Early 2008 polls offer important clues

[PresidentObama]

"WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton's lead in the early polls may not be that reassuring if history is any guide. Republican hopeful Rudy Giuliani, however, is sitting pretty.

For at least three decades, Republicans have been far better than Democrats in early polls at getting behind the candidates who end up winning the party's presidential nomination.

Note that Edmund Muskie in 1972, George Wallace in 1976, Ted Kennedy in 1980, Gary Hart in 1988, Mario Cuomo in 1992 and Joe Lieberman in 2004 were early front-runners among Democrats. None won the nomination.

Republicans have picked the early front-runner in seven of the past 10 elections, according to Gallup polling. In the other three elections, Republican incumbents cruised to re-election.

<snip>

Why has the GOP been better at predicting winners?

"There is this sense among Republicans - a belief that it's a certain person's time to run for president," said Thomas Mann, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution. But the GOP track record is probably due more to chance and the Republicans' success at winning the White House since 1968, he said.

In 2008, neither party has a former vice president or president competing for the nomination for the first time in almost 80 years."

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/16781652.htm

[PresidentObama]

1. Kicking my own thread.

Thought it was interesting, and should be discussed!!

:kick:

[Clarkie1]

2. It is interesting. Anthing can happen.

Who the nominee with ultimately be in either party will depend not only on what the candidates (or potential candidates) do between then an now, but outside events over which they have no control and probably no one has even yet imagined.

[PresidentObama]

3. I thought it was interesting as well.

And just shows that just because it's Edwards, Obama, and Clinton now....in one year?!? Who knows!!

Things will change as the campaigns begin to take shape, and the debates take place. One tongue slip for the media to attack on and one of these candidates could drop off the mountain they're climbing.

It should be interesting to see where we are in one year!!

I can't wait to see who wins the nomination. We've got a great field of candidates, and some that may enter that would be wonderful ;)