CA-50 2nd Edition, I look at the April 11th Special Primary

[FogerRox]

Last night I went over the June 5th Special election for the 50th CD in California,here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1400128

Here's quick review:

Lets look at the other House races and see how the Libertarians did..

Here are the other House Primaries in San Diego:

49- LARS GROSSMITH - LIB-269

50- PAUL KING - LIB-536

51 - DAN LITWIN - 127

52-MICHAEL BENOIT-LIB- 431

53- ERNIE LIPPE - LIB- 390

Well.. it seems that in the Libertarian House Primaries held in San Diego, only 1753 Libertarians voted. Now remember that number, 1753. You will need it for the next segment.

Heres the Kicker:

County results for state wide races

Note that these numbers are entirely consistant with the numbers above.


Governor: ART OLIVIER - LIB - 1727

Lt Gov.- LYNNETTE SHAW - LIB- 1727

SOS -GAIL K. LIGHTFOOT - LIB- 1782

Controller- DONNA TELLO - LIB- 1772

Treasurer-MARIAN SMITHSON- LIB- 1767

AG.- KENNETH A. WEISSMAN - LIB- 1752


GOSH what a marvel of consistancy the Libertarian Party is..... But that Paul King got 2201 votes in a House race, hes a STAR, he outperformed his fellow Libertarians who ran for state wide office......

SO I was wondering how many Libertarians are registered in CA50...

Thanks to Rumple from here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1400128#1401347

US Congressional 50

Total Registered = 355,409

Democratic = 105,504 =29.69%

Republican = 156,437 =44.02%

American Independent = 7,812 =2.20%

Green = 2,373 =0.67%

Libertarian = 2,232 =0.63%

Natural Law = 666 =0.19%

Peace and Freedom = 582 =0.16%

Other = 1,791 =0.50%

Decline to State = 78,012 =21.95%

So in CA 50 there are 2,232 registered Libertarian voters, while Paul King got 2201 votes in the Special election for CA 50. And on the same day in the Libertarian primary PAUL KING got 536 votes. NOw I know this is readily explainable, but I do think its weird.

536 Libertarian Primary voters

2201 Libertarian Special election voters

2,232 registered Libertarian voters

Sooo... It might be logical that Libertarian voters didn't bother to vote in the Libertarian Primary. Though it certainly looks as if all but 31 Libertarian voters voted in the Special election.

I now want to move to the April 11th Primary, I will be using these numbers:

http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/Special/cd50/elections_cd50results.htm

Special Primary Election - April 11, 2006
Official Canvass

United States Representative District 50

As of April 21, 2006 at 6:50 a.m.
Precincts Reporting 100% (445 of 445)
Registered Voters 353,866
Ballots Cast 137,529
Turnout 38.86%

From here:
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/Special/cd50/elections_cd50results.htm

Special General Election - June 6, 2006
Semi Final Official Canvass


United States Representative District 50

As of June 9, 2006 at 7:27 a.m.
Precincts Reporting 100% (500 of 500)
Registered Voters 355,409
Ballots Cast 134,302
Turnout 37.79%

From Here:
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/Special/cd50/elections_cd50_genresults.htm

I'm not sure why, but there were 55 fewer precincts reporting on April 11th

Here are the results from April 11th, I have selected those who were on the June 5th Special Election, and left out 14 other candidates:

Brian P. Bilbray Republican 20,952
Francine Busby Democratic 60,010
William Griffith Independent 1,111
Paul King Libertarian...........819.. these 4 races total 82892 votes

Ballots Cast .........137,529
-4 races April 11th....82,892
Equals.................54,637


Here are the results for June 5th:

BRIAN BILBRAY 69617
FRANCINE BUSBY 63489
W. GRIFFITH ...5318
PAUL KING ....2201..

Ballots Cast .........134,302

If you got this far, I hope this is worth those minutes you spent reading.....

TO believe Brain Bilbray won CA 50, you have to believe 54637 voters who voted otherwise on April 11th,
voted thusly on June 5th:

BRIAN BILBRAY 48665 more votes.. about 350% more
FRANCINE BUSBY 3479 more votes.. about 5% more
W. GRIFFITH ...4207 more votes.. about 400% more
PAUL KING ....1382 more votes .. about 150% more

I wonder if TIA might be around.....

I suck at math, so feel free to check it.

[robinlynne]

1. 100% turnout for libertarians, 30% voter turnout in general.

ummm.
good work.

[FogerRox]

2. Well to be fair,

Libertarians may have not turned out at that hi rate on June 5th, might have been anybody.


And there were 14 repubs running on April 11th.

I hope Busby beats the shit outta Brian in November, Along with 40 other REPUBS...
so we can put this all to bed......

[Misskittycat]

3. You have to add up all the votes of the 14 Repubs in April and

compare it to Bilbray's showing in June.

Having said that, at least two things still look fishy:
a. the number of precincts: 445 vs. 500
b. did nearly 100% of Libertarians turn out to vote in the June election.

[robinlynne]

4. I think she's right. if you add up all the republican votes from the

first election, what number do you get?
we'll help with the percentage.
I wish we knew how many republicans actually voted, and how many dems actually voted, by precinct. The ballots have different colors for the different parties here in california. So they definitely know. it would make it so much easier to analyze the votes....

[Misskittycat]

5. There's a way to know eventually which voters voted in each

election. For example, I have a precinct list from last year for my ilttle precinct, and it shows exactly, home by home, who is registered, what the party registration is, and whether that person voted in each of the elections for the past several years.

Of course, you don't know how the person voted, i.e., did a Dem vote for Dem candidates.

[robinlynne]

9. but is that information public?

seems to me we need to always have that information available for each election. I know the sos has it. and the registrars have it, but can we?

[Misskittycat]

12. It must be public, because the Party was able to obtain/download/buy ??

these precinct lists. I'm just a mere peasant; the higher ups would know how they're obtained.

[Tigress DEM]

20. Solely for use at the day of election.. to safeguard our rights.

Only those people working at the precinct with a need to know in order to verify that those voting are registered voters can obtain them and only for that purpose.

I'm just a peasant too, but I read it somewhere recently.

[lindisfarne]

23. The campaign is held to secrecy with this data - it is not to be shared

and must be carefully controlled as to who has it. Anyone who has that data is supposed to know about these legal conditions.
Since you have the information, and you are not aware of the legal conditions, the campaign which provided you the data is in violation of state law.

This is what drives me crazy about providing this kind of information to candidates. They do NOT safeguard the public's right to privacy. Even a democratic campaign (I'm assuming you were helping a democratic campaign) is not concerned about people's rights to privacy.

[FogerRox]

14. YOu missed it towards the end

Brian P. Bilbray Republican 20,952
Francine Busby Democratic 60,010
William Griffith Independent 1,111
Paul King Libertarian...........819.. these 4 races total 82892 votes

Ballots Cast .........137,529
-4 races April 11th....82,892
Equals.................54,637

[FogerRox]

13. Its there.. towards the end

You have to add up all the votes of the 14 Repubs in April and compare it to Bilbray's showing in June

[robinlynne]

6. I added and got 73,455 republican votes.

[Misskittycat]

7. Also, in analyzing this, remember that William Griffith announced

about a week or so before the election that he was more conservative than Bilbray on the immigration issue, and tried to sway hard-core anti-immigrant votes away from Bilbray. So that factor would be relevant.

[robinlynne]

8. actually 69,000 for bilbray does make sense.

3000 less ballots cast in the june election, bilbray gets 4000 less votes than the repubicans combined got in april.

the libertarian and independent votes seem extremely high, especially for a runoff.
I would really like to know how many democrats voted, and how many republicans. This is one race where you know people voted for their parties, at least the dems.

[robinlynne]

10. 52,503 votes for other republicans in april. would account for 48,000

more votes for bilbray in june, wouldn't it?

[Misskittycat]

11. Wait a minute. There's something else. When I looked at the Sec. State's

site on Friday night, at the top of the site, it showed absentee ballots still uncounted - a substantial number of them.

[FogerRox]

15. yes thats right.... ... .. ... .. .. . .. . . . . . .. ..

I dont think this election is over, not by a long shot . .. . . .. . .

[Tigress DEM]

22. Hopefully 7,000 for Busby and NONE for Bilbray...

Only 6,128 votes needed to tie.... how many would she need to be over margin of error?

[bleever]

16. K&R.

:kick:

[demodonkey]

17. Another "IT'S A MIRACLE" set of results!

K & R

:kick:

[Tiggeroshii]

18. Oh shit I got it

that's kinda crazy. The likelihood of this happening is very unlikely.

[diva77]

19. Has Busby ever been registered with another party other than Dem?

[robinlynne]

26. interesting question. someone told me a few days ago, talking about these

results, that she used to be republican. I googled all over the place to read about her, and couldn't find that. what I did find was her platform, and it looked so good to me that I figured that was a mistake.

[Tigress DEM]

21. Sometimes the most obvious answer is ...

the one that is correct.


US Congressional 50

Total Registered = 355,409

Democratic = 105,504 =29.69%

Republican = 156,437 =44.02%Nearly 1/2 the district is rethug.

American Independent = 7,812 =2.20%

Green = 2,373 =0.67%


The rethugs don't care about primarys or special elections so much, so turnout at those is very low.

Mobilized grassroots DEMS DO CARE about special elections and are showing up in higher numbers... but even if every registered third party* had voted DEM it would still give the rethugs about a 10% advantage if equal percentages of DEMS and rethugs showed up.


What I think is that rethugs and declined to state voted for Bilbry and DEMS voted their hearts out, but lost in a heavily rethug area.


* (excluding "declined to state" who are probably embarrassed rethugs)




UNLESS there is more solid proof of fraud I don't know what to say... It is amazing that a DEM got that close in a solid rethug area.



ONE SAD THOUGHT.... She lost by 6,128 votes. IF THE THIRD PARTIES HAD SUPPORTED Busby she would have won.

[lindisfarne]

24. Apr 11 Spec Prim: about 53000 votes went to Republicans (not Bilbray)

Total Votes 137353
FRANCINE BUSBY DEM 60010 43.69%
CHRIS YOUNG DEM 1808 1.32%
WILLIAM GRIFFITH IND 1111 0.81%

BRIAN P. BILBRAY REP 20952 15.25%

roughly 53,000 votes were cast for Reps other than Bilbray in the April 11 2006 special primary
ERIC ROACH REP 19891 14.48%
HOWARD KALOOGIAN REP 10207 7.43%
BILL MORROW REP 7369 5.37%
ALAN UKE REP 5477 3.99%
RICHARD EARNEST REP 2957 2.15%
BILL HAUF REP 2207 1.61%
SCOTT TURNER REP 2041 1.49%
VICTOR E. RAMIREZ REP 912 0.66%
PAUL KING LIB 819 0.60%
JEFF NEWSOME REP 574 0.42%
SCOTT ORREN REP 345 0.25%
DELECIA HOLT REP 261 0.19%
BILL BOYER REP 204 0.15%
MILTON GALE REP 58 0.04%
====================================
====================================
See also Msg 41 for more relevant info in this thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1400128

[lindisfarne]

25. King got 2201 votes in RUNOFF -you don't have to be registered LIB to vote

for the Libertarian candidate in the Runoff. You only have to be registered LIB to get the ballot with the Primary elections for LIB candidates. Every ballot had the Runoff election on it.

Regarding your statement:
"So in CA 50 there are 2,232 registered Libertarian voters, while Paul King got 2201 votes in the Special election for CA 50. And on the same day in the Libertarian primary PAUL KING got 536 votes. "

See also my message #24 in this thread for more relevant info.