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First tier if there is a retirement: Maine, New Mexico
Second Tier (at least for now): Tennesee, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina
Mississippi has a popular former Dem Attorney General, Current Dem Attorney General, and a Dem congressman that could all possibly bump this race into the first tier especially if Chip Pickering retires.
North Carolina Governor Mike Easley could bump this one into the first tier if he challenges Dole. Governor Phil Bredesen might be able to do the same in Tennesee. As might Governor Brad Henry be able to do in Oklahoma against Inhofe or in an open seat if Inhofe retires. However, our luck with Senate races in Oklahoma hasn't been too good lately.
Vulnerable Democrats...
Johnson (South Dakota) -
The good news, Thune won't be running. The bad news, somebody else will and they will have lots of Repuke money. Not to mention this will be a prez election year in red South Dakota.
Landrieu (Louisiana) - Landrieu would be a strong favorite for re-election except for one little problem. Heavily African American areas of New Orleans were wiped out by Hurricane Katrina. Whether those people return and whether New Orleans will ever again be the powerful democratic bastion that it once was, is questionable.
Pryor (Arkansas) - Pryor looks pretty strong for re-election. I only include him because he's a freshman senator in a red state.
New Jersey - Lautenberg might go back into retirement. Dems have had two straight statewide races that have involved scandals. Repukes are going to have to get lucky in this state one of these days and if Lautenberg retires, this just might be the one.
West Virginia - If Rockefeller stays, we're good. If he goes, we have a problem.
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