2008 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton rising, Obama falling.

[William769]

New York Senator Hillary Clinton has been steadily gaining support since April in her quest for the Democratic Presidential nomination. A review of the weekly polling data released by Rasmussen Reports showed Clinton averaging 33% in April, 35% in May, 36% in June and 39% in July. During the last full week in July, Clinton topped the 40% mark for the first time and the first full week in August the frontrunner earned support from 44% of Likely Democratic Primary voters.

While Clinton has been gaining support, her nearest challenger had been standing still for most of that time. Over the past week-and-a-half, however, Illinois Senator Barack Obama’s support has declined for the first time since April.

The charismatic newcomer to the national political scene had enjoyed stable support in the 25% to 27% range for ten straight weeks during May, June and July. In fact, except for a brief blip to the 30% range in April, Obama’s numbers have been in the mid-20s just about all year. However, his support slipped slightly to 24% during the final full week in July and slipped again to 22% in the first full week of August. This is the first time all year that Clinton has doubled Obama’s support in a full week’s polling sample.

Clinton and Obama fairly evenly divide the African-American vote while Clinton leads among all other demographic categories.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

[NYCGirl]

1. I hope this part of Rasmussen's prediction is wrong:

A Clinton nomination will almost certainly yield a competitive general election. While Clinton is very popular among Democrats, overall public opinion is evenly divided--her favorable/unfavorable ratings have been near the 50/50 mark all year. The number who would definitely vote for her in a general election has stayed between 28% and 30%. The number who would definitely vote against has stayed between 46% and 48%. Both figures are the highest or nearly the highest for any candidate in either party.

Absent a major third party candidate, it is hard to envision Clinton attracting less than 45% of the vote. It is equally difficult to envision her reaching the 50% threshold barring a total collapse of the Republican campaign. That could result in a situation where fringe third party candidates determine the outcome with candidates from the left hurting the Democrats and candidates from the right hurting the GOP. It might also result in a President being elected with less than 50% of the vote for the 4th time in the last five elections.

[flpoljunkie]

2. John Zogby's take: "National numbers based on name recognition, media coverage."

From "Pack Closing in on Hillary in the Early States"...

"There is clearly a tightening there. The national numbers are based on name recognition and on media coverage. The primary process is very much a sequential process," independent pollster John Zogby said.

"This process is wide open, absolutely. Hillary is the national front-runner, but she is not the front-runner in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina," three of the early contests that will take place in January, Mr. Zogby said.

A five-day American Research Group (ARG) poll of 600 likely New Hampshire Democratic voters conducted the last week in July showed Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama tied with 31 percent each.

Mr. Zogby said his polls in the state earlier this year had shown the race close, while succeeding surveys by other organizations showed Mrs. Clinton moving into a substantial lead.

http://zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=15408

[draft_mario_cuomo]

3. That doesn't explain why Obama has fallen from 32% to 21% in Rass' polling

If Zogby is correct Obama should have been rising, not falling in the polls as his name ID rose...Obama is now lower than he was in Rass' national poll right after he entered the race. He is approaching where he was in November of 2006 (18%).

[rinsd]

4. Umm you should really read that article. Its an oped from the Moonie Times

- By Donald Lambro, The Washington Times, DC

Also, Zogby hasn't published a primary state poll since mid May for IA or NH and not since mid April for SC.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Weak, rinsd! Don't like the message, attack the messenger. Zogby is quoted.

[rinsd]

10. I was just warning you since it wasn't clear.

Also like I said Zogby hasn't done any polling on the primary states since May so for all we know that is when he made his comments.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. Edwards now within 8 points of Obama for 2nd...

[elizm]

6. Same poll...Hillary loses...Obama wins.

Hillary loses to Giuliani and Thompson and barely beats McCain (tie within the margin of error). Obama beats them all handily. That is the real story...but you seem to ignore that.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

Clinton (49%) Brownback (41%)
Clinton (50%) Gingrich (43%)
Clinton (45%) Giuliani (46%)
Clinton (48%) Huckabee (43%)
Clinton (45%) McCain (43%)
Clinton (49%) Paul (34%)
Clinton (46%) Romney (42%)
Clinton (45%) Thompson (46%)

Obama (49%) Brownback (34%)
Obama (48%) Gingrich (38%)
Obama (47%) Giuliani (41%)
Obama (52%) Huckabee (32%)
Obama (46%) McCain (40%)
Obama (50%) Paul (30%)
Obama (47%) Romney (38%)
Obama (46%) Thompson (40%)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. And Edwards does better than both against the Republicans

;)

[rinsd]

8. Spam posting now?

I mean we joke about Obamatons but you don't need to take that to heart.