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TPM: Zogby: Romney Leads Big in NH. Obama closing in on Hillary. Richardson up 8, Edwards down 8.

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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:11 PM
Original message
TPM: Zogby: Romney Leads Big in NH. Obama closing in on Hillary. Richardson up 8, Edwards down 8.
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2007/may/17...

Zogby: Romney Leads BIG In New Hampshire!
By Eric Kleefeld

Whoa: A new poll finds that Mitt Romney is the bona-fide frontrunner in the key primary state of New Hampshire with nearly double the support of both Rudy and John McCain! Zogby:

Romney 35%
McCain 19%
Rudy 19%

In the last poll, released on April 3, Romney tied John McCain for first, with each scoring at 25%.

Meanwhile, on the Dem side, there's also a surprise Bill Richardson has moved into a solid fourth place:

Hillary 28%
Obama 26%
Edwards 15%
Richardson 10%

Richardson's surge is possibly due to both his visits to the state and to his novel "job interview" themed ads, which have been running in New Hampshire since late last week.

Link to Zogby: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1302
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:12 PM
Response to Original message
1. Wow Richardson is a big surprise.
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
2. It was only a matter of time for Richardson
He has a lot going for him.
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NoodleBoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. that doesn't prove Romney is the frontrunner
the NH media market is dominated by Massachusetts, so they constantly hear about Mass politicians. When other NEers run for President, alot of campaigns and pros write off NH, because it's too big a hurdle to overcome and won't likely matter if the primary voters know not to get excited by the circumstances.

Aside from that, South Carolina is alot more important for the Republicans.
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. It does show momentum; Romney's up 10 points since April, McCain down 6, Giuliani, unchanged.
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SoxFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. Romney just had a big television buy
Heavy advertising on the local stations. Richardson is also running a spot, though not as heavily as Willard.
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Byronic Donating Member (379 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
4. Oh boy,
I hate polls. I've always hated polls. I hate it when they are right. I hate it when they are wrong.

The view from the bottom of this one is particularly disheartening.

Still, very early days.

Well done Bill Richardson. Getting on the air makes such a difference, but people obviously liked what they saw.

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IA_Seth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:21 PM
Response to Original message
5. Again, the undecideds.
Using these polls at this juncture for anything more than an educated guess is probably not the brightest move... so much will change between now and next winter (hell, look at what changed in the last 4 months).

Throw in the undecided contingent with the margin of error (4.5 points) and you can see that there is still plenty of slack to be picked up by any number of candidates.

Oh, and go Richardson! He isn't my first choice, but it's nice to see some 'second tier' love.
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Arugula Latte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 04:34 PM
Response to Original message
7. I wonder why Edwards isn't higher?
You'd think Edwards would be doing better in the polls. I know, it's months and months out, but, still ...

I'm kinda torn between Edwards and Obama.
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Because the STINKING media has been all over him about his money and a 400 dollar hair cut
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bklyncowgirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Richardson had a good month. Edwards had a bad month--that haircut thing unfortunately had legs.
Richardson's ads were cute and original and got him attention. He didn't shine in the first debate but didn't disgrace himself either. He did a good job on Jay Leno. People who are looking for someone with executive experience are going to take a good look at Richardson.

Edwards dopey haircut brouhaha hurt him. It's always bad when you do something that confirms a negative about you.
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calteacherguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #8
20. Political reality: The "stinking media" ain't gonna change.
The $400 haircuts won't go away. It will be used against him (it was already in the last Republican debate) if he is the nominee.
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 09:52 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. The other candidates have worse things to be used against them.
Edited on Thu May-17-07 09:52 PM by w4rma
But Edwards is the candidate the Republicans don't want to go up against in the general election.

The tactic is to try to knock Edwards out early and set up a Republican against a weak Democratic candidate like Hillary or Obama.
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SoxFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 07:02 PM
Response to Reply #7
14. Edwards not a good NH fit
New Hampshire is a suburban, white collar, reformist state. Edward's populist, old time religion doesn't translate well in a state full of software jockeys. Candidates who run populist or New Deal/Great Society campaigns usually do poorly in New Hampshire. Fred Harris, Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, and Tom Harkin all sputtered here. Obama seems to be gaining traction with the sort of folks who went for Paul Tsongas, Gary Hart and Bill Bradley.
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jcrew2001 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. Regionally speaking Clinton and Romney should do well in NH
due to voter familiarity with them and are comfortable with their Northeast liberal views for romney.
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bigdarryl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 05:37 PM
Response to Original message
9. DAMN!!! my man Richardson is making an impact in NH. as I said before....
this race isn't over by no means. all this talk about {by the pundits} that Hillary has this race locked up is BULLSHIT!!!!
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Herman Munster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 10:47 PM
Response to Reply #9
25. he's airing this ad in NH
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
10. Gobama!!!
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 06:23 PM
Response to Original message
12. That's great for Richardson. Glad to see it.
Glad to see multiple-choice Mitt doing well to.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. I dunno about the Mittster. He looks so...Presidential. And then he opens his stupid mouth, LOL!
Still though, I think he'll end up being da man to beat.
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illinoisprogressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 07:12 PM
Response to Original message
15. Obama is tied in NH. This is wonderful. Can't wait till he crushes Hillary
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Colobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. And he will! Just wait and have faith!
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elizm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Slow and steady wins the race...
...Have faith and 'hope'! :)
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. If Hillary can't win Iowa (Edwards or Obama close) or NH (Obama tied), she will
have some 'splainin' to do. The old "underperforming" meme will be on her tail and totally unforgiving. Forget Nevada - SC is a week away and, again, Obama within striking distance there, if not ahead there. Hillary may be in some trouble here folks!
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calteacherguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 07:27 PM
Response to Original message
19. I like that. Richardson's a strong candidate. nt
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tinfoilinfor2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-17-07 08:40 PM
Response to Original message
22. A whole year of this leap frogging left. Yawn.
I'm tired of it already. :boring: :boring: :boring:
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