negatives are between 46 and 52

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. Me too, but not lately. (She's less likable than Obama or Edwards, but that's not the same as

"certain 49 state loser!" which I have seen asserted.

If Obama wins the nomination he's probably electable. Works for me.

My candidate is at 2% and dropping, so I'm fine with anyone who is a winner.

[calteacherguy]

12. Thank you for the wisdom in this post.

:thumbsup:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. I should have emphasised that these are not cherry-picked results. It's all the national polls since

July. If there were more polls they'd be included.

Unfavorables from July 2-present: 39,39,39,48,36

Part of the confusion may arise from the fact that candidates are comissioning polls these days, which can be disregarded. Including the assinine poll my candidate (Biden) comissioned asking people whether they liked "liberal big spenders" like Hillary and Obama.

[calteacherguy]

14. Good information, thanks. nt