Sherrod Brown down by 11pts in OH race.

[Rose Siding]

In Ohio, DeWine Leads Brown by 11 Points
A new Cleveland Plain Dealer poll shows Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH) leading Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) 47% to 36% among registered voters.

"The results suggest that, for all the early talk about DeWine being one of the Senate's most vulnerable Republicans this year, Brown still has his work cut out for him."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/05/01/in_ohio_dewine_leads_brown_by_11_points.html

[AndyA]

1. What is wrong with the people in Ohio?

After all the jobs they've lost under Repug "leadership" :eyes: and with all the accusations of election fraud in the last few elections, you'd think they'd be fed up by now...

Edit: Spelling.

[rainy]

5. The polls are just as rigged as the voting machines. Cant have

the polls not match the outcome again now can we? Move along.

[zann725]

17. Agreed totally.

Though as I've mentioned, somehow I think Blackwell's going to end up "involved" in Noe or Abramoff scandals...and just somehow won't make it to victory, or even if he does, won't stay there. Oh for a "plea bargain" from Blackwell...what "factual" discoveries that would reveal about '04.

[skipos]

32. That's not always true. Stickland (D) is up by 10% is some polls

even rasmussen.com (R) has Strickland up by 10%. Is that "rigged?"

[atreides1]

6. Many Answers

They're really stupid, they truly buy into what the religious fanatics are selling, they believe that they are going to be raptured soon, they're stupid.

Or it could just be that they really believe in the Republcan Party and Bush, or they're stupid.

Then again perhaps the paper reporting this is a red paper that supports Dewine?

[OzarkDem]

12. Nothing is wrong with them

Its a bogus poll, Brown is running even with or ahead of DeWine.

[depakid]

2. But wait, I thought Ohians were sick of Republicans?

and that Rahm Emmanuel's candidate was THE candidate to take WeWine down?

[Le Taz Hot]

31. Yeah, and John Kerry was

"electable." Uh huh.

[Norquist Nemesis]

3. Hmm...my first thought is that it's the PD that did the poll

Makes me wonder about the skew, but I dunno. :shrug:

I'm betting they're pretty much neck in neck and there's still a little over six months to go.

[sasquatch]

4. Thank you Rahm Emanuel, you Jackass!

Now we got a nobody that's going to lose to a moron.

[Rose Siding]

8. Yep. And Schumer.

[OzarkDem]

9. Brown isn't behind at all

The GOP and the Plain Dealer would like you to think so, and they're exploiting you.

[sasquatch]

15. If you say so

[OzarkDem]

16. I do

I've seen this repeated again and again by the Plain Dealer.

In fact, I thought of posting about it pre-emptively, as in "watch for the PD to come up with a new bogus poll", etc.

We need to defeat Mike DeWine, lets stick together on this.

[OzarkDem]

7. Don't Believe the Plain Dealer

They repeated this same performance with Al Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. They hire a private polling firm, usually Mason Dixon, and basically pay for a poll that is highly inaccurate and shows the candidate they dislike as being very far behind.

In 2000, their bogus poll showed Al Gore 10 points behind when he was actually even with Bush. Same thing with Kerry.

Ignore it, they're lying bastids and they do this every time they want to defeat a Dem.

[Rose Siding]

11. The same poll has Strickland over either repub. Is that reliable?

[OzarkDem]

13. Plain Dealer is very selective

in how they do this. They'll choose a Dem candidate they won't oppose and leave them alone. But they'll target another Dem they want to lose and post bogus polling data.

Remember - ROVE IS WORKING VERY HARD ON OHIO.

They know Taft is a hopeless case and that Strickland will probably win. So they're leaving him alone.

But they're choosing the close, competitive races, like Brown's to pull their dirty tricks.

Fortunatley, Sherrod won't fall for it.

[derby378]

10. Hang in there, Sherrod - don't choke

We need this win, and we need you to step up.

[OzarkDem]

14. He'll do fine.

Its the Dem voters who have to stay strong and not let themselves get manipulated by Rove and the Plain Dealer.

[MoonRiver]

18. Why are you posting this?

[onenote]

19. why shouldn't it be posted?

Maybe the poll is wrong, maybe its not. But why shouldn't information like this be posted so that folks can comment on it and,possibly, point out why it may not be accurate or use it to rally Democrats to work harder, etc.

onenote

[MadHound]

20. So much for Brown being the better candidate to beat DeWine

Isn't that what all the Democratic apologist were saying when Brown forced Hackett out of the race, that Brown could defeat DeWine easier than Hackett. So much for that fallacy.

[OzarkDem]

25. He is the better candidate

He's been through a lot of campaigns and knows how to stand up to GOP dirty tricks.

[MadHound]

29. Well, at least for now, it appears that Brown's experience

Is not standing him in good stead. Sometimes it is better to have a fresh, energetic face in a race rather than more of the same ol' same ol'.

I just find the irony of Brown's drop in the poll rather amusing considering the number of people on this board who were all in favor of duming Hacket because they were convinced that Brown could run a winning campaign.

I know, I know, it's still a long way to election day. But I also know that the whole Hackett fiasco turned a lot of people off of voting Democratic this fall, and sadly, this may turn around and bite Brown on the ass, hard.

[rockymountaindem]

30. First of all, nobody "forced" Hackett out of the race

All anybody did was try to line up fundraising for a candidate they preferred. That's what happens in politics. Secondly, where's your evidence that Hackett would be polling any better?

[MadHound]

33. Oh puhhhleeeeezzzze, feed me another line of bullshit, puhleeeze!

:sarcasm:

Yank a candidate's money out from underneath him, and what is left to run on, Hackett's good looks. Stop trying to split hairs and face the fact that yes indeed, Brown and his backers forced Hackett from the race. Do you really want me to go dredging through old posts and threads to prove my point?

And given that the whole Brown-Hackett debacle turned off a bunch of Ohio Dems, and that Hackett really had appeal amongst moderate Dems and 'Pugs, make your own conclusions. It has been the conventional Democratic wisdom that the more moderate you are, as Hackett was, the better chance you have of winning.:shrug: I was more addressing the point made by serveral Brown supporters around here that stated Brown would win this one pulling away.

In a way I find these numbers to a shot of karmic justice. Brown should have done what he originally stated, and stayed out of Hackett's way. Instead he just had to jump in, force out Hackett, and now he's paying the price. While it sucks for Ohio, because it seems that now Ohio will still be saddled with DeWine, the karmic irony of the matter is delicious.

[rockymountaindem]

39. Who put a gun to the donors' heads?

Trying to undercut your opponent is just how politics works. Nobody "forced" Hackett to quit. He could have kept running and sought donations from elsewhere. Besides, the very big-money donors who abandoned his campaign are the ones who get a lot of flak at DU for being big corporate animals. Perhaps Hackett could have raised money on the internet as Dean did in 2004. But, we'll never know because after he faced a little competition he up and quit. Is that the kind of candidate we want facing the Republican smear machine? I'm sorry he quit, I really am, but I don't blame it on Brown. He just wants to win too. Sadly, political campaigns ain't Candyland, they're high stakes poker.

[MadHound]

41. Yeah, but it's pretty damn sad

When a Democrat can't even abide by a gentleman's agreement with another Democrat. Brown said early on that Hackett should run, that he had no designs on the seat. Yet all the sudden he thinks he sees that DeWine is vunerable, and the man's word and honor go out the window. Something that I might expect if the two were in different parties, but man, you just don't stab your fellow Dems in the back like that.

And being a newcomer, suddenly deprived on one's backing, it's a pretty tall order to regroup, refund, and move on. Sorry, Hackett didn't quit, he got kicked to the curb.

[saltpoint]

21. The PLAIN DEALER is on a pro-GOP rampage lately. Didn't they

endorse Ferris (sp?) against Kucinich a couple weeks ago?

The poll may suggest a bump for DeWine, or not.

I'm not convinced there's 11 percentage points between the two, and I even suspect that Brown is in the lead.

DeWine is not much loved among Republicans and this is not likely to be a particularly Republican year.

Democrats pick up the Ohio senate seat.

[AX10]

22. The Plain Dealer is a right wing rag.

[incapsulated]

23. Regardless of the Plain Dealer...

This was never going to be any cake walk, no matter who got the nomination (and I was a Hackett fan). It will be close, though. It is winnable.

[Doctor_J]

40. Looks like it IS a cakewalk

for DeSwine. This probably mean that the chance of OH going blue in 2008 is nil. Gonna be a LONG time before we get the WH or Congress back.

[nickshepDEM]

24. Really wish Hackett would have stayed in... Actually, I really wish

Brown would have stayed the fuck out.

[OzarkDem]

26. Hackett would have had problems

His lack of experience in campaigns and hair trigger temper would have gotten him in big trouble.

[Jacobin]

27. And the current situation is not big trouble?

I love the way dems are always so careful to get just the right 'safe' candidate to make sure we carefully and precisely lose each election.

:mad:

[OzarkDem]

28. Current situation

is par for the course. This race is going better than expected, given that its probably the most heavily Rove targeted race in the country. Keep in mind, DeWine just got through spending $2million in tv ads and didn't boost his support even one point.

Sherrod raised nearly $2million last quarter and has banked most of it. He's running an excellent grassroots campaign while still raising a lot of money.

PD usually saves the phone poll trick for the last few weeks or month of the race. This is actually the second phony poll they've done on this race, they're trying to slow down his fundraising at this point, but its not working.

GOP is toast in Ohio and so is DeWine. The fact that they're pulling their tricks so early means they're desperate, though I'm sure they have a lot more tricks up their sleeve. This won't be the end of it.

[Jacobin]

34. Glad to hear that

Good news indeed.

Hope they pull it off.

[nickshepDEM]

42. Acutlly Mason Dixon conducted the poll and they are one of,

if not the most accurate pollsters in the nation. Very respectable and very non-partisan.

[Awsi Dooger]

44. Sherrod Brown was indeed the safe candidate

And that's exactly the wrong path against an incumbent. Frankly, I'm sick of posting this. Open races and trying to oust an incumbent are two completely different obstacles and until the party realizes it we have no chance. To evict an incumbent you need special personal qualities, traits that intrigue the middle roaders and soft supporters of the other party. Hackett was obviously that candidate in this race. In fact, it wasn't even debatable. Plus he was the more moderate candidate and in Ohio that's ultra significant. Our handicapping royally sucks, largely because we never gamble on greatness.

Brown isn't behind by 11 points. He also isn't likely to win. Brown in Ohio is just the type of safe pick who will run a nice standard race and lose by 2-5 points. With Hackett you had much wider parameters, the possibility to lose by double digits if he proved to be a loose cannon, but also the chance to screw up our game plan and win by 5 points. I've posted the same thing several times. Maybe our party needs to send someone to Las Vegas for 5 or 10 years to get a clue about handicapping. It really isn't that difficult.

[sandnsea]

35. Brown leading 45%-44%

I don't know what zip code the Plain Dealer polled to get those numbers, but the Brown campaign just released completely different numbers. Rasmussen had Brown up 43-41 a week ago. So I don't give this Plain Dealer poll much credence.

[nickshepDEM]

36. Just an FYI, take internal polls with a grain of salt...

Actually, take internals with a cup of salt.

[sandnsea]

38. Rasmussen isn't an internal

Which is why I quoted it too.

[Zodiak]

37. I second that...Brown had a mail-out today

that had him ahead by one percentage point. It was internal polling.

Dear Friend,

I have some good news to report before we head into tomorrow's primary.

A survey of Ohio voters conducted for our campaign by a respected pollster shows Sherrod leading Mike DeWine 45% to 44%.

Nearly half of the respondents said Mike DeWine did not deserve to be reelected. Only 30% believed he should have another six-year term.

In light of these encouraging results, make sure to go to the polls tomorrow. Sherrod only faces nominal opposition in the primary, but it is an important show of support for our campaign and the rest of the Democratic ticket.

This year we have an outstanding slate of candidates like Ted Strickland for governor, and Jennifer Brunner for secretary of state.

Remind your friends and family to come out as well. With your help, we can bring new voters to the polls to vote for change in 2006.

If you aren't sure where your polling place is located, contact your county board of elections.

After the polls close, join fellow Democrats at a post-primary celebration near you:

Hyatt Regency
350 N. High Street, Columbus
Starts at 8 PM
Hosted by the Ohio Democratic Party

Massimo de Milano’s
1400 W. 25th Street, Cleveland
Starts at 8 PM
(Entrance on Detroit Ave. Free parking on W. 25th and across Detroit Ave.)
Hosted by Ted Strickland for Governor and Sherrod Brown for U.S. Senate

Thank you for your support.

Sincerely,

John W. Ryan
Campaign Manager

[JI7]

43. pathetic

based on this thread some "dems" seem to want Brown to lose. the election is still over 5 months away and already people crying about it over based on one poll from a questionable source.