Anyone know how the odds makers are betting on indictments

[CTyankee]

coming down in Plamegate? Do they speculate who will and who won't get indicted?

[DesertRat]

1. I'd like to know too. n/t

[carolinalady]

2. current contract

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=indictments

[napi21]

3. I don't understand that link? I'm used to seeing odds like

50:1 or 5:5

What I saw there looked like a stock trad page.

Please explain what it means.

[carolinalady]

4. You buy stock and sell stock on whether or not you think Rove

for example will be indicted. If he is indicted the value of the share will be 100 when the event occurs. If he is not it will be zero. The bid/ask price varies based on the news of the day etc. Right now it seems that most speculators are leaning toward the likelyhood that he will be indicted. There is a question link on the page that explains it more fully. This is apparently one of the most accurate prediction tools going right now.

[TahitiNut]

5. It means the people who're willing to 'bet' ...

... think the probabilities are 70.1% that Libby will be indicted before December 31st and 55.1% that Rove will be indicted before December 31st. Other people (who already made bets) think the probability Libby WON'T be indicted is less than 22%, and the probability Rove WON'T be indicted is less than 40%.

:shrug:

[napi21]

6. Thank you both! I was very interested because last week

there was a post here that said the bettors were betting against indictments! That really surprised me! I know the bettors aren't always right, but they're better than the talking heads we hear all the time!

[Dogmudgeon]

7. I think it's normalized to a value of 100

If the price (Ask) is 80, the conventional odds fraction would be 80:(100-80), or 4:1 in reduced form.

The equation is Ask:(100-Ask)

You can use the same formula for Bid prices.

"Ask" translated to journalese is "The odds the British Turf Accountants (legal bookies) are giving".

"Bid" translated to journalese is "The odds the market is reflecting".

I think that's how it works, anyway. What kind of odds will you give me on that? :)

--p!
Ten to one this gets corrected before 1630h EDT.