A worrisome and serious question for DU'ers

[Parisle]

--- Certainly the alarms are sounding all over this board. Alarms over Bush's supposed looming intention of attacking Iran. Alarms about Bush's unitary executive usurpation of authority and suspension of Constitutional liberties,.. perhaps leading to martial law and detention of US citizens. And finally, dictatorship.

--- And each of these potentials has been substantiated with all manner of evidence and knowledgeable testimony. Expert predictions and projections have been numerous and terrifyingly persuasive. Hell,.. I believe 'em. I react. I'm politically active,.. I talk to my congressman,.. I write stuff here and there, including the Vermont Prior Dissent resolution. (The DU gave me a big yawn on that one) The lines are drawn, and I know which side I'm on. So why is there this persistent atmosphere of unreality about what is happening to our country? Is it just me?

--- Let's explore that question with a scenario, eh? Just speculative, Ok? Let's hypothosize that, in three or four weeks,.. all other political events, activities and trends having remained essentially static,... the Bush administration actually DOES attack Iran. It starts with Israeli planes bombing Iranian nuclear sites,.. the US military steps in to provide cover and back-up,.. and the shootin' match is on,... all in the space of... say, three hours. (For its own part, Iran manages to knock out a carrier group, and sends 225,000 troops flooding into Iraq.) Much of this could occur while America is asleep.

--- The predictable public and congressional outcry is met with a clampdown on the media, a call-up and "federalizing" of all National Guard units, a draconian curfew for all citizens, and the rounding up of a few political opponents,... all justified with choreographed BS about impending terrorist attacks. Got all that? And we're still only a few hours into it.

--- Now, the question I'm asking is not, "So,... holy crap,.. what do we do at this point?" No, instead I'm asking how many of us,.. even us vehement detractors of this administration,.. will at that point find ourselves saying, "Damn,... y'know I didn't think they would really do it?"

[The Magistrate]

1. None Of This Is Going To Happen, Sir

[oldtimecanuk]

2. Why do you say that none of this is going to happen? eom

[The Magistrate]

5. Because It Is Not, Sir

The Israelis are not going to make such a strike, certainly not in a few weeks. Massing a quarter million soldiers to "flood in" in the space of a night is not the work of a day or even several weeks: it is a massive undertaking requiring months that could not possibly go unremarked not only in reconnaisance but in the press. We will not wake up before Easter to find ourselves at war with Iran and the country under martial law. It is an entertaining fantasy, and no more.

[oldtimecanuk]

8. I wished that I could be as convinced.... But when I see an ...

armada of no less than 3 Carrier groups in the Gulf, that gives me cause to pause. We don't even know how many subs etc there may be in the area at this time......

ww

[The Magistrate]

9. Heavy Naval Forces Are Always Stationed There, Sir

Real preparation for action might well be to thin down the force imediately present, to present a lulling and luring appearance of weakness to a potential enemy, with the main body at a distance, yet still able to strike within a day's time.

[Parisle]

10. Point taken,.............."sir"

--- You're right about the troop deployment intervals, at least,. but I bet it wouldn't take "months." I don't know what the hell the Israelis are liable to do, and I don't know why you think you Do know. The civil clampdown stateside could certainly be pre-planned and ready to unveil. And finally, are you suggesting that, absent the rapid unfolding of events, somebody here could step in and prevent this?

[denverbill]

12. How much warning did we get before Israel hit Iraq's nuclear plant?

How much warning did we get before Reagan attacked Libya or Grenada? What warning was there that Bush was about to invade Panama?

I don't anticipate a pre-emptive invasion of Iran, but I think there's at least a 50% chance of either us, or Israel as our proxy, will hit Iran's nuclear facilities, with either conventional or nuclear weapons. That may also include a 'shock and awe' type aerial barrage to destroy Iran's capacity to retaliate against either Israel or US forces in Iraq, which could last weeks or months.

I have no clue what Iran's response to something like that would be, but I can't believe they would do nothing. Maybe they'll launch medium range missiles at US forces in Iraq, maybe they'll hit Israel. Maybe they'll mine the Gulf of Hormuz. Maybe they'll just close their oil spigots and let the price of oil cripple the world's economy. I don't think any of those options would help Iran any, and they would just make it more likely the US would ultimately invade.

The only other responses Iran would consider would be a massive terrorism campaign or a doubtfully successful attempt to isolate the US/Israel diplomatically (economic sanctions against Israel or the US, etc).

[Maraya1969]

3. I fear it happening and I do what I can but when I dwell too much on it

I freak. Maybe it is denial. But I feel like it is out of our control now. It is up to our congress and senate. I hope the HELL that they start impeachment because I think that is they only way to stop this fucking madman.

[Burma Jones]

4. This would be VERY bad for business

Remember, The Chimp's first direction to his fellow Americans after September 11, 2001 was to go shopping.

[Bluerthanblue]

7. that's what I was thinking- with the curfew, and the panic

that would ensue among the 'masses'- the economy would tank- (assuming people still had access to their money or IRA's or credit).

[Az]

6. The media has dulled the senses of this nation

In the past when people rose up to tell their government they were not happy the media would cover it. The people of the nation would see others out and protesting. They would see that others were not happy with the way things are and that they were not alone. They would then add their voice to the chorus and change would be made over time.

But these days the media only covers what is in their best interest to cover. And they frame it in such a way as to be even more advantageous to their position. Thus the protests do not get as much coverage as they used to and spin is put on whatever coverage is provided that takes the edge off the issue.

Thus when a protest occurs these days it amounts to a group of people standing around and shouting. While in the past it amounted to people being heard across the nation.

Without the media working For The People we are nullified. We are caught in a gilded cage. Silenced and muffled.

[stillcool]

11. I'm as ready as I will be...

and have come to the conclusion that what will be, will indeed be, and there's not a damn thing I can do to change anything. Life will continue...or not. We humans adapt to our surroundings. I don't think any reasonable person can predict our future, however near. Their seems to be a large amount of support, among those with the assets to sway policy, to this entire endeavor. Until there is serious opposition from the global movers and shakers, I see the road before me just as the one behind. Of course, I am not at all sure that the picture I see reflects reality in any way.