Busby win in CA 50th District would signal political "tectonic shift"

[DeepModem Mom]

Calif. Race Could Signal Partisan Shift
Democratic Front-Runner Hails From GOP District
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, April 10, 2006; Page A03

LA JOLLA, Calif. -- Francine Busby is a Democratic candidate for Congress. But you could not tell her party affiliation by watching her TV ads.

Running in a special election to be held Tuesday to replace convicted felon Randy "Duke" Cunningham, Busby has played down her party affiliation to the point that it is almost her dark little secret. Yet in the race to replace the Republican war-hero-turned-corrupt-pol, Busby is giving the Democratic Party tantalizing hope that her race against what her party has dubbed "the culture of corruption" might just succeed. Busby leads the pack of 18 candidates (including 14 Republicans), garnering anywhere from 35 to 45 percent in polls.

Political analysts said the race for the 50th Congressional District could serve as a bellwether for races across the nation. If the self-proclaimed soccer mom wins the vote, it would be a significant upset in a district that combines the golf-crazy, socially liberal "beach Republicans" of the moneyed coast north of San Diego with the golf-crazy, "red meat" Republicans of the inland exurbs. Registration figures in the 50th District tilt largely Republican, 44 percent, with 30 percent Democrat and 21 percent undecided.

"If Busby wins, that would be the political equivalent of a tectonic shift," said Amy Walter, senior editor at the Washington-based Cook Political Report. "The next story you would hear is this is the first rumblings in what would be a major earthquake in November."...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/09/AR2006040900973.html

[mitchtv]

1. I have my fingers crossed

It will take a huge tide to overcome our natural inferiority in numbers there. Incidentally, I guess they've just about lost the RW Latino Catholic vote, maybe for 20 years.

[bluesbassman]

2. Fingers and toes crossed!

This will be a huge indicator of where this state is headed, and the rest of the country too. I live up in the Bay Area, and a lot of my conservative friends and associates are pretty fed up with the GOPher corruption and hypocrisy. Hopefully the folks down in San Diego feel the same.

edited for spelling

[msongs]

3. LA Times analysis for this race is.....................

busby comes in first among all candidates in the primary and loses big to the republican in the runoff.

after all it is a republican majority district and republican family values are thievery, war crimes,
and that sort of thing. otherwise they would not keep electing thieves and war criminals.

let us hope the times analysis turns out wrong :-)

msongs
www.msongs.com/impeachbush.htm

[FARAFIELD]

4. I dont know why we are talking about that

Nick lampson (who represented about a third of Delays district) is one thing if he wins. Francine winning that district (which borders mine ISSA is my disgusting rep) is impossible in the general. Her only chance and a slim one is winning the open race, and thats only if a big part of the district stays home its republican Big Time. And unfortunately there are just enough people that people recognize on the other side to vote for. Its a shame because i think if the DNC had put more resourses in a get out the vote we could have taken that, because we coalesced so fast around Francine.

[cascadiance]

7. I wouldn't writer her off too quickly yet...

Some are predicting the same will happen to her that happened to Donna Frye when she had the special election go her way initially but losing the runoff to Jerry Sanders.

I think there are a few differences though:

1) One thing working against Busby perhaps is that the Demographics for the 50th district are a bit more "red" than San Diego as a whole (who were voting in the mayoral special elections).

2) Francine Busby is not as liberal as Donna Frye was. She is more moderate, and I think can appeal to more moderate voters than Frye could. Heck she was a Republican earlier before moving to the Democratic Party. She is progressive on the right issues though, which is getting rid of corruption, etc.

3) The moderate candidates on the Republican side aren't doing as well as they were doing in the mayoral election. Had Steve Francis been in the runoff against Donna Frye instead of Jerry Sanders, Frye might have won. But she had a hard time getting the moderate voters away from Sanders, which she would have had a better time doing against Francis. Eric Roach (clip), who's ahead of the Repubs in the latest Datamar poll at the moment, is a lot like Steve Francis, touting himself as a good businessman, even though he's already spent on his campaign as much as Cunningham was sentenced for taking in bribes ($2.4 million), much like Francis was spending money earlier. Brian Bilbray is trying to make himself out as a moderate, listing Jerry Sanders endorsements constantly, but he isn't the moderate that Sanders is. Kaloogian, looks to be slipping out of the third slot perhaps, but is anything but moderate. The only Republican moderate I see so far is Earnest, and I don't think he has a shot at getting into the runoff, unlike Sanders.

4) I think the times have changed a lot since the November special election for mayor. I think the president and others in congress have a lot more problems to explain to the voters than they did then, and the "culture of corruption" theme will be that much more on the side of Busby when voters go to the poll this time.

But we cannot count on ANYTHING! Every vote counts! GOTV!

[kentuck]

5. The election is Tuesday ?

I will take that as a good omen if she wins.:)

[FrenchieCat]

6. Kicked!

& Prayin'.....

[Cocoa]

8. this would be sweet

go Francine! :bounce: