How Will The Polls Bounce Wednesday?

[ThomWV]

The day after the State of the Union Address (SOTU) is to political polling what the day after Thanksgiving is to shopping.

Which way do you think Bush's numbers will go?

People might have hope, in which case his numbers will go up; people might be fed up and his numbers will go down.

My guess? He has quite a few 'true believers' still hanging on who want to be reinspired - but won't be. They will turn on him. Down.

Your guess?

[carolinalady]

1. up 45% approval rate after SOTU. Freeps don't like to be wrong.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. I guess little or no change.

[Conker]

3. Up between 45-48%.

Hopefully, I get proven wrong.

[rfranklin]

4. Bush opens mouth....stock market tanks!

It's like money in the bank!

[peekaloo]

5. After he assures us what a great economy we have, the best health care

in the world, we're winning in Iraq and he is, essentially, above the law?


The Rapture-lites will sport pillows on their heads to keep from bumping their noggins on the ceilings while the CM hoo-ers howl in ecstasy over his Supreme Gloriciousness....meanwhile little or no change on his numbers.

[radfringe]

6. small bounce

unless he says something really outrageous

at this point the only thing that would give him a huge bounce would be to announce that he's pulling out of Iraq immediately. and I don't mean immediatlely in the sense that it's 6 months down the road

most of what he can "tout" as achievements will be liberally coated with rosey-colored paint, secured in a bubble and sufficiently spun

as far a the "vision-thing" for the new year -- I hear he's going to screw around with health care. If you think our health care system craps now - wait till he's done with it. Afterall look how good the prescription drug program is doing...

so wrapping up - small bounce from the choir and then it tanks again

[Lexingtonian]

7. about the same

The 51% who are against him won't find any new reasons to like him and more to dislike. The 38% who are fairly solidly with him will fall into the 'Dear Leader will protect us from Terrorism, Thank God' miniondom and ignore the message that they're going to get screwed again. The wavering 11% will swing for him on the invoking of Terror and then fall back on the general hollowness of the 'new ideas'.

Same shit, different day is my bet on the general view at the end of the week.

I'm most interested in what amounts to a side issue- how he'll play the illegal immigrant stuff and how it goes over. Americans have imprecise and vague and inconsistent views, i.e. the political or ideological blocs involved are bad or weak or nonexistent, on the subject. Just about every bold initiative in the area backfires, creates a negative consensus against itself. I want to see his effort to tiptoe or bulldoze through that minefield and watch the explosions- who knows, maybe a bit of the resulting shrapnel will do some painful damage.

[ktlyon]

8. up 5 to 7 points

even if he falls off the stage
Media will swoon

[Bumblebee]

9. Much smaller audience will watch it than in previous years

therefore almost no bounce -- but if it goes to 44% CNN will declare it "a huge jump" and his presidency on its way to "full recovery" :) So stop watching/reading for 3-4 days after which it will be safe again. Plus, come next week he may even drown in the pre-Superbowl coverage. As a Seahawks fan, I hope they hang up on him if they win and he calls to congratulate them, as is the ritual. They won't hang up, of course, which is too bad.

Edited to make sure "They won't, of course" cannot possibly be interpreted as "they won't win!"

[skipos]

10. 45-48 and MSM will talk about what a triumph it is that only

half of America thinks he blows.

[AX10]

11. 51%+ will STILL disapprove of him. Approval may rise 3%(moe).

This means that a few more (and I do mean a FEW) people (sheeple) will approve of just because he spoke. Still, don't look for his approval to higher than 44%.

[Hippo_Tron]

12. His numbers will stay the same

If he could speak like John Kennedy or Ronald Reagan it would be a five point bump. Bush can't get a bump from any speech.

[saltpoint]

13. Probably a modest bump upward, which will reflect red voters'

whistling past the graveyard.

Bush's foreign policy is in shambles. It sucked pretty bad before Hamas swept the Palestinian election and it's not going to suck any less now that Hamas is in place. Israel is generally led by people a lot more intelligent than George Bush, and more battle-ready than Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld, chickenhawks both.

If you're a president who crows about bringing democracy to the Middle East, you have to accept that Iraq has not voted for your guy and that Hamas has been legitimately elected. Chavez also. Etc.

As the prescription drug plan continues to unravel month after month, and more greedy corporations cancel pensions and lay off still more thousands of people, the Bush administration will be standing there buck naked in a snowstorm. The Kenny Boy trial is not going to do Bush any good, either.

This SOTU address wil be all lies, except for some bluster.

In two weeks or so, he'll be back down where he is this week -- low 40s.