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Vyan Donating Member (990 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:30 PM
Original message
Don't. Panic!
Edited on Fri May-25-07 01:30 PM by Vyan

The late Douglas Adams, in his seminal comedic work, "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" wrote these words to help calm the character Arthur Dent as his world was literally ripped asunder and he was thrown into an entirely alien environment with little more than pajamas, slippers, a bathrobe, and an all important towel.

Today following the passage of the New Iraq Supplemental Bill, the one without timelines and with only optional benchmarks I repeat these words to my fellow Democrats and fellow Americans with emphasis.

Don't Panic.

This is the way it had to be - for now. Because right now - We don't have the votes.

But buck up - this ride only goes until September. Then we reset and ride again, only next time - we'll have more vote than this time. I promise.

Let me begin with a sports metaphor. Although this may be the 4th Quarter of Bush's Presidency, all he got was possesion of the ball. We were at 4th and 20 - so we punted. We had to. Sure, it's his ball now, but that doesn't mean the game is over, it just means that now we go on defense for a little while, and most people in sports know that good defense makes for great offense.

Also - We didn't have the Votes

Let me just say that I for one love the Keith Olbermann, he's been a great cheerleader through the last couple quarters of this game - but somebody needs to remind him, this shit ain't over yet.

I know a lot of us are bitter. Many of us feel betrayed, and are enraged. I get that.

But - Don't Panic!

You see, the one thing we need to end this war we simply don't have yet -- psst, I'll let you know what it is.

(We Need Republican Votes!)

Now is not the time for us to be eating our young new Congress after roasting them on a spit. To paraphrase Patton, we need to make those poor sons-a-bitches eat their no-account dim-bulb decider-er President alive - for their country.

You see, I've long felt and said that neo-conism is a disease much like other compulsive-addictive disorders. Like an alcoholic or other addict, they've got to hit bottom - hard - before they begin to look up and realize it's time to put down the shovel and stop digging. A lot of us on this side of the aisle bottomed-out on Bush's bullshit a long time ago.

Maybe it was after he sat there paralyzed for 7 minutes staring at "My Pet Goat" while the Towers I and II burned.

Maybe it was when he decided to pull resources out of Afghanistan, allowing bin Laden to escape in Tora Bora and instead attacked a country that had nothing to do with us.

Maybe it was after the cheesy flight-suit with the cod-piece and the "Mission Accomplished" banner.

Maybe it was after Abu Ghraib.

Maybe it was after Katrina and the video of Bush being specifically told about the danger to the levees.

Maybe it was after the number of dead U.S. soldiers in Iraq surpassed the number of dead U.S. citizens on 9/11.

Maybe it was after Walter Reed, where we saw just how our wounded we're being supported by this Administration.

Dems are at 88% dispproval for Bush and 93% disapproval for this war, and I'm pretty sure Congress knows that. Our numbers can't go much higher unless Joe Liebermann finally returns from the Cheney Side of the force.

The problem though is that although this war remains at a 23% approval rating overall, it's still remains at 54% approval among Republicans. Let that sink in for a bit, the slim majority of Republicans still support this fracking disaster.

However the trend line is what's important, and it shows that this approval has been gradually going down bit by bit. This past January 60% of Republicans supported Bush's then proposed "Surge". Last May the percentage of Republicans who thought invading Iraq was "right" was 75%.

The President's support for this War, even though he still retains a majority of Republicans - is soft. It's weakening. Next time we address this question, and that won't be very long from now, it'll be even weaker still.

It's only a matter of time before a majority of Republicans are against the war, and that Veto overrides start to look possible. But not now.

Although we might not be at that point by September, we might have enough Republican support by then to make the Benchmarks "Real", and that's progress. Step by step. Inch by Inch - we'll get there.

Just Don't Panic!

I know that we voted in November to end this war, and send a message to the President. Yeah well, we all should know damn well that he's not a reader by now. The ones who need to receive the message are Republicans who continue to support this President. But here's the thing, even we had done has Sen. Edwards suggested and sent the exact same bill with timelines back to the Bush again and again - it doesn't mean that he would have to stop the war.

Y'see - back in 1993 when the Republican Congress tried to shove a bunch of budget-busting tax cuts down the throat of President Clinton he vetoed them. He even vetoed the Defense Appropriations Bill. From Clinton's "My Life" page #690

After breaking for Christmas, I vetoed one more budget bill, the National Defense Authorization Act. This one was tough because the legislation included a miltary pay increase and a larger military housing allowance, both of which I strongly supported. Neverthelesss, I felt I had to do it because the bill also mandated the complete deployment of a national missile defense system by 2003, well before a workable system could be developed or would be needed moreover, such action would violate our commitments under the ABM Treaty and jeopardize Russian's implementation of STARTI and it's ratification of START II. The bill also restricted the President's ability to commit troops in emergencies and interfered too much with important management prerogatives of the Defense Department, including its actions to redress the threat of weapons of mass destruction under the Nunn-Lugar program. No responsible President, Republican or Democrat, could have allowed that defense bill to become law.

At this point the Government had been almost completely shut-down. Nothing on but the emergency lights. But here's the thing, look what Clinton did almost immediately after Vetoing the Defense Bill.

During the last three days of the year our forces deployed to Bosnia....

Somehow, somewhere - thanks to some very creative financing by the Treasury department - he got the money to do what he needed to do. I have little doubt that Bush in a similar situation, would do exactly the same thing.

So Democrats who worked out this deal with Republicans and the President have not capitulated, they have not caved, they have not cut-and-run out on us. They've simply reset the game clock.

As it stands now, time is on our side. Although Gen. Petreaus says they won't know anything definitive about how badly the surge is failing by September - I think we'll have a pretty good idea.

Brit Hume thinks all this September talk is just giving the enemy (whoever that is) a chance to setup a "Tet Offensive" Brit (can I call you Brit?) I think you saying that probably has more to do with them getting that idea than John The "Town-Cryer" Bone-er saying

"By the time we get to September or October, members are going to want to know how well this is working, and if it isn’t, what’s Plan B."

There is no "Plan B" John. It's just Plan A: Add Softener, Rinse and Repeat. or in other words to simply use our troops as Cannon-Fodder until the Insurgents and the Militias and the Death-Squads get tired of killing them over there, so they don't have to bother coming over here - or something.

The only good plan is for our troops to leave by transitioning the peace-keeping role over to the Iraqis themselves. It's their Civil War - let them fight it out. Iraqi troops should be moving to the front-lines while ours move to the rear. We can still provide air-support for when they have a legitimate al-Qaeda target, we can supply some troops to support that mission, but our primary mission IS DONE.

And if the Saudi's want to get involved and prevent a Sunni Genocide - Let 'em. That's just one fresh new member to the coalition of the willing which has been bleedings constituents for years now.

I actually agree with Hume, and other Conservative who claim that the enemy can "wait us out" or whatever if we give them a specific time-table, but - big but - all we have to do before that point is ensure that whether our troops are there or not Iraq can defend itself. That should be our sole mission in the region, and you know what - chances are once we are finally leave - so will most of the violence.

All we need are the Votes - and there's only one place to get them from.

So don't call your Democratic Representative or your Senator and bitch them out for cutting this deal -- call the Republicans and tell them Every Additional Soldier that Dies between Now and September is ON THEIR HEADS because they failed to support the Veto Override.

Make those S.O.B's do the sweating - our team did good folks, we didn't get a touchdown, but we picked up some yardage - let 'em hit the showers until next round.

Vyan

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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks for the edit
:crazy:
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noamnety Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
2. "Time is on our side"
What is that? Is that the voice of privilege I hear?

The people I know who are AFFECTED by this sure the hell don't have time on their side.
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CBHagman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:36 PM
Response to Original message
3. Yes, you've done the math!
(Would that Ralph Nader had, but I digress.)

There is no veto-proof majority in Congress, and Bush only has to run out the clock waiting for the next administration to come in while he goes off into U.S. taxpayer-financed retirement and his successor deals with all the crap left behind.

I heard Keith Olbermann's various comments on the Dems, and all I could think of was that he just hadn't seen the big picture, not yet. He didn't do the math.
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SoonerPride Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #3
15. WEAK
The majority party can shut down the governemnt, not allow vacations, no recess, cease and stall everything that happens. The can turn off the electricity to the damn White House. No joke.

THEY ARE THE PEOPLE WITH POWER both literally and figuratively. Why not use it?

Caving because they can't stroke 10 swing Repukes to do their bidding effectively means the 10 Repukes run the show.
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Vyan Donating Member (990 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #15
29. Because our government is designed
to give the ultimate power to the minority, via the Veto Override. Right now the President is in the minority. Plus as I mentioned before the Governent Shutdown routine didn't really work out all that well for the Republicans when they tried it.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:38 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. There are many ways to skin a cat
Even when you have a stubborn minority
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AndyA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:42 PM
Response to Original message
4. As it stands now, time is on our side.
Edited on Fri May-25-07 01:43 PM by AndyA
Too bad it isn't on our troops side. This delay will cost how many more lives? What is the price of a life now? 3 months? 4?

No, I don't think that's acceptable. I do agree with most of your post, but I think not trying to end the war at all because you talk yourself into believing there's nothing you can do because you don't have the votes is a poor excuse.

The Dems should have kept their hands as clean as possible with this war. As it is now, they are up to their elbows in it. And that's just where the GOP wants them to be. You can be certain it will be used against us.
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NavyDavy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. and where would we be if the funding did run out for our troops and
they got less equipment than they already do.....hmmm, i think then we would see a repuke landslide come 2008!
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AndyA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. The Dems funded the troops. Bush vetoed it.
The responsibility was with Bush, and the Dems should have framed it that way from the very beginning.

What they've done is condone the war in Iraq. They can try to spin it any way they want, but everyone knows the majority of Americans want the war to end, and the Dems were largely voted in back in November to make that happen.

They had the chance, and they sided with the GOP and funded the war through the summer. A summer which we have already been told will be bloody. This is not going to help the Dems win in 2008. Not at all.
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NavyDavy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. did any of you even see what else was in that bill? we got funding
for some major social issues her at home that helps the poor and the min wage increase that bush threatened to veto if it was in the bill.....i care about my fellow military personnel but i also care about the poor here in the states that are dying alot faster and greater numbers than the soldiers/marines everyday....
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #10
20. And, we could have passed all that stuff...
and still held our ground on Iraq.
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Dark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #20
31. Uh, no. You seem to forget that Bush could have VETOED them, and we couldn't overturn
his veto.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #31
32. Good, let him
how do you think the House and the Senate of 1990 ran the show?

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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #31
43. I haven't forgotten anything.
And, we could keep sending them up, with ever higher wages, etc. and he could keep vetoeing them until the Republicans caved to political pressure from the people to override his veto.

The point is, the attachments to that bill were put there to try and appease us. It was an act of political cowardice. Eventually, Bush would have either had to accept a timeline or bring the troops home. Now, he doesn't have to do either.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #10
25. None of those issues should have been attached to this bill
This bill should have been clean, with absolutely nothing else... it only made it more palatable, but it is a poison pill, last time I checked sweet tasting poison will kill you nonetheless
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. You're right...and, whatever happened to the rule of
GERMANENESS! What the HELL does a MINIMUM-WAGE have to do with funding the war in Iraq? Pure, unadulterated "let's throw a bone to the base" and hope they forgive us" bunch of cowardly bullshit.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. There you go
This is leaving few choices

I wrote it in a separate post but it is worth repeating (forgive me mods)


Well we are at one of those forks in history

Fact is that people are PISSED and they are wondering what to do.

1.- Wait for a messiah to come and save you. Some folks have been waiting for literally 3,000 + for that, and you know what, they are still waiting, only spread the virus as it were to a second group of people, and then a third) Perhaps the message is that the messiah is in all of us and we need to act, instead of wait. But I expect some people to keep waiting for somebody to sweep down from the shy and save us.

2.- Become active in your local democratic party. I've done that in the past, and I fear I will have to do it again. Enough is enough... but I have an ulterior reason. I am actually seriously considering challenging my local democrat in the primary. Why? her voting record is ok, overall, they count on us never really doing anything when they do something this disgusting. She never faces challenges and she's in a very safe district... so my chances are purely symbolic and the action is symbolic... I would be utterly shocked if I won, to be honest.

3.- I've said it before, this is one of those magical moments in US History where throw the bums out comes... and this is also one of those moments when not one but two parties seem to be abandoning their historic bases. Can you kiddies say third parities? I know this is not popular and most people immediately think Greeen... no, I'm thinking Grangers, or even GOP (the only third party successfully challenging the presidency in US History). Why am I mentioning those two? The first meetings of the GOP occurred in 1854, and the Grangers came from nowhere. The Greens could do it for the left, if they did not have a mythical albatross on their necks, one wholly created by the media and the need to belief... Ralph Nader.

Now I know it is popular by many to blame Ralphie for the 2000 debacle, not realizing that those voters were Gore's to win, not to loose. They were not going to vote for him either way. And while you blame the greens, you ignore the USSC.

But that is why the greens have no chance in hell, or actually a very small one....

But a party emerging from nowhere and challenging, not necessarily the Presidency, (though two cycles who knows), the power structure in Congress is a real HISTORICAL possibility

I know it is popular to poopoo this

But those who do not learn from history... (and our reps did not) are condemned to repeat it.

But you will have to work for it, if you believe that is the path... I believe it is comming actually and it will shock us when it emerges, becasue it will not from the usual quarters either.
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POAS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 03:10 AM
Response to Reply #7
57. I have little doubt that Bush would
have stopped shipping anything and everything to support the troops in Iraq had the Democrats persisted.

That would have led to an "I told you so speech in the Rose Garden and a sizable number of American people would have gone along and blamed the Dems.

I think Peolosi and Reid recognized their presently losing hand (it's hard to bluff when the other players already know your hole cards) and also knew that the President is evil enough to carry out such a plan and willingly put our troops lives in extreme danger for political advantage.
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OneBlueSky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
5. "this ride only goes until September" . . .
by September, BushCo may well have . . .

- killed hundreds more Americans and thousands more Iraqis

- attacked Iran, either directly or through binding treaties with Israel

- assumed dictatorial control of the nation due to some catastrophe, either natural or man-made

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wryter2000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
39. I don't believe the September crap
At least, from the Republicans. What's to keep them from saying, "We're making good progress. We just need more time!"? Compouded by more boo-hoo-hooing from Boehner et al.?

And I fully trust in the indifference of the corporate media and the public amnesia to make the September drop-dead date disappear down the memory hole.

Oh, look...Paris Hilton cut Brittney's hair!
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NavyDavy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:48 PM
Response to Original message
6. finally some sense is back on DU....and not just hissy fits
and threats to leave the party
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
9. I'll panic if I want to.
I just want to make sure the Dems know we are watching what they do.
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auburngrad82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:02 PM
Response to Original message
11. Great post, but it will do no good
It seems that there are more than a few people here are in full lynch mode. And they're willing to give Bush and the GOP a free ride so they can blame the Democrats.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
12. Except for the violence decreasing when we leave part, I agree.
That will only happen if sufficient numbers are dead and I don't think they're there yet. Iraq also has to stop digging at some point. Sadly, what they're digging are graves.

We need to understand that blood will flow when we leave. That can't be a factor. They have a lot to settle that does not concern us. And non-violence does not seem to be a preferred choice.

We cannot let the Republicans' prediction of a bloodbath if we leave intimidate us. Respond, "Of course there will be a bloodbath. They're going to slip and fall in all the blood that's flowing NOW."
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renie408 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:08 PM
Response to Original message
13. Good try. But armchair politicians would rather be angry than logical. n/t
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:26 PM
Response to Reply #13
23. What is logical in VOTING on a bill that
WE DID NOT HAVE TO PUT UP FOR A FUCKING VOTE? WE CONTROL THE AGENDA. The problem is a lack of courage.

Courage without wisdom is dangerous.
Wisdom without courage is useless.
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SoonerPride Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:08 PM
Response to Original message
14. So what you a basically saying is they are weak
Edited on Fri May-25-07 02:10 PM by SoonerPride
The Democrats had no power when they were in the minority and now they have no power even though they are the majority. All the power lies with 10 potential swing Republicans who may or may not help override any threatened veto.

Well, I'm so sorry, but these weak-kneed Democrats have no undersatanding of how to use power.

They can shut down the mothereffing government. They can stop EVERYTHING until they get what they want. They can filibuster, walk-out, force quorums, and 15,000 other parliamentary procedures to effectively stop the government rom working. With ou without Republicans on their side. THEY DON'T NEED THEM. PERIOD.The majority party can shut Washington DC down.

This shows a lack of will and thought. We need - desperatley need - leadership.

If 10 swing Republicans own all the power in the government, then we should go suckle their teets because they control us and not the other-way round.





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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. AMEN. And, welcome to DU!!
:hi:
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renie408 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #14
22. How does that 'shut down the mothereffing government' thing work?
With one extra seat in the Senate and a 31 seat majority in the House, how do Dems 'shut down the mothereffing government'? Wouldn't it take a fairly large majority to do that? I mean, if they don't have the votes to defeat a veto, how do they have the votes to shut down the mothereffing government?
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. Here's how it happens.
You declare a recess and you go home, and you don't pass any appropriations bills. Spending is controlled by the Congress. Every damned spending bill HAS to originate in the Congress. The people's house controls the purse. The problem is, the people's house isn't listening to the people.
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Vyan Donating Member (990 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #14
41. No, I'm saying
patience and perseverance are virtues. Our government was design to prevent the tyranny of the majority, and in this case - that's us. We have to win the debate and bring the Repubs to our side. Tough, difficult, almost impossible - but that's the way it has to work.

Vyan
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 04:57 PM
Response to Reply #41
44. And, our country was designed with a system of checks and
balances in order to do away with the tyranny of the executive. In this case, that's THEM. Congress is a co-equal branch of government. It's time they started acting like it.
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Henryman Donating Member (187 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
16. "Don't Panic!"...WTF...Tell that to the Soldier's Mothers!! n/t
Edited on Fri May-25-07 02:17 PM by Henryman
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:18 PM
Response to Original message
17. And, in the meantime...4 months and 120 BILLION dollars later...
Edited on Fri May-25-07 02:36 PM by rateyes
how many MORE unnecessary deaths and dismemberments of innocent children will there be? We didn't have the VOTES? Then WHY THE HELL DID WE TAKE A VOTE on that piece of shit legislation?? WE CONTROL THE FUCKING AGENDA. We.did.not.have.to.pass.this.stupid-assed.bill. We didn't even have to put it up for a vote.
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Gregorian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
19. I think you're right. But it would be different if WE were doing the dying.
Yes, some of us knew this was coming, in January of 2000. We were already at bottom, then.

But what alternative do we have? None. Not unless every American literally surrounds the White House. Or Congress decides to go ballistic.

So people will die while politicians do what they think is prudent, for whatever stupid reasons.

But for our own sake, you are right. At least for now.

Pelosi did not set off my BS detector. That's a good sign. And you can trust me, as I always keep it calibrated.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
21. ONE MILLION Iraqis dead and you want us to be emotionless, just let this defeat
roll off us as if it is water off a duck's back.

ONE MILLION EXCESS DEATHS since March, 2003 - is a very fair estimate at this point. The Lancet study published in October 2006 estimated 655,000 -- and they stopped collecting data in July 2006, nearly a year ago. Their estimate did NOT include Fallujah and they instructed their surveyors NOT to go into neighborhoods in which they did not feel safe.

October, 2006: Updated Iraq Survey Affirms Earlier Mortality Estimates

As many as 654,965 more Iraqis may have died since hostilities began in Iraq in March 2003 than would have been expected under pre-war conditions, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. The deaths from all causes—violent and non-violent—are over and above the estimated 143,000 deaths per year that occurred from all causes prior to the March 2003 invasion.

The estimates were derived from a nationwide household survey of 1,849 households throughout Iraq conducted between May and July 2006. The results are consistent with the findings of an October 2004 study of Iraq mortality conducted by the Hopkins researchers. Also, the findings closely reflect the increased mortality trends reported by other organizations that utilized passive methods of counting mortality, such as counting bodies in morgues or deaths reported by the news media. The study is published in the October 14, 2006, edition of the peer-reviewed scientific journal, The Lancet.

“As we found with our previous survey, the majority of deaths in Iraq are due to violence—although we also saw a small increase in deaths from non-violent causes, such as heart disease, cancer and chronic illness. Gunshots were the primary cause of violent deaths. To put these numbers in context, deaths are occurring in Iraq now at a rate more than three times that from before the invasion of March 2003,” said Gilbert Burnham, MD, PhD, lead author of the study and co-director of the Bloomberg School’s Center for Refugee and Disaster Response. “Our total estimate is much higher than other mortality estimates because we used a population-based, active method for collecting mortality information rather than passive methods that depend on counting bodies or tabulated media reports of violent deaths. Though the numbers differ, the trend in increasing numbers of deaths closely follows that measured by the U.S. Defense Department and the Iraq Body Count group.”

Key points of the study include:

• Estimated 654,965 additional deaths in Iraq between March 2003 and July 2006

• Majority of the additional deaths (91.8 percent) caused by violence

• Males aged 15-44 years accounted for 59 percent of post-invasion violent deaths

• About half of the households surveyed were uncertain who was responsible for the death of a household member

• The proportion of deaths attributed to coalition forces diminished in 2006 to 26 percent. Between March 2003 and July 2006, households attributed 31 percent of deaths to the coalition

• Mortality data from the 2006 study reaffirms 2004 estimates by Hopkins researchers and mirrors upward trends measured by other organizations

• Researchers recommend establishment of an international body to calculate mortality and monitor health of people living in all regions affected by conflict

The mortality survey used well-established and scientifically proven methods for measuring mortality and disease in populations. These same survey methods were used to measure mortality during conflicts in the Congo, Kosovo, Sudan and other regions. For the Iraq study, data were collected from 47 randomly selected clusters of 40 households each. At each household selected, trained Iraqi surveyors collected data on the number of births and deaths that occurred in the household between January 1, 2002, and June 30, 2006. To be considered a household member, the deceased had to have lived in the home at least three months prior to death. When interviewers asked to see a death certificate at households reporting a death, it was presented in 92 percent of instances. The survey recorded 1,474 births and 629 deaths among 12,801 people surveyed. The data were then applied to the 26.1 million Iraqis living in the survey area.

While the survey collected information on the manner of death, the study did not examine the circumstances of the death, such as whether the deceased was actively involved in armed combat, terrorism, criminal activity or caught in the middle of the conflict. The study outlines other limitations of the survey method, including the hazards of collecting data during a conflict.

The results from the new study closely match the finding of the group’s October 2004 mortality survey. The earlier study, also published in The Lancet, estimated over 100,000 additional deaths from all causes had occurred in Iraq from March 2003 to August 2004. When data from the new study were examined, it estimated 112,000 deaths for the same time period of the 2004 study. The new survey also found that the number of deaths attributed to coalition forces had declined in 2006, though overall households attributed 31 percent of deaths to the coalition. Responsibility could not be attributed in 45 percent of the violent deaths.

According to the researchers, the overall rate of mortality in Iraq since March 2003 is 13.3 deaths per 1,000 persons per year compared to 5.5 deaths per 1,000 persons per year prior to March 2003. This amounts to about 2.5 percent of Iraqi’s population having died as a consequence of the war. To put the 654,000 deaths in context with other conflicts, the authors note that during the Vietnam War an estimated 3 million civilians died overall; the Congo conflict was responsible for 3.8 million deaths; and recent estimates are that 200,000 have died in Darfur over the past 31 months.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 02:28 PM
Response to Original message
24. I'm sure the trroops will panic
it is their lives after all

What about the Iraqis, it is their lives after all

Look we have the power, but only if we choose to use it (we didn't)

And there are many ways, and I mean that, to skin the fucking cat.

Yes, even when you do not have veto proof majorities

By they way, do you also cave to your two year old when he or she throws a tanter tantrum? This is exactly what they just did
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DU GrovelBot  Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##
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This week is our second quarter 2007 fund drive. Democratic
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leftupnorth Donating Member (657 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 03:26 PM
Response to Original message
34. "We don't have the votes" is complete and utter bullshit.
We had the votes to pass a bill with timetables, the president vetoed it.

We fulfilled our obligation to the troops and the American people.

WE were not obligated to budge on ANYTHING, yet we did all the compromising and Bush and the GOP got to be all resolute and strong, again. Even after we whipped their ass in the last election.

Nothing like having a full house, with the GOP going all in on a pair of 3's, and folding because we're afraid of the names they would call us if we took em for a ride.

Fucking Disgusting.
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. You missed something, the MSM spin machine.
If Congress just let the veto stand and had not done a new bill the spinmeisters in the MSM would of spun it as "Dems refuse to support the troops!!!" I would like to ignore what the MSM spews, but since most Americans gets thier news from them we are stuck with trying to out-maneuver the spinmeisters, and Congress obviously screwed up in the process somewhere. :banghead:
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leftupnorth Donating Member (657 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. C'mon. We're afraid of them calling us names?
If that's all that made the Dems cave, we deserve exactly what we get.

With 70% of Americans wanting us out of Iraq, who's gonna buy the shit they're selling?
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Odin2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. Most want out, but most are NOT for an immediate withdrawl.
I think many other posters have already made that point clear.
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leftupnorth Donating Member (657 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #37
46. I realize that. But what choice are we left with? Bush vetoed the funding approved by both houses.
We killed ourselves when we bought the argument that supporting the troops = funding the war.

Most Americans don't buy that anymore, yet too many of our supposedly most political savvy representatives are still buying it, by the dozen.

How hard is it to say that supporting the troops means getting them home, one way or another, Bush's choice. Timelines and money, no timelines, no money. Veto the timelines, no money. Your choice George, not ours. This is what the people want and we intend to give it to them.

But instead we said,"well, we want timelines, but if it comes down to it, we will still fund the troops."

That's like telling the car salesman that you want to pay sticker before he even makes an offer.

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Vyan Donating Member (990 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #34
48. As with Clinton
Edited on Fri May-25-07 07:38 PM by Vyan
President Bush has the financial flexibility even if Congress simply doesn't bother to pass an appropriations bill. Our stamping our feet would change nothing. We have to win the arguement and bring our opposition to our side of view. One Repub at a time if neccesarily.

Vyan
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AnnieBW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 04:03 PM
Response to Original message
38. Thanks for saying this
I know that it's painful for the Dem leadership to sell out troops out like this. However, we have to realize that this is the way that the game is played. We don't have the votes right now. Let's give the Repubs in Congress a little more rope to hang themselves with. Give the public that hates * and the Administration, but is hesitant on impeachment, time to get more disgusted. What's done is done. Let's quit playing Monday-morning quarterbacking and move on to other things. We have more dirty dealing to uncover, and a potential war with Iran to stop.
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Heath Hatcher Donating Member (394 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 04:37 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. I agree
It's politics and it's a dirty game, you can't handle it get out of the kitchen. The fact of the matter is that the votes aren't there to override the veto nuff said and Democrats like a majority of americans want to see the war end with no funding cut whatsoever, so cutting the funds out. September will be the make them break them period for the Democrats when the funding will end, the Republicans will start to shake and Petraus will give his report. If the Dems can't muster up the votes by then then send in the lynch mob in there to hang them, but we must stand our ground, be patience and support our party because the bleeding will end.

I cannot and will not abandon our party when they needed us the most, I worked too hard in 2006 working on campaigns for Congressional Democrats in PA-4 and PA-18, working with the PA young Democrats, canpaign for my State Rep and donate money that I don't even have to candidates across the country to abandon them after six months of the majority.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 04:53 PM
Response to Original message
42. Sorry but I remain in Panic Mode
Although Doug Adams is one of my all time favorites, I am in a state of panic.
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Heath Hatcher Donating Member (394 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #42
45. Well don't be
You have to have alot of patience in order to get this war to end, politics is about time and patience. You just have to relax, I am paniced just like you but at the same time I got patience enough that soon the war will end. Of course don't take advice from me, i'm a optimist, I not one of these members here that so pissed that they'll abandon Congress. No, your dealing with a glass half full type of guy.
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truedelphi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 01:09 AM
Response to Reply #45
52. It's all the hockey that keeps you happy then??
Whenever I open myself up to sports - I get really happy as well.

I guess I need to build that ping pong table I have been promising myself.

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Heath Hatcher Donating Member (394 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 01:55 AM
Response to Reply #52
54. I love hockey
It's the only sport that can truely excited. As much as I love playing it I love going to Pittsburgh Penguin games and watching it.

Very Relaxing.
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cyberpj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 06:46 PM
Response to Original message
47. Happy Towel Day. I couldn't believe I noticed this here today! May 25th is Towel Day you know.....
Hitchhiker, grab your towel and don't panic!

A towel ... is about the most massively useful thing an interstellar hitchhiker can have. ... You can wrap it around you for warmth as you bound across the cold moons of Jaglan Beta; you can lie on it on the brilliant marble-sanded beaches of Santraginus V ... wet it for use in hand-to-hand combat. ... Any man who can hitch the length and breadth of the Galaxy, rough it, slum it, struggle against terrible odds, win through and still know where his towel is, is clearly a man to be reckoned with." — The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams

This is how important a towel is: Douglas Adams was cremated with his. So says Richard Harris, Adams' friend, co-worker and now master of the site where hundreds of thousands of fans have gone to pay tribute to Adams. And fans across the globe vow to participate in Towel Day on the two-week anniversary of Adams' death at 49. Fans dreamed up the tribute and are promoting it on the Web.

Douglas Adams died on 11 May 2001. Adams was known as the creator of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series.

On 14 May of that year, one of his fans, D. Clyde Williamson, posted a tribute to Mr. Adams including a proposal that a date two weeks after his passing should be observed as Towel Day.

25 May continues to be observed annually as Towel Day as an ongoing tribute to Douglas Adams.

HOW TO CELEBRATE TOWEL DAY

On 25 May, carry a bath towel conspicuously with you for the day.

Answer all questions, "42."

Hang a banner that reads, "DON'T PANIC."

Use names from Adams' writings as nicknames for your friends and coworkers:
Arthur (Dent)
Ford (Prefect)
Great Green Arkleseizure
Grunthos the Flatulent
Humma Kavula
Marvin
Random (Dent)
Trillian
Slartibartfast
Zaphod (Beeblebrox)
Vogon (This is not an individual's name. Use it to refer to a class of people, as in, "The Vogons from corporate want you to return their call.")
The Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal

Read one of Adams' books.

Listen to a recording of radio broadcasts or watch a video recording of the television program or movie with your friends and their towels.

Take photographs of your activities and post on the Towel Day website:
http://www.towelday.kojv.net/




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ray of light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
49. This is best!
"So don't call your Democratic Representative or your Senator and bitch them out for cutting this deal -- call the Republicans and tell them Every Additional Soldier that Dies between Now and September is ON THEIR HEADS because they failed to support the Veto Override."


....that's what I did yesterday. I skipped calling the Dems. I called the moderate Republicans. (You know the ones who bragged about telling Bush that he's killing the Republican party...)

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Heath Hatcher Donating Member (394 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-25-07 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. Which moderate did you call
Charlie Dent, Fred Upton, Todd Platts who did you call?
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Heath Hatcher Donating Member (394 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 12:18 AM
Response to Reply #50
51. K&R
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ray of light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-27-07 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #50
63. I called a few. I called Snowe and Kirk.
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Heath Hatcher Donating Member (394 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 01:53 AM
Response to Original message
53. I agree with what you said on this
"Make those S.O.B's do the sweating - our team did good folks, we didn't get a touchdown, but we picked up some yardage - let 'em hit the showers until next round."

Yes our team did good, team liberal. Here's some stuff you be proud of. 226 Democrats voted in the bill 140 were against while 86 voted for it that's at whopping 61% of our party caucus thought that was a bad bill and the majority of the Dems that voted for it were moderate Blue Dog(33/44) and New Democrat Coalition members(19/43) while every single member of the liberal progressive caucus(68) and liberals unaffiliated members like Nancy Pelosi voted against this bill including 6 Blue Dog and 17 New Coalition members.

From here till September not only must we put the pressure on our fellow elected Democrats but moderate Republicans as well because until we get enough Republican on board to override a veto it will be much harder to get out of Iraq and they will turn because there all waiting till September to see what happens and those in swing districts see that the war hasn't changed at all they will be shaking in there boots and would be willing to buck the party to crossover and vote with us.

Here are the numbers (DC and District) of the GOP members of the Republican Main Street Partnership(the caucus of centrist Republicans) if any House member will crack it will be them.


* Judy Biggert, Illinois
DC- 202-225-3515
Willowbrook, IL- 630-655-2032

* Mary Bono, California
DC- 202-225-5330
Palm Springs, CA- 760-320-1076
Hemet, CA- 951-658-2562

* Ginny Brown-Waite, Florida
DC- 202-225-1002
Dade City, FL- 352-567-6707
Brooksville, FL (352) 799-8354

* Ken Calvert, California
DC- (202) 225-1986
Riverside (951) 784-4300
Las Flores (949) 888-8498
San Clemente (949) 496-2343

* Dave Camp, Michigan
DC (202) 225-3561
Midland (989) 631-2552
Traverse City (231) 929-4711

* Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia
DC (202) 225-2711
Charleston (304) 925-5964
Martinsburg (304) 264-8810

* Michael N. Castle, Delaware
DC (202) 225-4165
Wilmington (302) 428-1902
Dover (302) 736-1666

* Thomas M. Davis, Virginia
DC (202) 225-1492
Annandale (703) 916-9610
Woodbridge (703) 590-4599

* Charlie Dent, Pennsylvania
DC (202) 225-6411
Bethlehem (610) 861-9734
East Greenville (215) 541-4106

* David Dreier, California
DC (202) 225-2305
Glendora Phone: (626) 852-2626

* Vern Ehlers, Michigan
DC (202) 225-3831
Grand Rapids (616) 451-8383

* Rodney Frelinghuysen, New Jersey
DC (202) 225-5034
Morristown (973) 984-0711

* Jim Gerlach, Pennsylvania
DC (202) 225-4315
Exton (610) 594-1415
Wyomissing (610) 376-7630
Trappe Phone: (610) 409-2780

* Wayne Gilchrest, Maryland
DC (202) 225-5311
Chestertown (410) 778-9407
Salisbury (410) 749-3184
Bel Air (410) 838-2517

* Paul Gillmor, Ohio
DC (202) 225-6405
Tiffin (419) 448-9016
Defiance (419) 782-1996
Norwalk (419) 668-0206

* Kay Granger, Texas
DC (202) 225-5071
Ft.Worth (817) 338-0909

* David Hobson, Ohio
DC (202) 225-4324
Springfield (937) 325-0474
Lancaster (740) 654-5149

* Timothy V. Johnson, Illinois
DC (202) 225-2371
Bloomington (309) 663-7049
Champaign (217) 403-4690
Mt. Carmel(618) 262-8719
Charleston (217) 348-6759

* Randy Kuhl, New York
DC (202) 225-3161
Bath (607) 776-9142
Fairport (585) 223-4760
Olean (800) 562-7431

* Mark Kirk, Illinois
DC (202) 225-4835
Northbrook (847) 940-0202
Waukegan (847) 662-0101

* Ray LaHood, Illinois
DC (202) 225-6201
Peoria (309) 671-7027
Jacksonville (217) 245-1431
Springfield (217) 793-0808

* Steve LaTourette, Ohio
DC (202) 225-5731
Painesville (440) 352-3939

* Jerry Lewis, California
DC (202) 225-5861
Redlands (909) 862-6030

* Frank LoBiondo, New Jersey
DC (202) 225-6572
Mays Landing (609) 625-5008

* Jim McCrery, Louisiana
DC (202) 225-2777
Shreveport (318) 798-2254
Leesville (337) 238-0778

* Thomas Petri, Wisconsin
DC (202) 225-2476
Oshkosh (920) 231-6333
Fond Du Lac (920) 922-1180

* Todd Platts, Pennsylvania
DC (202) 225-5836
York (717) 600-1919
Gettysburg (717) 338-1919
Carlisle (717) 249-0190

* Jon Porter, Nevada
DC (202) 225-3252
Henderson (702) 387-4941

* Deborah Pryce, Ohio
DC (202) 225-2015
Columbus (614) 469-5614

* Jim Ramstad, Minnesota
DC (202) 225-2871
Minnetonka (952) 738-8200

* Ralph Regula, Ohio
DC (202) 225-3876
Canton (330) 489-4414
Medina (330) 722-3793
* Christopher Shays, Connecticut
DC (202) 225-5541
Bridgeport (203) 579-5870
Stamford (203) 357-8277

* Mike Turner, Ohio
DC (202) 225-6465
Dayton (937) 225-2843
Wilmington (937) 383-8931

* Fred Upton, Michigan
DC (202) 225-3761
Kalamazoo (269) 385-0039

* Greg Walden, Oregon
DC (202) 225-6730
Medford (541) 776-4646
Bend (541) 389-4408

* James T. Walsh, New York
DC (202) 225-3701
Syracuse (315) 423-5657
Palmyra (315) 597-6138

* Jerry Weller, Illinois
DC (202) 225-3635
Joliet (815) 740-2028

* Heather Wilson, New Mexico
DC (202) 225-6316
Albuquerque (505) 346-6781


Now i'm not saying that you can't call other Republicans (including your own Republican Congresscritter that's not on the list) to keep the pressure that's cool and go ahead and do so but my good guess the first to crack are the moderates, the one who face tough re-election bids (like Dent, Shays, Wilson and Welsh) those are the ones who could be more sympathetic to our cause. But also while we do that still keep the heat the Democrats espically the 86 who voted for it.

Remember we didn't get anywhere by sitting on our hands and doing nothing no sire, we got aheas because we got active, we called, we write, we got involved and that what we can do to end this occupation.

Remember be patience and keep the faith and by September we will have the edge, i'm very optimistic about it

Sincerely,
Heath Hatcher
DU Member
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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 02:05 AM
Response to Original message
55. We didn't have to pass ANYTHING. n/t
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Greyhound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 02:28 AM
Response to Original message
56. Piled Higher and Deeper.
Just keep ignoring what you know to be true...

...and above all, IGNORE THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!


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daveskilt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-26-07 10:15 PM
Response to Original message
58. not to take away from your content at all - but douglas adams AND BSG - happy thoughts
excellent use of the word fracking. and any douglas adams related post will get a good old K&R from me.
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eNeko Donating Member (12 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-27-07 12:07 AM
Response to Original message
59. I feel a little more calm now. "Don't panic" is always good to remember.
I'm still upset. I'm still disappointed that the Congress isn't using their power as an equal branch of government.

But you bring up a good point. I'd rather have something to do, instead of throwing my hands up in despair and frustration. Pressuring moderate Republicans is a good goal. Electing more Democrats so we can slap aside that smirking bastard's veto is a good goal. Thanks for the reminder that there's still things we can do, instead of stomping off the playground.
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Proud Liberal Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-27-07 12:55 AM
Response to Original message
60. Legislation wouldn't have demanded troop withdrawal until March 2008!
One thing that I think is important for everybody to remember that the legislation that Bush vetoed wouldn't have required withdrawal of our troops until around March 2008 anyway and I highly doubt that, if present circumstances continue and/or things get even worse, there's no way that the public (and probably not even the GOP) is going to be willing to allow our troops to stay any longer than that and will probably push to get our troops out of Iraq sooner rather than later. The Democrats DID send Bush a bill with a timetable showing the public where they stand. Unfortunately, Bush and a shrinking yet still substantial enough number of Republicans, being the control freaks that we know they are, objected to what was essentially a fairly minor restriction on our "mission" in Iraq and the Democrats simply couldn't get enough votes to override Bush's veto (although they DID try). While I disagree with what the Democrats actually did by passing a bill without a timetable and I just didn't buy all of the alarmist rhetoric that the the WH and the Defense Department were spewing about what kind of substantive effects not passing a supplemental funding would have actually had on
our troops, the political realities were probably too hard for the Democrats to ignore, especially since, apparently, there is not overwhelming public pressure and broad genuine support for a timetable for troop withdrawal....yet. But I believe that this problem will, ultimately, work itself out probably much sooner than March 2008 regardless of whether or not there is a "timetable". One thing that I've been perplexed about after listening to all of the slings and arrows being lobbed at the Democrats on this board and elsewhere is how easy the Democrats "cave", that they seem poll-obsessed, and change their minds too easy. Well, I agree that there are some battles that need to be fought (and sometimes even lost) but I would rather have leaders whom are occasionally willing to change their minds, accept the practical realities of situations, apologize for mistakes, and pay attention to the will of the public rather than leaders like Bush who characteristically refuse to adapt to changing circumstances in the face of new information, ignore the will of the people, and refuse to, even occasionally, admit mistakes. The Democratic Party's greatest strength AND challenge seems to be its natural diversity. However, I think that I would rather have a party that recognizes and supports a variety of independent thoughts, opinions, and beliefs than the more "cultish" nature of the modern GOP.
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ce qui la baise1 Donating Member (66 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-27-07 04:47 AM
Response to Original message
61. I see us dems as devided on this issue. Some want fighting
while others prefer to give the cons enough rope to hang themselves or a more peaceful way.
I think the fact is only time will tell. Bush has already set a timeline, Sept.
This bill wouldn't have stopped the war right away anyhow.
This war is not the only thing our congress has to think about, nor is it all we want in
the long run.
I don't want my reps to act like Cons or republicans. I prefer smart, sensible adults.
This is not an easy situation, it's like catching these bastards for all their crimes,
difficult and time consuming. We all want it now but we also want it to stick. Patience
is needed. YES IT HURTS
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cleveramerican Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-27-07 06:12 AM
Response to Original message
62. Have Faith
Thats what Abraham Lincoln said and its salient at this moment in time.

Abe in his famous Cooper Union Speech on the very divisive at the time issue of slavery said
"Let us have faith the right makes might" this says exactly how I feel about Iraq at this moment.


Protest, even violent protest is essentially an act of faith, faith in our system and in our basic decency as a nation. Faith that those who wield the power to change things DO CARE What we think, do want to do the right and sensible thing, do want to respond to the citizenries most pressing issues.


the basic goodness of our nations people are now and always our best hope.
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LWolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-27-07 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
64. I haven't panicked.
Why, when the latest shame is what I've come to expect as business as usual with the so called "leaders," would I panic when they remain true to form?

I haven't panicked, and I haven't succumbed to blind, unreasoning faith in the easter bunny, either.

My eyes are wide open, and I see bullshit almost everywhere I look.
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