20% are undecided in many Feb. 3rd states

[DJcairo]

According to ARG, Zogby, and the LA Times/CNN poll. According to http://zogby.com/ Kerry is on the move with black voters and Democrats in SC. If most of black undecided voters break for Kerry he would win in SC. Zogby also says that Kerry actually lead in last nights sample by 25-24 over Edwards. Unless Zogby is crazy, Kerry has a shot. However, he points out that Edwards leads among leaners 3-1 which means once Zogby factors those people into the polling, Edwards will probably grow his lead. Who knows. If these polls still show 20% undecided on Tuesday morning then we won't really know what's going to happen in SC.

[THUNDER HANDS]

1. if they're undecided by this point in time

Chances are, they're not breaking for Edwards.

This is why I think Kerry is coming out on top here.

They should know Edwards by now and if they're still undecided, he hasn't sold them.

[jenk]

3. Don't forget sharpton

I think he'll help Edwards by taking votes from kerry. Overall, I don't think the black voter will overwhelmingly support 1 candidate.

[DJcairo]

4. I read at Zogby.com that Sharpton takes black voter support from Edwards

“Kerry has good support among African Americans, though Sharpton is slowly moving up in his base (at Edwards’ expense). Edwards and Kerry are very close among all ideological groups and tied among both men and women. On one hand, Kerry led for the one-day of polling, as Undecideds creeped up in numbers. On the other hand, Edwards holds a three to one lead among Leaners. South Carolina is very fluid.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=799

I agree that Zogby's polls are erratic. However, I only mention this because it seems confirmed by ARG as well that Kerry has an edge among black voters - and about a third of black voters are undecided. The LA Times poll confirms that number as well. The only way we are going to have any idea before Tuesday on how these undecided black voters are 'breaking' is by following Zogby unfortauntely.

[jenk]

5. trust

I really don't trust Zogby at all anymore, in my gut I feel Edwards has SC sowed up and will win with at least 5-7%

Sharpton takes black voters from Kerry and Edwards, after all is said and done, the black voters will be divided among JK, JE and Sharpton, with Dean and co. picking up the rest. it'll be something like 35% sharpton, 30% Kerry 20% Edwards

[jenk]

2. only Zogby keeps it that close

but CBSnews poll had Edwards up 13 in SC, Edwards is up 7 in ARG. This is alot like NH for Zogby, make it a horserace when it isn't.

and why isn't gallup polling for feb 3?

[spooky3]

6. Zogby's final poll just before NH was pretty accurate, but the results

were very different (showing Dean and Kerry were only a few % apart) in Zogby's polls prior to that time. What was going on there? And what is going on here?

It's hard to know, so I will just wait and see what the voters say!

[jenk]

7. yea, he seemed to come clean the final day

There was buzz about some sort of "Dean comeback" that just never materialized.

[texasmom]

8. Survey USA has only 3% undec. in Ok

and Clark up by 6.

http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html