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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:13 AM
Original message
Busby >> Bilbray race
Edited on Wed Jun-07-06 12:42 AM by larissa
The other thread had the results site in a reply.. We need one with the site on the first page!

--->> http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress.xml

Currently..

Bilbry -- 20,866 - 50.63%
Busby --- 17,693 - 42.94%

57 out of 500 precincts reporting so far.

Go Francine Go!

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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
1. Geez.... are the updates slow or what?
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:25 AM
Response to Original message
2. 66 precincts now in...
Bilbry still leads.

21,602 to 18,560

It's still early...
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Journeyman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:25 AM
Response to Original message
3. 66 out of 100, 50.33 to 43.24 . . .
Busby's on the move. . .
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. She did move more than him that last go around, didn't she?
I hope this turns out like the Virginia race.. We were all fretting because Tim Kaine's opponent was in the lead forever. Then out of the blue, the numbers started going in our favor.

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Journeyman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Bilbray went down while Busby gained. . .
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:32 AM
Response to Original message
5. If the Independent & Libertarian weren't running.. we'd almost be tied..
C'mon Francine.. start moving some more!
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Journeyman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:34 AM
Response to Original message
7. 20% counted now, and percentages holding. . .
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. I know... that damn 3,000 vote difference won't budge..
C'mon numbers MOVE in Francine's direction!
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:35 AM
Response to Original message
8. 100 out of 500 now in....
24,786 Bilbry
21,269 Busby

Sheesh..
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
10. Bill Schneider's prediction that the Independent would hurt the Rethug..
..doesn't seem to be coming true yet.

W. GRIFFITH - IND
2108
4.30%

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Tiggeroshii Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:50 AM
Response to Original message
11. 50 44 she's catching up..
:yourock:
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 12:55 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Oh man.. I hope that trend continues!
..and she keeps eeking up until she bypasses him!

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
26637
50.02%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
23461

C'mon Francine!

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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
13. 44% to 49% now..
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
28568
49.67%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
25605
44.52%

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 01:16 AM
Response to Original message
14. Is there an insider website on this district?
Sometimes I have found that but not tonight. A site where the locals know the specific precincts and can identify the trends based on those numbers as they come in. Otherwise we're just looking at slowly updated raw numbers and no clue where Busby needs to be, based on the precincts already counted.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 01:18 AM
Response to Original message
15. Damn!.. she just can't get past that 3k difference..
Edited on Wed Jun-07-06 01:20 AM by larissa
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
30683
49.80%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
27383
44.44%

* edit: in this latest count, looks like Bilbray gained a slight bit more than Busby.

The difference was 2,973 votes.. now it's 3,300.

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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 01:38 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. 3,278 difference.. Busby only gained 22 votes in last update..
Edited on Wed Jun-07-06 01:40 AM by larissa
Still.. moved in the right direction..

San Diego has to be the slowest reporting area in the nation.

edit to add...

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
33468
49.59%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
30190
44.74%


Getting closer and closer to that 50% of precincts reporting and she just can't quite catch up to him..
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 01:52 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. 46% of votes are now in and here is where we stand....
Edited on Wed Jun-07-06 01:55 AM by larissa
Edit to say.. he still holds a 3,055 vote lead

U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 50TH DISTRICT - (RUN-OFF)

Precincts: 500
Counted: 232
Percentage: 46.4%

Vote for: 1
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
35505
49.67%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
31955
44.70%


Do we have any hope??
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Tiggeroshii Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 01:56 AM
Response to Original message
18. Bilbray 49.67 -44.7
she's slowly catching up....

almost half of the precincts are counted now though, so she'll need to catch up quite a bit soon for her to have a chance.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:12 AM
Response to Reply #18
19. The results remind me of the Jean Schmidt > Paul Hackett Race...
US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
753 precincts of 753 reporting JEAN SCHMIDT 57,974 52% (W)
PAUL HACKETT 54,401 48%



The next time they provide an update, she has to seriously start catching up to him!
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:15 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. Precincts: 500 - Counted to date: 255 or 51.0%
Edited on Wed Jun-07-06 02:20 AM by larissa
Precincts: 500
Counted: 255
Percentage: 51.0%
----------

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
37593
49.66%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
33945
44.84


Does anyone thing she'll be able to catch up? Or is it still too early?


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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:21 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. I was thinking about that for the past hour
Almost posted it but didn't want to jinx a potential Busby comeback.

Heavy red districts that we're trying to steal.

In November the districts like this will not flip either. That +40 or anything close to that is preposterous. We need to reverse the low to mid GOP-leaning districts, and pick up the +15 seats.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:16 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. So, we'll wait till he's indicted.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:24 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. Still 49.82% to 44.71% .... it WILL NOT BUDGE!
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
40123
49.82%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
36005
44.71%

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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:41 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. Damn
Now Bilbray is up 4118 votes. :(
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:46 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. New Update
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 50TH DISTRICT - (RUN-OFF)
Counted: 331 of 500 precincts 66.2 percent
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 44692 49.69%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 40371 44.89%

It looks like the percentage is getting closer but Bilbray now leads by 4,321 votes which is 203 more than last time. :(
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:54 AM
Response to Reply #25
26. Seems to suspicipous that it bounces between 3 and 4k difference..
Regardless of how many votes come in..

Something strange seems to be going on.
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BluegrassDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:56 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Did that misstatement by Busby hurt her this bad?
I thought she would squeak by, but this difference is larger than I would've ever thought. I can only think that the statement she made about illegals not needing papers has cost her the election.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:58 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. Hard to say... the media is already writing about this race..
They aren't yet declaring it's over for Busby; just that Bilbray maintained a lead throughout the entire count so far..

http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/14757112.htm

If this keeps up and he wins, I wonder how the media will spin this tomorrow?
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:00 AM
Response to Reply #29
31. I can tell you one thing
I'm sick and tired of "moral" victories. We need to win some of these kinds of seats if we are going to take over the House of Representatives
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:57 AM
Response to Reply #26
28. Are they using
diebold machines?? Sure seems suspicious like you say.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 02:59 AM
Response to Reply #26
30. It's been slowly increasing
Down to 2900 at one point, then slowly up through the 3000s, now 4300

The bulk of the margin is the absentees, which were counted first.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #23
32. Republicans have awesomely impenetrable minds.
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BigBearJohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:09 AM
Response to Original message
33. 1:08 A.M. Lou Dobbs says "still too close to call" Busby race
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:13 AM
Response to Reply #33
34. 78.4 now reporting....
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
50284
49.64%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
45649
45.06%

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Tiggeroshii Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:25 AM
Response to Reply #34
36. Ya it's not there
...think we can pull it off in November? I hope so...
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:45 AM
Response to Reply #34
38. Now his lead
is up to 4,635. :(
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kick_them_hard Donating Member (134 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:15 AM
Response to Original message
35. Update as of 1:15 am Pacific Time


Precincts: 500
Counted: 392
Percentage: 78.4%

Vote for: 1
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
50284
49.64%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
45649
45.06%

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rucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:45 AM
Response to Original message
37. It was the immigrant gaffe she made that killed her.
Next time, make sure the people you're pandering to can vote.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:53 AM
Response to Original message
39. There's still 108 precincts (out of 500) to count..
I wonder at what point they declare Bilbray the winner? When he hits the 51% mark, or when they're 75 or 80% done?

Anyone know?
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:59 AM
Response to Reply #39
41. Another update
U.S. REPRESENTATIVE 50TH DISTRICT - (RUN-OFF)
Counted: 451 of 500 precincts 90.2 percent
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 56016 49.49%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 51202 45.24%

Again it looks like the percentage is tightening but Bilbrays lead is now 4,814. Damn, I think it's over :evilfrown:
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 03:58 AM
Response to Original message
40. Welp... they JUST dumped a bunch of votes out.. it's at 90%...
BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
56016
49.49%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
51202
45.24%

Time for Busby to concede...

We have to remember how RED this area is.. Maybe it won't be spun too bad.. 49% to 45% isn't exactly a landslide..
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:03 AM
Response to Reply #40
43. AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGHHHHHHH
I hate coming close!!!! Coming close isn't going to get us in control of Congress.

We need to pick up these kind of seats if we're going to win in November. We can't let these opportunities slip by. There just aren't that many competitive seats.
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Wabbajack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:05 AM
Response to Reply #40
44. 45 is about what Kerry got
If you add the right-wing indie's vote to Bilbray it's about the same as Bush V Kerry was in the seat. Not good.
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kick_them_hard Donating Member (134 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:13 AM
Response to Reply #40
45. Your right Larissa, we DO have to remember how RED
it is, BUT she has another chance in November, remember this election was for the fill in and hopefully we will get the Indies and the Greens and others to vote in the November for her and Busby just has to keep attacking him while he is in office, PLUS in November more people will be out to vote. I think this looks aweful for the Republicans.
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:15 AM
Response to Reply #45
46. Geeze
if this looks awful for rethugs I'd hate to see what looks good! We have to start winning these seats!
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kick_them_hard Donating Member (134 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:26 AM
Response to Reply #46
47. This was a RUBY RED District
People predicted she would lose by 4% points. So I'm not surprised. But I was a hoping they would be wrong. I still say its bad news for Repubs. That should have been an easy district to win. Remember, this was an off election and she has another chance in November
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RUMPLEMINTZ Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:29 AM
Response to Reply #47
48. You can spin it anyway you wish
but these are the kind of races we have to win to take congress back. There are only so many competitive races and this one was considered one of the easier ones to pick up. If we don't win these we are the ones who look awful.
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snowbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:02 AM
Response to Original message
42. One last question before I crash.....
Does Bilbray have to get to 51% ?

Seems that they said on CNN the winner needed 51%... but I'm not sure. If he winds up just short of that, wonder if they'd go to a run-off without the other two guys?

G'night. :boring:
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lynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 04:57 AM
Response to Original message
49. AP has called the race for Bilbray -
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 06:44 AM
Response to Original message
50. Darn, sorry to hear it
First thing I thought of waking up today..

It was close and it sounds as though they fought a good fight. As everyone said, this is a conservative area, filled with lots of Navy retirees. There's been plenty of time since the Dukester's conviction for the conservative news media to paper over the disgust of their right wing fans and help them rationalize the whole sordid affair. If only Dems had as much media saturation.

It's still very good news, the margin is much smaller and it appears the GOP has lost a great deal of support in a "guaranteed" conservative district. Congrats to the Dems on a job well done, anyway. I'm sure they'll do even better next time.
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primative1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 06:56 AM
Response to Reply #50
51. Not to state the obvious ...
But didnt Dems try to run on an open border policy ... in san diego of all places? 'nuff said.
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #51
52. Sorry, I'm not that familiar with the race
I live in Ohio, so I don't know. I love the area, have vacationed there, would love to retire there (I have a spot picked out on Coronado Island, now I just have to win the lottery ;-)).

You make a good point, however. That's why the GOP is bringing up these wedge issues - to split support. I anticipate they're hoping for similar affect on the gay marriage amendment, forcing senate Dems to vote on the stupid thing to hurt them in races where Repubs are behind (like Sherrod Brown vs DeWine here in Ohio).

The trick, I suppose, is to keep everyone from focusing on the wedge issues and finding some way to defuse them.
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BFBILLER Donating Member (27 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 08:09 AM
Response to Reply #51
53. Yes they did
And they lost. When about 60% to 70% depending on polls say they are against something do not be to suprised if you lose supporting it. That is democracy.
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NCarolinawoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #51
55. Three years ago I met a native of San Diego who moved to NC.
She could best be described as a very liberal Democrat, and very interested in environmental issues. She chose my NC area because of the thriving job market. But she told me she LEFT San Diego because she had illegal immigrants literally running through her backyard, night and day, and camping out. She lived in Suburbia. She was afraid for herself, her pets, and she could no longer even enjoy watching the birds at her bird feeder.

I'm guessing there is a possibility that even some Dems deserted Busby. Maybe they voted for the Independent candidate or were so angry at her "pandering statement" that they just stayed home.

:(
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swag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 08:09 AM
Response to Original message
54. Rematch in November, then.
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Tiggeroshii Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-07-06 05:03 PM
Response to Original message
56. Almost looks like 46-49
Let's see if the margin can be about 3 points. That will give her a cahnce for an even closer race in November. She can do it still, I think...

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP
60319
49.33%

FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM
55587
45.46%

W. GRIFFITH - IND
4492
3.67%

PAUL KING - LIB
1875
1.53%

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