Parsing the Polls: Likeability or electability, heart or head?

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
02/ 8/2007
Parsing the Polls: Likeability vs Electability

....Gallup posed a series of 15 statements and asked the sample to decide which best fit Obama, Clinton or Edwards. Trends are obvious. Clinton led on nine issues, Obama on six, Edwards on none.

The statements on which Clinton was the first choice of the sample can be generalized as dealing with competency. On the statement "is most qualified to be president," Clinton took 61 percent to 21 percent for Edwards and just 13 percent for Obama. Fifty seven percent of the sample said Clinton "would perform the best in debate," while 29 percent chose Obama and 10 percent chose Edwards. On the question of which candidate is the strongest leader, Clinton was the choice of nearly six in ten (59 percent), while 22 percent opted for Obama and 15 percent named Edwards.

The statements on which Obama shined measure personal qualities. Forty one percent said Obama "is the most likeable," as compared to 31 percent who chose Clinton and 24 percent who liked Edwards best. Voters also chose Obama as the candidate who would run the most positive campaign (39 percent for Obama, 36 percent for Clinton) and "has the highest ethical standards" (39 percent Obama, 28 percent Clinton) -- suggesting that he is well-positioned to run as a reform-minded outsider.

Of the four statements on which Edwards nudged out either Clinton or Obama for second place, two are rooted in a belief that he may be the most electable. On the question of which candidate has the best chance of winning the Democratic nod in 2008, Edwards took 22 percent -- well behind Clinton's 58 percent but ahead of Obama's 16 percent. Similarly, 27 percent chose Edwards as the Democrat best positioned to win the White House next year, 17 points behind Clinton but six points ahead of Obama.

So what does all of this data really mean? We're simplifying here, but it seems to suggest that the "head" of Democratic voters is with Clinton while the "heart" is on Obama's side....But, it's important to remember that the so-called "heart" vote is not lining up behind a single candidate. The February monthly poll on Daily Kos -- an unscientific survey but nevertheless a useful gauge of energy in the "netroots" -- shows Edwards in the lead with 26 percent (4,642 votes) and Obama trailing narrowly at 25 percent (4,503 votes). (It's worth noting that Clinton takes just four percent in the poll -- the same percentage of Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich.)

For the moment, Clinton is the unquestioned "head" candidate and would attract the lion's share of voters who see electability as the most important issue in choosing a nominee. Obama and Edwards are splitting the "heart" vote -- a trend that, if it continues, accrues to the benefit of Clinton.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/