Florida will wind up leading to smoke filled rooms in Denver

[Perky]

By moving their primary date to January 29th, (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and then South Carolina preceding it) Florida now becomes the must-win state going into mega-Tuesday a week later on February 5th. It is impossible to say who would win the Florida primary at this point on the democratic side, but you would have to think Guliani has a leg up on the GOP side with so many new york Republican transplants.


The calculus is different on the Democratic side. But if no one wins three out of the first four contests it is difficult to see how Florida could be a momentum builder going into mega Tuesday.

Some things to keep in mind: 30 primaries and caucuses by February 6th. That means everybody name stays on all those ballots at no additional cost to their campaigns. That means there will really be no winnowing of the choices in the first 30 contests

If Biden, Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel each Garner 2% and the big three have a mortal lock on 20% each and Richardson a Mortal lock on 10%. that means only 25% is up for grabs in any of the first five contests. So You have to suspect there will be no presumptive going into mega-Tuesday and perhaps no presumptive on 2/6.


That would likely mean big reassessment happens on the 6th but if there is no clear leaders (seems likely to me. The top 4 slug it out until the convention with no one having a majority of the delegates.

And that means an ugly brokered convention.

On the other hand, if someone gets over 35% in Florida. That will be your nominee.

[IA_Seth]

1. With so much front-loading...

What I see is a near impossibility that we will have anyone other than the top 3 becoming our nominee. With so many contests in such a compact timeframe money will be key, money that only huge campaigns like those of Clinton, Edwards, or Obama have access to.

I don't like where we are headed, where money will basically buy a nomination.

And no, I am not saying that any of those 3 aren't worthy, simply saying that a lesser-known candidates without the huge warchests will find it hard competing in 30 contests in a 2-3 week timeframe.

[primative1]

2. Why Nuance You Assertion ?

You state the obvious.
Its not "where we are going". Sadly we have already arrived.

[IA_Seth]

3. Ok then...

We are screwn!

Seriously, I suppose you are right, we ARE probably there. I am just hoping against hope that I am wrong.

[primative1]

4. Ah; you refer to Faith ...

I know many who rely on Faith. I will abstain, but on a bright note I agree that with FAITH you will someday get there, all the same.

[Perky]

5. Unfortunately, we have been in the same boat for the last several election cycles.

You can not win without commerical air time and organization and both takes money.