Lets take a close look at the Clark-Edwards matchups

[ShaneGR]

General Clark (Who I respect) spent all of his early campaigning time in NH because he skipped Iowa.

Edwards focused on Iowa and didn't mount a real campaign in NH until after Iowa.

RESULT: Edwards finishes a strong second in Iowa and Clark barely beats Edwards (A couple hundred votes) for 3rd in New Hampshire.
-------------------------------------------

General Clark then focuses on OK, spending all his money there and on television advertising in 8 states. Clark continues to spend money on television in SC (Where he had been advertising for months).

Edwards focuses on SC, doesn't campaign very much in OK, and spends a lot of money on advertising in SC, Missouri, and OK.

RESULT: Edwards picks up a double-digit win in SC, a virtual tie with Clark in Oklahoma, and a strong second in Missouri (The largest state).


Am I missing something here? Edwards clearly had the better night. Certainly he could have done better in AZ and NM, but he didn't spend any money in either state... while Clark spent heavily in each state on televison and finished behind Sharpton and Dean in SC, a state he expected to compete for a win in just a few weeks ago.

I know I'm biased, but what exactly am I missing in all of this?

[jean]

1. I tell you what, let's not

[xultar]

20. kicking for selfish reasons...Is this TRUE? n/t

[ShaneGR]

31. Uh yeah, thanks for the kick

[arewethereyet]

2. AZ would have been nice but early on it was Dean territory

have to make the hard calls sometimes.

It takes time to do it right.

[DjTj]

3. That means nothing now. The battle is now in TN and VA.

...Come Tuesday night, we'll know for sure.

[jenk]

4. it's amazing

Edwards rise in the polls. Recently some Clark supporters are bragging about it being 26-20 Clark in Tennessee, but they don't realize that just a few weeks ago it was 26-6 Clark!!!

They sure have alot of confidence in a guy who had to be talked out of dropping out last night.

[jmaier]

6. That's an unsubstantiated rumor

that you seem only too happy to cite as truth.

[Democrats unite]

12. Just consider the source & you have your answer.

[West Coast Democrat]

A few weeks ago was a different landscape

but Clark is still doing well in TN

(and by the way, aren't you tired of using that photo yet?)

[jmaier]

5. Ok, I'm confused

The results are that they both did better than the other in those locations where each spent the most time and/or money just immediately prior to the voting regardless of how much early groundwork time/money was spent in the particular state? Do I have that right?

If so, it doesn't say much about a head-to-head matchup at all. Though Tennessee might.

[SangamonTaylor]

10. Yes, you are confused

If you consider winning by less than 1% in OK just as commanding a performance as Edwards winning by double digits in SC.

Edwards didn't touch AZ and he didn't play well there.
Clark didn't touch MO and he didn't play well there, either.

[West Coast Democrat]

7. Clearly Clark does better out West than Edwards

everyone expects Edwards to do well in the South, but not anywhere else. Clark proved that he can do very well in the West.

[Seldona]

8. In my opinion it is the media.

They will just not give Clark his due, and yes I am biased as well.

I am so frustrated by it right now I could scream!

Ahh well, I am going to put my head down and double the amount of calls and letters tomorrow.

Go Clark!

[funky_bug]

9. There have been three posts just tonight

With links backing up the fact that Edwards DID campaign heavily in OK, even before Wes joined the race.

Please get your facts straight. We expect more from Edwards supporters.

[SangamonTaylor]

13. they both campaigned heavy in SC and OK

Clark spent nearly $2.5 million in SC.

The results show a better night from Edwards than for Clark. The results are in the delegate count, and in perception. A major win by double digits to the frontrunner is perceived as more commanding than a virtual tie.

[Skwmom]

11. Edwards campaigned in NH for OVER a year

holding over 100 townhall meetings. He spent lots of time in OK. Don't forget to factor in the Bush supporter crossover voters who where given the word to prop up the personal injury attorney. Why do you think Tweety was in NH talking up Edwards while Imus talked up Kerry? Because they really believed what they were saying? Hardly

[AP]

27. Edwards put very few resources in Iowa. They sent all the money,

people, signs, bumperstickers to IA and SC. Clark spent a lot of his resources in NH. Edwards didn't. The more people knew about Clark the less they liked him. The more they heard about Edwards, the more they liked him.

Edwards got way more bang (votes) for the buck (bucks) than Clark did, and he continues to do so.

And this is a very significant issue.

[BootinUp]

14. I'm glad this discussion will be settled

in a few days, cause I grow tired of defending the General from every other candidates supporters that feel threatened by him. Lets just get it over with already and may the best man win.

:toast:

[democratreformed]

24. Here, here

:toast:

[Adjoran]

15. The problem is

that both Clark and Edwards are vying to be the "alternative" candidate, splitting the vote. Kerry walked over in the states where no credible challenge was mounted, and fell flat where the opposition spent some money.

With two "alternatives," neither getting enough delegates or money to mount a strong multi-state challenge, Kerry will coast through the primaries. Dean is trying to lay a late trap, but his crowds have diminished, despite the dedication of his core supporters.

If there were only one choice, it could be a race. But it seems that Kerry hit the jackpot, winning enough to gain the momentum and donations at the right time, while the other candidates just keep each other nearly marginal.

I voted for Edwards, so I would like to see him be the man. But if it doesn't go to a two-man race soon, it will be a one-man race.

[Turkw]

16. Well, polipundit has been backing Edwards since early December.

Wanting Edwards to do well in New Hamshire to hurt Clark.
Take a Look for yourself-

" Give, Give, Give

To everyone who took up my call to donate to Howard Dean in June, here's your new assignment: Give all you can to John Edwards and/or John Kerry.

The rationale is simple:
1. We still want Dean to be the nominee so that President Bush can crush him and have long coattails.
2. The biggest threat to a Dean nomination is no longer Dick Gephardt, John Kerry or John Edwards. It's Weasel Clark, for all the reasons outlined below.
3. To help Dean, we have to bring down Clark's vote totals in the crucial states of New Hampshire and South Carolina.
4. In New Hampshire, donating to neighbouring-son John Kerry will help ensure that Clark won't surpass expectations by finishing ahead of Kerry.
5. In South Carolina, Clark can be stopped by neighbouring-son John Edwards.

Donating online is easy. Just click here to donate to Kerry or click here to donate to Edwards.
posted by PoliPundit at 7:07 AM"

http://www.polipundit.com/2003_11_30_polipundit_archive.html

[krkaufman]

17. Based on what I'm seeing...

... some of the Edwards folks seem a whole lot more scared of Clark than the Clark folk are of Edwards.

[PurityOfEssence]

18. Ah, the old dynamic raises its head again

When the Clark supporters mounted a concerted mass posting on this board one night before he entered the race, I was most surprised by the similarity with conservative tactics: the use of accusations of "whining" and other such screeds were jaw-dropping.

Since then, the Clark supporters have mellowed considerably, and things have reached a new equalibrium. One can't help but notice how the characteristics of candidates show in the tactics of their supporters, though. As an example, one can't help but notice how gentle and honorable the Kucinich supporters have been all along. Regardless how he polls, there are many partisans on this board, so their silence and niceness isn't because they don't exist in plentiful numbers.

Kerry supporters have also been a fairly mellow lot too, although they've been goaded no end by Dean and Clark supporters to the point where they've gotten pretty fiesty too. They've been called to rise to the occasion so many times that they come off sounding more shrill than they inherently are. There is no sense of "privilege" from the bulk of the Kerry camp, where there is an overwhelming sense of that from many in the Dean camp and a fair amount in the Clark camp.

Posting nyah-nyah "you guys are scared, you guys are scared" schoolyard taunts smacks of some serious fear too, so maybe this isn't the best avenue to take.

It doesn't take a genius in either the Clark or Edwards camps to see that the other is its chief and immediate problem, so this was inevitable. In fact, bellyaching aside, the upstaging done by Mark Fabiani on John Edwards' official campaign launch day was a dead giveaway that the Clark campaign considered Edwards a major problem. I don't like the tactics, but at least they were correct in their assessment.

I see wariness and concern, not fear.

[democratreformed]

22. Also, based on what I am seeing,

the Edwards folk are clearly not interested in the Clark folk looking favorable upon their guy. B/C I am being completely turned off by these people's behavior more and more every single day. If we lose Clark, John Edwards will NOT be my second choice - EVER.

[OKNancy]

25. My eyes have been opened...I'll vote Dean

because he is the only other anti IWR person who has a chance.

[OKNancy]

19. You keep posting things that are not true

I wonder if, when you post, you go back and read the responses.
I live in Oklahoma and I have followed this race closely.

About a year ago I sent John Edwards picture to all my family members in Oklahoma because he was starting to make a run here. Then I also noticed that a state senator, Kenneth Corn, down in LeFlore county endorsed Edwards. I sent a little note to my sister
in LeFlore county because I thought she would be interested. This was about six months ago.

Edwards visited Oklahoma more than any other candidate. His ads started running very early. Edwards also picked up more donations than any other candidate here. He was running hard in Oklahoma.

He didn't spend as much time here in the last week....but he was here a lot.

Your continued assertion that Edwards barely campaigned here is false. You don't know about Oklahoma politics just like you didn't know about Kucinich in Ohio. I remember that.

[HFishbine]

21. Process

Some people examine the process, others the issues.

[xultar]

23. *kicking*

[xultar]

26. Why are we discussing, is this even true? n/t

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LiberalBushFan]

29. Edwards web site states that he spent more time in OK

than anywhere else. And how bout all those other states where Clark got 2nd and Edwards got 3rd?

[mlawson]

30. Not again, tonight!!! Last night was a pointless, destructive freeforall,

and we do NOT need this again tonight!!! Few if any minds are going to be changed by this, and some may walk away from BOTH candidates, which is what we REALLY do not need!!

:argh: