NEW Senate Races Gallup Polls!!! MY, MO, NJ, RI, TN, VA

[cnlst8]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-10-05-state-races_x.htm

In Summary:

Likely Voters (Register Voters)

Maryland : D-Cardin 54% (48%), R-Steele 39% (36%), Others 1%

Missouri : D-McCaskill 48% (44%), R-Talent 45% (39%), Others 2%

New Jersey : D-Menendez 46% (39%), R-Kean 43% (34%), Others 3%

Rhode Island : D-Whitehouse 50% (49%), R-Chafee 39% (34%), Others 3%

Tennessee : D-Ford 50% (46%), R-Corker 45% (36%), Others 1%

Virginia : R-Allen 48% (43%), D-Webb 45% (37%), Others 2%

[deadparrot]

1. Go McCaskill!

I hope she can pull it off. My state needs some sort of Democratic representation.

[Broken_Hero]

8. no doubt on that...go Claire...you got my vote...:) nt

[Sherman A1]

35. Agreed

I am voting for Claire, but Talent has an awful lot of money. Don't forget the MTP debate on Sunday Morning.

[AllegroRondo]

45. Talent is going all out with his negative ads

looks like its not working that well for him!

[satya]

46. My authoritarian conservative mom is voting for McCaskill.

This may well be the first time she's ever voted for a Dem. Stem cell research was the tipping point for her.

I'm guessing my dad will be voting the same way, but he'd never admit it.

[hsher]

58. Wow

Wow :toast:
Maybe we WILL win this. I'm scared to even hope for it.

www.yourmorningleibowitz.blogspot.com
Yer Daily Show comic strip

[RayOfHope]

50. Here's hoping Claire will kick no-talent's ass! n/t

[WhiteTara]

51. she doesn't seem to be too interested

in some parts of the state at all. Couldn't even bring road signs and so few house signs they don't seem to care. But we need the numbers. Hope she doesn't turn out to be a dino.

[gulliver]

56. She debates Talent on MTP this Sunday.

Go Claire!

[snowbear]

2. Nothing on Pennsylvania?

Gotta kick Santorum to the curb!!

[dicknbush]

9. I don't think anyone expects Ricky to wim...

Why bother polling. Each poll lately seems to be worse news for Little Ricky!

[cnlst8]

10. Don't worry. Santorum is almost finish.

I follow PA a lot since i'm from Pittsburgh and every poll even the Rep. interal polling Santorum is trailing by 10%.

[snowbear]

21. That's good to know cnlst8 !!

What a year.. the penguins are winning and Ricky is losing!

~~

[cnlst8]

28. WOOT Penguins :)

Pittsburgh Penguins got a new owner, yesterday. Too bad I think he gonna move the team to Ontario next year. :( /cry

[LynneSin]

47. A steaming pile of freshly laid dog shit has a better chance of winning

in Pennsylvania than Rick Santorum.

[KingFlorez]

3. Looks like there will be some good pickups

And it helps that the two Democratic held seats appear safe.

[Rowdyboy]

4. Every race is moving in the right direction except Macaca....Why do his

numbers stay strong? I don't get it. At least the margin is tightening, and he is under 50%, but DAHM, he's such a prick he should be fighting to break 40% of the vote, not hovering at 48%.

[Ediacara]

14. Webb was in the lead right after macaca, but Allen rebounded...

...at one point almost 10% above Webb. This polling is actually moving in the right direction as they're now within the MOE. Check this graphic out from electoralvote.com:



And this more complete polling data from wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_U.S._Senate_election%2C_2006#Polling

[spag68]

30. Allen

Did it ever occur to you that his numbers represent fellow bigots? There are still too many there still on the confederates should have won side. here's hoping they wake up and notice that it is 2006, not 1856.

[Larry Allen]

62. It was just a language problem

It wasn't the racial slur in the macaca remark, it was the french. Once deer heads stuffed in mailboxes and use of the N-word came out, Virginians seem to be saying, now here's a boy that speaks our language.

Since it is unlikely that the commonwealth is going to rethink racism in the next four weeks, the rest of us must be prepared to rethink Virginia.

[JerseygirlCT]

42. Seems like Foley gave him a boost

Before Foley, the talk and focus was on Allen and his racism. Now he's out of the limelight.

[rockymountaindem]

5. That's great, but

WTF, Virginia???

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. Allan used to be quite popular in Virginia, AND he has $$$

Allan is all over the airwaves from what I can understand, and Webb has not been. Until the last few weeks Webb wasn't getting anywhere near the same massive influx of funds that Allan could always count on. This is one race that activists should prioritize giving money too. A Webb win in Virginia would be huge, this was never a seat that the National Democrats seriously thought we had any chance of winning. Webb could give us control of the Senate, and he is capable of hitting Allan very hard, in ways that will reverberate nationally for all Democrats, if he has the funds to do so. The National press core has Virginia as their back yard.

[cnlst8]

25. Agree. Webb needs to get on the airwaves more.

Due to lack of funding in the beginning-middle of this race, Allen has a media blitz and was allowed him to dictate his as well as his opponents image for good and bad. A lot of Virgian still don't know what issues he sstands for except that he is Allen's opponent. Maybe Webb new influx of money will help counter this.
Also another problem, according to the previous Rasmusseun poll earlier, 22% of black voters (which make up ~20% of Virginia votes) are supporting Allan even after his past racial troubles. This is mainly b/c of black church leaders support of Allen on his views the marriage amendment added to the ballot (i think?). Weeb needs to win a lot of those voters back if he wants to win.

Here a clip of Webb of CNN on 10/5 for your viewing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn1bIycOogc

[Lasher]

61. Webb isn't popular enough to take advantage of Allen's troubles

That's what a friend of mine told me and it makes sense. Negatives will only carry you so far most of the time. But we shall see. The macaca incident has faded somewhat but the Foley scandal is pervasive. And I sure would like to see Webb get an influx of cash so that he and Allen would be on a level playing field in that respect, at least in the final days before the election.

However this race turns out, Virginia Democrats should be proud. It wasn't even supposed to be competitive, and look how far they've come.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

40. Jesus Christ!

I knew the Republicans had fucked up, but Sweet Jesus that is just unbelievable.

[snowbear]

6. Also... Montana is a VERY likely pickup!

Jon Tester is beating the living daylights outta Conrad Burns!

[Ediacara]

11. I think Montana is a more likely pickup than Pennsylvania

Although I'd rate both of them as about 99% chance of dems winning. Burns has resorted to flat out lying in his ads, and it's unsubtle in a very shoot-himself-in-the-foot way.

[snowbear]

16. SOOoooOOO you're saying SICKY RICKY will win?

Damn you Dino!

Read this new CNN article that came out today ....

"VOTERS JUST DON'T LIKE SANTORUM"

"HERSHEY, Pennsylvania (AP) -- Rick Santorum has spent 12 years in the Senate -- and millions of dollars on TV ads for a third term. Yet a lot of Pennsylvania voters just plain don't like him.

Polls show Santorum's approval rating is in the 30s, just about what it was a year ago. Roughly the same number of voters view him unfavorably as favorably.

Questions over the use of Pennsylvania tax dollars to pay for the cyber schooling of his six children in Virginia continue to dog him. Anger lingers over comments he made in a book last year criticizing some working parents, as well as statements he made in opposition to same-sex marriage and in support of keeping Terri Schiavo alive.

"Santorum's real problem is Santorum," said Clay Richards, a Quinnipiac University pollster."

More ----------> http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/05/santorum.spopularity.ap/

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Even Forbes says "Santorum Struggles to Win Voters Hearts" in today's article >>> http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/feeds/ap/2006/10/05/ap3070137.html

[Ediacara]

18. LOL, no

I think Tester winning is a 99.1% chance and Casey winning is a 99.0% chance.

I must say though, I wish that people would stop creating new and horrible meanings for the word "Santorum," as my mother's maiden name is a slight varient on his (a different ending).

[snowbear]

19. Ok then....

I love you again.

[Ediacara]

20. Yay!

And would you believe my grandma's maiden name on my dad's side is a varient of Scalia? Why do the two most evil Italians in US politics have to be possibly distantly related to me? :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry: :puke: :cry:

[snowbear]

22. Hmmm..

Maybe we could find a new nickname for you..

Just kidding!

Better get to work tracing them family roots Dino!

[Ediacara]

7. Rock on! Glad to see MO, NJ, RI, and TN gaps widening

And I'm glad that the VA gap is within the MOE. I think we can still pick VA up after Allen's bizaro recovery...

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

12. Go Menedez!!!

[LynneSin]

48. Have you seen his latest campaign ad on TV

In a nutshell - We need to get out of Iraq

http://www.menendez2006.com/video/senator_ad/

He's had another great ad about the New Jersey ports and how Bush tried to sell them to a foreign country.

Bob is going to win that. NJ dems come out behind when the race starts but always pull in a strong finish

[HarukaTheTrophyWife]

52. Yeah, his ads are good.

My family is pretty much Republican, but Menendez has their votes. He grew up in Union City with my parents and my dad used to work with him, so at least with my family, he scores votes from both parties.

[snowbear]

13. Webb campaign reports they are raising $1 million dollars a month !!

WOW!

Also says the author, Stephen King is campaigning for him!

http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/dp-44812sy0oct05,0,6494762.story?coll=dp-news-local-final

[spooky3]

36. Here in NoVA I had seen 1 Webb ad on TV until this week

Now we are finally seeing a few.

Meanwhile Felix Junior has been pounding the airwaves for months.

It's good to see Webb closing the gap and closing fast.

[Zynx]

17. Now that's ass poundage right there.

[Tiggeroshii]

23. This is a guarantee of 5 seats if these numbers stick.

Ford is everyday solidifying his lead, and McCaskill also seems to be pushing ahead. Whitehouse is beginning to get a very strong lead over Chaffee and if the numbers in Montana and Pennsylvania stick then we've got ourselves at least a five seat gain. It's hard to say how reliable the polls in Ohio are considering the voting is the most unreliable of any state. I have never really seen Ohio as a state we can count on considering the results and humongous irregularities in the 2004 and 2005 elections.

[Zynx]

24. I count six gains and two holds.

NJ seems to be shifting back even with all of Menendez's scandals.

[Tiggeroshii]

32. the holds are inevitable...

[sandnsea]

33. We need VA or AZ

I do not not not want a 50/50 senate, especially if we have to depend on Nelson and Landrieu, particularly, for votes.

[Zynx]

37. Six gives us 51.

That is a historic achievement.

[sandnsea]

44. 44+6=50

So I'm confused on that number.

[Zynx]

54. One indie who caucses with us.

[sandnsea]

55. Jeffords is retiring

Sanders should be taking that seat. So does that make 45, and then the other 6 listed? MT, OH, PA, MO, RI, TN - yeah, I guess it does. COOL!!! I was thinking Jeffords was part of the 44.

[Zynx]

57. Yeah. For all calculations just assume we have 45 seats.

That makes it much easier. ;-)

[GetTheRightVote]

26. Please let this numbers become reality thru voting, Go Dems !!

:kick:

[Tellurian]

27. Checking in Rhode Island..

Whitehouse is coming on strong and telling it like it IS.

His message hits all the key issues--Iraq, WH Corruption, Health Care, Social Security...

Chafee is a very dear and likeable man. His message is soft and relaxed.

His message is clear and quite moving.."He's Stuck in the middle with You.."
and he has been all along. I think he would like to kick back and watch from the sidelines.

And after the elections, helping Whitehouse, perhaps smoothing out his senatorial transition;
even offering his services to help him achieve his goals!

[snowbear]

29. Hey Jerseyittes... Gotta question....

How much does "Joysey" like their NJ Devils??

I have a very close friend who plays for them who is also hispanic.. I should call him and see if he'll make a campaign appearance for Menendez?

I have a feeling he would !!

[wiley]

34. Are you insane?

What a question. Of course we love The Devils.

[Senator]

39. I'd be surprised...

...if he were willing.

The reality is that pro athletes have to be very careful about their public images. It's very risky to anger any segment of the population. And historically, hockey teams have exercised a large amount of control over their team members in that regard.

It's not a particularly modern or sophisticated culture they're in. Particularly their fandom.

That said, if he would be interested, don't hesitate to contact me directly to provide any help I can.

--

[w4rma]

31. Go Webb! He is closing the gap. (nt)

[NJmaverick]

38. OMG! Virginians still prefer a blatant racist?!?!

That is unfricken believable!

[Zynx]

41. Knocking off an incumbent, particularly a *previously* popular one,

is not easy.

[SaveElmer]

43. Up until Macaca...Felix was the second most popular politician...

In the state, just behind Mark Warner...

Webb was virtually unknown...

That Webb has nearly caught up to him is quite astounding...the money is now flowing, and Webb has morphed himself into a very good campaigner...

Still a month to go...with Webb's campaign improving every day!

[LynneSin]

49. I've been to Virginia and unfortuately there are plenty more like Allen

Which is a shame because there are so many great folks from that state!

[demdiva]

53. Thanks!

[fujiyama]

59. Some good numbers

I was always very skeptical about MO and TN, but it looks very encouraging. VA looks like it will be difficult. It's not impossible, but I'm not going to keep my hopes up about kicking that racist ass hole out but then again the gov. race was close to the end, so Webb certainly has a chance.

I'm also happy about the lead Whitehouse has kept. I really would like to see Chafee lose. He made his bed with the repukes and had plenty of opportunities to switch over. He had his chance.

[farmboxer]

60. Bush & Cheney are not concerned about losing elections because

of the Republican manufactured and programmed voting machines. The fix is probably already still in. Republicans know they have already won. It's the voting machines. Nothing was done about them, until now, which is too late. I hope I am wrong, but three elections have been fixed and the MSM will never admit they were fixed. Repubs do not want exit polls, voting counting in public, and no paper trail, etc., this worries me. How in the Hell could anyone vote for Allen?! Webb should win, but there are enough machines to give it to Allen. I heard on the VA Tech station the night before the election that Chuck Robb was ahead by 10 points, yet he lost big. How? We do our Dem leaders not talk about the fixed elections and voting machines? A few have, but........

Whatever, I will vote if I have to crawl to the polls to do such. America is like France before the revolution. Damn, I hope I am wrong about the elections being fixed once again, but Republican are very dirty and know that nothing will be done. Some are waking up, but I just hope there are enough.

Again, I "Will" vote a straight Democrat ticket and the machines will not discourage me from voting, but I do worry a lot. Esp. about our Dem leaders not mentioning past fixed elections. America had a coup! Why nothing is said about it on MSM, even our leaders say nothing. If we do win, I will be so happy. I will lose that sick feeling within my stomach.

[gasperc]

63. let's swamp the polls

if the races aren't close they have a harder time cheating, ie they have to manipulate and manufacture alot more voters which can easily be detected by analysis