Rasmussen Poll: Clinton drops 2; Obama gains 3...now just outside MoE

[jackbourassa]

Obama also bests McCain and Romney.

Obama leads by 9% against both.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/presidential_tracking_poll

[flpoljunkie]

1. Perhaps within the 4 point MOE with Hillary at 35% and Barack at 28% in today's tracking poll.

[jackbourassa]

3. True...

Hillary might be at 31% and Obama at 32%.

That would make it a statistical tie.

[rinsd]

2. For a guy who swears polls don't matter, you're touting a daily tracking poll!

:rofl:

[jackbourassa]

4. I'm just illustrating how stupid some of you guys are...

...when you worship these polls.

That's all.

I guess i'm smart enough to know that these polls are meaningless. Last week she was up by 16%, yesterday she was up by 12%, today it's 7%.

What will it be tomorrow or next week?

What is obvious to me is that Bill Clinton isn't helping her campaign very much.

[rinsd]

6. They say imitation is the highest form of flattery.

"I guess i'm smart enough to know that these polls are meaningless. Last week she was up by 16%, yesterday she was up by 12%, today it's 7%."

Apparently not smart enough to know how to use a daily tracking poll. And also apparently not smart enough to know that comparing different polls from different firms and time periods usually lead down the wrong path when trying to spot trends.

[jackbourassa]

5. For a guy who swears to be an expert in the MoE...

...you have to admit that this poll makes the race a statistical dead heat.

Technically speaking, of course.

[rinsd]

7. Again you seem to have honesty issues. I claimed no such expertise.

But maybe its me but when one is outside the MOE by nearly the MOE itself it would not seem to be a statistical dead heat.

Especially when based on a daily tracking polls which is usually looked at best in 7 day segments. Because it going to be a hell of alot more volatile in results then weekly, biweekly or monthly polls.

The opener of your link

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows some movement but little change in overall dynamic "

[jackbourassa]

8. I confused you with your buddy saveelmer, who is a world renown...

...expert on polling and MoE.

Still it goes to show how small and volatile Hillary's lead actually is. Especially with so much time left before the first vote. And even more especially because Obama is doing such a good job at fund raising and organizing --- the two things that actually matter at this point. You guys seem most impressed with the two things that matter the least: horse race numbers and endorsements.

THAT WAS THE POINT!!!!!! Since you apparently need it spelled out for you. Which is PERFECTLY CONSISTENT with everything else I have written on the subject.

[rinsd]

10. "Which is PERFECTLY CONSISTENT with everything else"

You keep claiming that but I have yet to see it.

"Still it goes to show how small and volatile Hillary's lead actually is."

Except it doesn't.

Look at the trend for the last 3 months. The poll numbers have been relatively stable.



"And even more especially because Obama is doing such a good job at fund raising and organizing --- the two things that actually matter at this point"

Because Hillary is a pauper with zero organization right now.:eyes:

Obama has done well in these fields but Hillary has hardly been slouch. She is on his heels in primary cash on hand and part of bringing on Vilsack was to use his IA organization. I would say its worked out well so far for her as she has risen in the IA polls.

Here's the funniest thing, Obama has to spend more money than Hillary does because as you have stated many times, he does not have the name recognition that Hillary does.

"You guys seem most impressed with the two things that matter the least: horse race numbers and endorsements."

Some of us are poll junkies. Some of us simply post positive news about our candidate which will include endorsements from time to time. There are different types of supporters posting about different things. This is true of each of the big 3's supporters (who are most prolific posting here).

[jefferson_dem]

11. Personally, i read that as "SOME MOVEMENT but ...blah blah blah..."

;)

[rinsd]

12. LOL.

Oh man these daily tracking polls are gonna be a hoot for the 1st few weeks.

[wyldwolf]

9. yeah, daily tracking polls are always fascinating

They can fluctuate, well, daily. It will be interesting to see what the week's average is.