Repub WSJ Writer Thinks Busby Has A Shot At Taking It Tomorrow

[ruggerson]

Hold on tight. Tomorrow might start the earthquake. Even if Francine doesn't take the full 50%, if she does well in a Repub district, the press will be all over this.

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http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110008210

John Fund
Flirting With Disaster
Will 2006 be for Republicans what 1994 was for Democrats?

We'll know soon enough if GOP voter turnout is likely to be a huge problem in November. GOP volunteers in California's San Diego County report that absentee ballots from the party faithful are being turned in at disturbingly low rates for a special House election that will take place tomorrow. The race will fill the seat of the disgraced Randy "Duke" Cunningham, the GOP member of the Appropriations Committee who took more than $2.1 million in bribes to steer pork-barrel projects to favored defense contractors. Under the rules of the contest, any candidate in the crowded field who gets more than 50% will win the seat outright. If no candidate breaks the 50% threshold, the top Democrat and top Republican will square off in a June runoff. Democrats clearly believe they have a chance to win the race in a surprise knockout blow tomorrow.

Francine Busby, the only major Democrat in the race, is being aided by a massive Democratic get-out-the-vote effort. Ms. Busby, who ran as a conventional liberal against Mr. Cunningham in 2004, has reinvented herself for the special election as a soothing moderate without party ties. "This isn't about Democrats or Republicans," she says. "It's about changing the way Washington works." Her new ads feature her endorsing John McCain-style ethics reform ("no secret pork-barrel spending") and a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Republicans claim to be confident that Ms. Busby won't reach the 50% barrier and eventually will lose a runoff to the top GOP vote-getter. But they said the same thing just before Democrat almost won a special House election for what should have been a safe seat in Ohio. Should Ms. Busby win in a district where only 30% of registered voters are Democrats, it "would set off political shock waves," says GOP pollster Bill McInturff.

Indeed, even a Busby showing in the 45% range could touch off panicked responses from Republicans--similar to those from Democrats when they lost a series of key special elections in the spring on 1994. "Panicked politicians are not a pretty sight," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres. "They usually run in the wrong direction "


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[mdmc]

1. she is in my prayers

[sdfernando]

2. Hope she can win

I work in this district but I don't live in it so I can't vote for her. I sure hope that every last Democrat of voting age casts a vote for her!

[sandyd921]

3. Great to hear some good news

I've been getting all stressed and agitated (and I have high blood pressure besides) over the news about * nuking Iran. I was badly needing to hear something positive and uplifting. This is very encouraging news. I am fervently hoping that it portends a massive trend toward Democrats in 2006. It's time now.

[saltpoint]

4. It's sounding good out there. Go, Francine. -- n/t

[ruggerson]

5. It's gonna be awful close

I'm not going to be bummed if she doesn't pick up 50%. Anything over 45 will be a tremendous victory. This is a VERY Republican district.

[saltpoint]

6. I'll keep an eye out for the outcome to this one. I hear you on the

50% or less cut-off... if there are that many Republicans, a win is a huge win.

I'll send good vibes Francine's way. -- :thumbsup:

:hi:


:dem: