you can drop an apple off a tower and it will descend ... you can even "know" what its rate of descent will be ... you can boil water and "know" the temperature at which it will turn from liquid to gas ... and so on ... we've developed very accurate instruments that can measure such things ...
but with human conduct, not so much ...
so, you ask for "facts" as to why we are in Iraq ... and theories, as you correctly point out, are not facts until there is proof ...
but what standard of proof could exist in such circumstances? would the testimony of insiders suffice? if they testified that bush went into Iraq to cater to Big Oil, would this suffice? if we had tapes of bush actually saying that would that suffice? in the course of human events, many things become accepted as "truths" because we find the theories credible ... often, we cannot "know" the intent of those directing policy ...
and, on this, i would not accept the requirement to have "facts" as the standard ... or, more accurately, i would not require "facts" to define the motivations of those in power ...
Big Oil has had all-time record profits since the invasion of Iraq took place ... can i cite that fact and then automatically link that to bush's motivation? not by the standard of proof you've defined ... on the other hand, wouldn't we be fools to not accept the likelihood of that linkage?
and i could cite this article:
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0823-28.htm that makes a pretty clear case for GREED and MONEY and the MIC being the motivation for the war ...
here's an excerpt:
While Americans understand that making money motivates McDonald's or Wal-Mart, and some are concerned about businesses donating large sums to influence politicians, most are unaware of how the profit motive helps shape U.S. foreign policy.
so, take a case where the guy pushing the agenda has a major conflict of interest because he's pushing a corporate agenda ... and extend the argument to show a clear linkage between campaigns he helped finance and how those reps eventually voted ... is there absolute proof or any "facts" that prove that those reps did NOT believe the invasion of Iraq was really necessary? the answer is that we cannot know what was in their heads regardless of what they've said or who funded them or anything else ... in the end, they either went to war for a purpose they considered to be in the national interest or they understood they were catering to special interests ... there are no facts that can determine their "private" beliefs and thoughts ... maybe if we could invent some kind of brain scanner ...
in the end, then, we are left to make our judgments on what we believe ... we use a "preponderance" of the evidence ... as the article in the link i provided suggested: follow the money ... when i see an administration flush to the gills with oilmen, when i see record oil profits, when i see soaring poll numbers for bush right after the invasion, when i see Democrats cowering because they could not criticize during a time of war, when i see a complicit media because to do otherwise was unpatriotic and would have jeopardized careers, when i see coffins hidden from public view to supress the truth, and when i see all power flow to one party and the voices of dissent effectively stifled, then, at least for me, i have all the preponderance i need ...
facts? we don't need no stinkin' facts ...