New CT Rasmussen: Ned ahead by 10, TIED UP in 3-way

[Rose Siding]

A third poll has now shown Ned Lamont ahead of Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut Democratic primary for United States Senate. This time, Rasmussen shows Lamont with a solid 51-41 lead (currently, the poll is only available for subscribers to Rasmussen). The previous Rasmussen poll, conducted in mid-June, showed Lieberman ahead 46-40.
....
In a three way race, Rasmussen shows Lamont and Lieberman tied at 40% each, with the Republican at 13%.....

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/7/22/132827/508

[msongs]

1. if the repubs vote for joe, bye bye Ned, so.....

lamont has to get 50% plus one to guarantee a win looks like.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[Rose Siding]

2. How do you mean?

Does CT have run-off voting?

[Pab Sungenis]

4. No....

...but the Republican (Schlesinger) is a total sleaze, and the Republicans would rather have Holy Joe than a progressive in that seat. They're going to abandon the party line and vote for Joe in a three way race.

Plus, it looks like the scene is being set for Schlesinger to drop out shortly after the primary over a gambling scandal, and that way the Republicans can have Joe switch parties and put him up as a replacement candidate. Watch carefully, it's going to happen.

[Nite Owl]

5. Isn't there another Republican

a woman who is for getting the troops out of Iraq that also wants to run? Can't remember her name but heard it mentioned last week. That would divide the Lamont vote too I imagine. I think that nomoJoe has said he would not run as an R but that was this week who knows what he will do if backed further into a corner. If he does though wouldn't the CT dems be totally against him then, I mean now he is still sayting that he will caucus with the dems even if he wins as an I, that he is just a moderate dem, if he switched that would be the end of that argument.

[femmedem]

22. Yes, that's State Rep. Diana Urban from Stonington.

I don't understand why she's a Republican, because she's fought living wage campaigns, is strong on the environment, and has publicly opposed the war since day 1.

I think her decision to try to get on the ballot was a big blunder. Not only will she likely siphon more votes from Lamont than from Lieberman, but it may also damage her electability at the state level, where I think she's been very good.

[Hippo_Tron]

6. Joe running as a Republican = suicide

He will lose almost any democratic support that he might already have. Lamont will walk all over him if he becomes a Republican.

However, Schlesinger dropping out might be the case. The question, however, is whether Schlesinger will drop out and it will be a two-way with Lieberman as an Independent against Lamont as a Democrat. And also where do Schlesinger's votes go. Remember, Schlesinger supports withdrawl from Iraq.

[Pab Sungenis]

10. How do the petitioning laws work in CT?

I know here in some states you can't sign a petition for an independent candidate if you vote in a primary. If Joe's encouraging his supporters to still vote in the primary, it might be hampering his efforts to collect signatures.

If that's the case, then a Republican swap of Joemo for Schlesinger might be the only way to keep him in the race.

[kohodog]

Self Delete...dupe

[kohodog]

21. I don't know of a restriction in CT like that

The petitions must be turned in the day after the primary, so it makes no sense to disqualify anyone who votes in the primary. They'd never be able to certify the mess that would bring on.

But I would like to know if Schlessinger can be replaced and what the rules for that are. Delay is still on the ballot in Texas because he won the primary. I wonder if Schlessinger would need to back out before the primary date. I don't believe he has an opponent so I wonder what the rules are. As arrogant as Lieberman is, I doubt he'd run as a Republican. There is no need unless the Republicans put up a credible candidate.

[calico1]

11. I agree.

And contrary to what some believe, all Republicans do not love him. Most of the ones I know can't stand him. I think what is going to happen if the Republican party doesn't put up a better candidate is a lot of Republicans will stay home. Some will vote for Joe, sure, but they won't come out in droves for him. In addition, the Democratic party will support the winner. If Lamont wins the primary that will weaken Lieberman because he loses the machinery of the party. And Lamont will pick up more momentum.

[jonnyblitz]

17. it's good to see you posting more frequently.

you are like the CT information booth and I don't mean that in a snarky way!! I have learned quite a bit from you considering I have been oblivious to local politics my 4 years here. You seem to always be the first one to respond to an out-of-state DUer with a question or to add further info to somebody else's post. :thumbsup: :hi:

[calico1]

18. I don't think I am an expert.

But there are things that become pretty clear from just being around, listening to the local news, reading the paper, listening and talking to people, etc. And I have learned a lot from you and other CT DU'ers too. As for more time to post, I am unemployed now which accounts for some of it. Good to be here, sucks to not have a job. :hi:

[Rose Siding]

12. You know what I wondered after Biden missed his train, and

learning that Boxer was still on to stump for Joe, joined by Bill Clinton?

Suppose these heavy hitters struck a deal- They'd show up for him if he agrees to abandon the indy run. Lieberman hadn't gone for it yet before Biden's trip, so he bailed.

Possible? :shrug:

[CTyankee]

15. Joe's campaign denies this

so it would be odd indeed if he will flatly renege on a statement he just made saying he wouldn't run as a Republican.

[MarkDevin]

25. It never ceases to amaze me...

...how so many out-of-staters regard themselves as experts on Connecticut politics. :eyes:

[Pab Sungenis]

31. Not commenting on state in this case.

Commenting on national tendencies. The leak about Schlesinger's gambling problem just reeks of Rove.

[WI_DEM]

9. The republican candidate will get at least 10% which means

that Ned and Joementum will be competing for the other 90% so Ned needs 45.1 to win (or less due to other smaller third parties) if he is at 40 now the momentum of winning a primary will help Ned immensely.

[MarkDevin]

26. How do you know what percentage the Republican will get?

[still_one]

3. what will be interesting is what the Democratic party will do

If Lamont is the DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE, will they support him?

For me that will say everything about the party

[Rose Siding]

7. The party already committed to support the winner of the primary.

[Guaranteed]

30. Yup. And that's the end of that little story. nt

[Dudley_DUright]

8. Negative Joementum

Bye Bye Joe. :hi:

[LowerManhattanite]

13. No. No! NO!...

...Joe has a 24-point lead in the Quinnipiac poll and that means he's definitely going to win, and ALL trend lines showing a surging Lamont must be ignored because Joe's a good Senator, and a good man, and his "values" are in tune with Connecticut voters, and independents overwhelmingly and will always favor Joe, and blah, blah, blaaaaaaah... :)

(HEAVY Sarcasm on, okay?) :)

[calico1]

16. You forgot something...

All the Republicans in CT LOOOVVEEE Joe and they will come out in DROVES to vote for him! He is going to bury Lamont! :rofl:

[LowerManhattanite]

19. "All the Republicans in CT LOOOVVEEE Joe and they will come out in DROVES"

You know...I'd forgotten about that particular glass of whine being served up lately.

Cheap *ss box whine at that! :)

[AtomicKitten]

14. The trend appears to be toward Lamont in the general

an awesome movement in the polls.

[thatsrightimirish]

20. the republican that is running is great!

He takes votes away from lieberman!

[wiley]

23. Kick!

[skipos]

24. If you graphed Joe's numbers, they'd look a lot like Bush's.. downdowndown

And it is only going to get worse for him if he loses the primary.

[JerseygirlCT]

27. That second part is the really interesting part... nt

[w4rma]

28. LIEberman should drop his independent bid and save himself some face.

And, more importantly, save Democratic resources that we need to take back a majority in Congress. Joementum is going to cause Dems to lose our shot at a majority *again* with his selfish, egotistic actions.

[Guaranteed]

29. Ohhhhh KABOOM! Just wow.

Tied-up in the 3-way....

Give it up, Joe.