Bush's saber rattling at Iran is to take the focus of Iraq

[ProSense]

January 14, 2007

Getting It Right in Iraq

JK on CNN - Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer

JK pulled no punches in his discussion with Wolf Blitzer on Late Edition this morning. He repeated his call for a firm deadline for withdrawal and referred to the ISG report's outline of a withdrawal process as a key consideration. He said again that there needs to be an immediate international effort between Iraq and all of its neighbors to reach an accord which will provide stability to the region. Important points that, as Mr. Blitzer acknowledged, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/28/opinion/28kerry.html?ex=1277611200&en=ca7beaac0e110f91&ei=5088">he's been saying for a long time.

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There are lot of issues in the region, there is a war in Afghanistan too, but resolving Iraq, ending the occupation of that country is a major priority of the Congress. Senator Kerry, knows the stakes and Congress' role.

December 20, 2006

Statement of Sen. Kerry and Sen. Chris Dodd on Today’s Meeting with Syrian President Assad

Damascus -- Earlier today Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Senator John Kerry (D-MA), both senior members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus for over two hours. The following is their statement:

“As part of our fact finding trip to Syria, earlier today we met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The conversation was open and direct and covered all the major issues confronting the region. As senior Democrats on the Foreign Relations Committee, we felt it was important to make clear that while we believe in resuming dialogue, our message is no different: Syria can and should play a more constructive role in the region.

“We conveyed our strong belief that only concrete and verifiable actions by the Syrian government would help convince Americans that Syria is willing to change course.

“Specifically, we told President Assad that in our view, key issues include:

* Controlling Syria’s borders with Iraq, verifiably and concretely working to stop the flow of funds, insurgents, and weapons into Iraq.
* Ending the supply of weapons and funds to Hezbollah, Hamas, and other extremist organizations, using its influence to press for the release of Israeli soldiers currently being held by Hezbollah and Hamas, and working to elicit a commitment by Hamas to accept Israel’s right to exist.
* Respecting Lebanon’s territorial and political sovereignty and independence, complying with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, and fully cooperating with the ongoing investigations into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and member of Parliament Pierre Gemayel.


“President Assad indicated that he was willing to seek common ground and explore issues of mutual interest.

“We concluded our meeting by urging President Assad to consider taking concrete and verifiable actions that will validate his expressed view that Syria supports a stable and sovereign Iraq, a two state solution to the Arab Israeli conflict, and a stable Lebanon.

“We concluded that our conversation was worthwhile, and that the Baker Hamilton Commission’s recommendation of resuming direct dialogue with Syria should be pursued. We intend to debrief the Administration in hopes that they will see the merit of this approach.”

January 4, 2007

A crucial time for saving Lebanon's fragile democracy

The Boston Globe
John F. Kerry

EVERYWHERE I traveled throughout the Middle East this winter, the feeling was inescapable that the region could explode at any time. The threat of three simultaneous civil wars that King Abdullah of Jordan spoke of is real, and perhaps the most imminent danger -- in Lebanon -- is the least understood.

Lost in the shadows of Iraq, the struggle to save the fragile democracy born of the Cedar Revolution has reached a moment of truth. If America does not act now, this key front in the broader struggle between moderates and extremists for the future of the Arab world will be lost -- and the consequences will long be felt throughout the region. The radicals' ambitions for overthrow move from Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in Lebanon to President Mahmound Abbas in Ramallah to Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki in Iraq. They are determined to achieve a clean sweep.

Anyone who has longed for a George Washington or Thomas Jefferson to emerge and lead the fight for democracy in the Middle East should come to Beirut and meet the patriots who have made incredible sacrifices for a free and independent Lebanon.

There is the son of slain former prime minister Rafik Hariri. There is the Cabinet minister whose husband was assassinated soon after becoming president, and the minister of defense, who after 12 surgeries still bears the scars of an assassination attempt. There is the mother of recently slain 34-year-old Lebanese parliamentarian Pierre Gemayel, who said to me simply: "We pay a high price for sharing what you believe in," and ask yourself whether we are paying her the debt owed for our shared beliefs.

At the forefront of this struggle is Siniora, the prime minister of Lebanon, who has stood up to a challenge that many extremists thought would bring down his government. Weakened by this summer's war, Siniora is effectively under siege by Hezbollah, which has brought hundreds of thousands of demonstrators to the streets of Bierut and shut down the government with the mass resignation of its ministers.

To provide the support he needs, we must recognize and adapt to the new realities on the ground. We've lost 3,000 American lives and invested more than $300 billion in hopes of forcibly birthing democracy in Iraq -- while largely ignoring Lebanon, where democratic institutions already have a foothold. Success there -- and across the Middle East -- ultimately depends more on winning over civilian populations with basic goods and services than defeating armies with sophisticated weapons and technology. New York's street-wise mayor Fiorello LaGuardia proclaimed, "There is no Republican way to clean a street." This is Politics 101: If you don't deliver services, you don't get the support of the people.

Yet today, the forces of radicalism are doing a far better job than the moderates in making the most basic connections with restive populations. In Lebanon, Iran has seized the opportunity to win over the population by channeling some $500 million in reconstruction funds through Hezbollah -- over twice as much as we have. In fact, Iran is doing more in rebuilding Lebanon than Washington is doing in rebuilding New Orleans.

We must change this dynamic by dramatically increasing economic assistance -- and pressing others in the international community to do the same -- and ensuring that Lebanese see that they can count on their elected leaders. And we must redouble our efforts to strengthen the Lebanese military, which has earned the trust of the people but lacks the strength to confront Hezbollah.

The key to Lebanon's future lies in getting Syria to truly respect Lebanese sovereignty. The money and weapons that empower Hezbollah come primarily through Syria, which uses proxies like Hezbollah to advance its hegemonic designs. They must be convinced to change course, including by ensuring that UN Resolution 1701 -- which again calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah -- is fully implemented.

To test the Syrians directly, as the Baker-Hamilton Commission suggested, Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and I met with President Bashar al- Assad for more than two hours. The conversation confirmed my belief that engagement with Syria could be useful in advancing our objectives across the region. The Syrian leadership will act according to its own self-interest. The challenge is to get Syria's leaders to make a strategic decision to change direction, and shift their allegiance away from Iran.

This requires a package of incentives that will provide real benefits for playing a more constructive role and disincentives that will undermine their interests -- if not endanger their survival -- if they do not. These would be implemented incrementally, based on verified facts on the ground.

This comprehensive approach, similar to the one used with North Korea and Iran, must include the full participation of moderate Arab countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia -- which, like Syria, have largely Sunni populations -- as well as Turkey. There is no guarantee that this approach will save Lebanon and turn Syria into a positive force in the region -- but the current policy only guarantees more of the same.

Lebanon teeters on the brink of disaster -- but its leaders refuse to surrender. As Amine Gemayel, the former president of Lebanon, said in explaining why he is running to replace his son in Parliament, "We keep going. We keep fighting. We keep struggling." The question is whether we will be a real partner in this struggle.

John F. Kerry is a US senator from Massachusetts.

Ask yourself this: Imagine a hypothetical situation in which an armed conflict has gone disasterously awry, resulting in a devastating and spiraling civil war in a major Middle Eastern nation and profound harms to both U.S. troops and our nation's long-term foreign interests. Over 70% of the U.S. public concludes that the President's proposal to escalate the conflict will only make the disaster worse, and is for that reason a terrible mistake. Over two-thirds of each House of Congress -- supermajorities that include numerous members of the President's own party -- are willing to vote to forbid him from taking such a fateful step.[/div>

[ProSense]

1. Bush-Cheney out of control, still lying.

Bush-Cheney out of control, still lying.

[ProSense]

2. Foiled Dreams

Foiled Dreams

Ed Kilgore's note so concerned "that the administration is about to deliberately widen the Iraq war by provoking Tehran and Damascus into armed conflict." After all, "where the hell is the Pentagon going to get the resources for a regional war?" Well, I'd say they'd get them from the Air Force and the Navy, hence the significance of appointing a naval officer to run CENTCOM. Certainly the argument that provoking a military confrontation with Iran isn't going to happen because such a provocation would be a very bad idea in light of the objective constraints on the American military strikes me as unconvincing. Sometimes leaders initiate extremely poor policies. George W. Bush happens to have a history of initiating such policies.

David Sanger at The New York Times, meanwhile, is not in the conspiracy theory business. He notes that while "administration officials say the goal is limited to preventing Iranians from aiding in attacks on American and Iraqi forces inside Iraq." Nevertheless, "in recent interviews and public statements, senior members of the Bush administration have made it clear that their agenda goes significantly further, toward foiling Iran’s dream of emerging as the greatest power in the Middle East." Clearly, I think, for now the hope is that foiling Iran's dreams of regional power can somehow be accomplished by raiding consulates and hoping there are ponies inside. Nevertheless, if the goal is to check Iranian regional power, that means wider war sooner or later.

Sanger's article:

News Analysis

Opening a New Front in the War, Against Iranians in Iraq

A soldier guarded a building in Erbil, Iraq, where five Iranians were arrested in an American raid.

By DAVID E. SANGER
Published: January 15, 2007

WASHINGTON, Jan. 14 — For more than two years after Saddam Hussein’s fall, the war in Iraq was about chasing down insurgents and Al Qaeda in Iraq. Last year it expanded to tamping down sectarian warfare.

Over the past three weeks, in two sets of raids and newly disclosed orders issued by President Bush, a third front has opened — against Iran.

Administration officials say the goal is limited to preventing Iranians from aiding in attacks on American and Iraqi forces inside Iraq. But in recent interviews and public statements, senior members of the Bush administration have made it clear that their agenda goes significantly further, toward foiling Iran’s dream of emerging as the greatest power in the Middle East.

In an interview on Friday, before she left on her latest Middle East trip, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice described what she called an “evolving” strategy to confront “destabilizing behavior” by Iran across the region. Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, said Sunday on the NBC News program “Meet the Press” that the United States was resisting an Iranian effort “to basically establish hegemony” throughout the region.

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Iraqi official seeks release of Iranians