WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
....* Will the "netroots" turn out? Lamont's campaign has been fueled by the liberal blogosphere (Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas Zuniga appeared in a Lamont television ad), but it remains to be seen whether that online activism translates into off-line votes in Connecticut. The party's establishment remains unconvinced, pointing out that the army of volunteers on the ground for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in Iowa during the 2004 presidential race did not deliver on caucus night. Lieberman is relying on a more traditional get-out-the-vote effort managed by organized labor. (He has been endorsed by the state's AFL-CIO.) But Lieberman has pulled some of his funds from his GOTV efforts in recent days to flood the airwaves with ads defending himself against charges that he is Republican-lite. In a late summer primary, turnout would typically be low, but given the attention paid to this race in the state (and nationally), traditional voting patterns may not apply.
* Did Lamont peak too soon? With five days before the primary, Lamont led Lieberman by 13 points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll. Four days later, Lamont's lead had shrunk to six points. Lamont remains in the driver's seat, but it should be worrisome to his campaign that his lead was cut in half in less than a week. Are voters who were initially enthused about Lamont's hot rhetoric against the war in Iraq sobering up and deciding to stick with Lieberman? Incumbents (especially those in the Senate) rarely lose by wide margins no matter the political environment or their own problems. Still, if political conventional wisdom holds, Lamont should be the nominee. Voters who remain undecided until the final day of the race tend to move overwhelmingly for the challenger. Even if this trend is tempered somewhat, Lamont is still in strong position.
* Do newspaper endorsements matter? And if so, which ones? Lieberman's campaign has spent the last few days touting the fact that he has received the endorsement of every major newspaper in Connecticut. He is running a radio ad in the race's final hours touting the backing of the Hartford Courant, Connecticut Day and New Haven Register among others. While Lamont has been shut out by the big Connecticut newspapers, he won the backing of the New York Times -- a not insignificant fact in a state where many voters read the Times as their daily newspaper (especially in the affluent 4th District that Lamont calls home.) Lamont is making sure potential voters know where the Old Gray Lady stands on the race, noting the paper's endorsement in a direct-mail piece that hit mailboxes Monday informing voters of their closest polling place. Will undecideds be swayed to back Lieberman because of his endorsements from the state's newspapers? Or will it further cement the idea that Lieberman is the establishment choice in a time when voters have soured on the status quo? (Ok, that's three questions in one, but we couldn't help ourselves.)
* Who wins the black vote? Less than one in every ten Connecticut residents is African American, according to the 2000 census, but black voters could be the crucial bloc in today's election. Lamont has enjoyed considerable support from prominent black leaders, including Rep. Maxine Waters (Calif.), actor Danny Glover and Revs. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. Lieberman has made certain to remind voters that he was an advocate of civil rights for blacks in the early 1960s and has his own group of elected black officials on board, including Rep. John Lewis (Ga.). Former President Bill Clinton's support for Lieberman could also influence how African Americans vote today as Clinton is a beloved figure in the black community.
* How soon do the rats jump off the ship if Lieberman loses?...
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
