Why turnout yesterday is a HUGE sign.

[salin]

There was a thread in regular gd that was locked as it relates to primary. It includes turnout numbers. Please read:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1084072

Just last night I had a conversation with another DUer - the point of high first two primaries came up as a good sign. My cynical self stated that one had to look to these primaries for a trend. The first two (plus SC) had so much media and political presence that the voters were more informed and likely to be politically motivated. One had to look where there as not been the same level of scrutiny, press, tv ads, etc.

And the quick look.... WOW! Even where there was not the heightened political awareness - the numbers are significant. Hugely significant. We have been in a period of pretty steady decline of voter turnout for years. Slightly higher in presidential years and higher in general and continued declines in the primaries. The rate of increase in many of these locals seems very, very significant.

I didn't want the point to be lost on a locked thread (as it was in the wrong forum) - take a look at those numbers. WE need to keep a running tally for each primary.

It has been a long time since I have let one of these out in a political discussion... but... WooHoo!

[mastein]

1. Open vs. Closed Primaries

When you look at the numbers it is worthwhile to look to see if it is an open or closed primary/caucus. There are many open or semi-open (Iowa for example allows you to switch on the spot at most locations) caucuses and primaries. Those looking for the action may be jumping into our fray without really being among our party. That said, I still am damn happy with the turnouts we have been seeing and the very strong ABB sentiments shown in exit polls.

This isn't to say that freepers are coming in and voting weak candidates, but rather well thought people who are independent or republicans are coming aboard to get their voices heard.

[Armstead]

2. Here, I stole this from that thread

Delaware
2000 Total 11093
2004 Total 32881

North Dakota Caucus
2000 Total 2188
2004 Total 10508

Missouri
2000 Total 265461
2004 Total 416104

Oklahoma
2000 Total 134850
2004 Total 299580

Arizona
2000 Total 70793
2004 Total 220656

New Mexico
2000 Total 132280
2004 Total 94568 (96% Reporting)

[ProfessorPlum]

5. Day-amm! Bushy better kiss his oval office goodbye

.

[salin]

8. I believe that I read there was a bit of a snow storm in NMexico

if that were the case - perhaps that might be why it is the one with lower turnout.

Very interesting NPR piece heard last Friday from voters in Missouri. Because Gep had been expected to be in the race, there had been next to NO candidate presence or campaigning. For example the Kerry organization was signing on for a ten-day stint (leadup to the primary). The point in discussions with voters was that without the press attention or media ads that no voters seemed to be paying attention - and the conventional wisdom was that turnout would be as light as it had been in other years.

But look at the numbers there. My off the top of the head math might be off but it looks like there was more than a 50% increase in voter turnout.

[bobbieinok]

3. my precinct in Tulsa OK ...35-40% of registered dems voted

was told this at ca 6pm

no republicans voted at this precinct (so I was told) altho W had a primary opponent in OK

[CheshireCat]

4. Agree that turnout is a huge sign!

The democratic base is energized and people who usually stay home are po'ed at the Bushistas.

I'm in SC. The number of people turning against Bush is unbelievable. Many poor to middle class whites - Bush's policies are starting to hurt them badly.

[pmbryant]

6. Really hard to say what these numbers mean

Comparisons to 2000 are no doubt fraught with difficulties. These particular states are all crucial in 2004, but were they in 2000? Also some primaries this year may have been caucuses then, and vice versa. (EDIT: Also, as pointed out above, some may have been closed primaries that are now open, or vice versa.) Also, the 2000 primary campaign was much less interesting than this one. Gore had it wrapped up very early.

So while these numbers are promising, I don't think we want to read too much into them yet. At least not without a lot more analysis.

:-)

--Peter

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

7. Agreed, but if the trend continues this weekend

and through Super Tuesday, I think it will be much easier to ascribe meaning.

[salin]

9. because I can't resist using the word.... "joementum begets joementum"

minus joe, of course ;-)

I think that increased participation will and reports thereof will lead to continued increased participation - in the same way that reports of depressed turnout often further depresses turnout.

Also the beating that the bushies and their policies are taking in the news - on multiple fronts - even if reveresed in two weeks - is likely to have a short-term impact - especially in light of the reported higher turnout (as in - gee - others are doing something... I should do something... and maybe I really can make a difference...) Funny how public mass movements can shift mass behavior. Could be wrong - and the next primaries turnout rates will be telling.

[markses]

10. Turnout still way down from 1992

See

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=262726#267842

Delaware
1992 Total (?????)
2000 Total 11093
2004 Total 32881

North Dakota Caucus
1992 Total 32786
2000 Total 2188
2004 Total 10508

Missouri
1992 Total (?????)
2000 Total 265461
2004 Total 416104

Oklahoma
1992 Total 416129
2000 Total 134850
2004 Total 299580

Arizona
1992 Total (????)
2000 Total 70793
2004 Total 220656

New Mexico
1992 Total 181443
2000 Total 132280
2004 Total 94568 (96% Reporting)

Lots of work to be done yet.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Wow. That's interesting and a complete refutation of the postulation

It certainly helps to get a bigger historical picture. What should be noted is that there was a very historically high turnout in Iowa and NH this time around, so maybe now turnout is slightly down since Kerry is being accepted as the eventual nominee.