March 2 primary win could be vital

[wyldwolf]

The most recent Field Poll in California shows Dean at 25 percent, followed by Wesley Clark with 20 percent, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut with 12 percent and Kerry and Edwards in single digits. The poll was taken before Iowa and New Hampshire

The Democratic presidential candidates headed south and west after Tuesday's New Hampshire primary for a series of races that will determine whether California's March 2 primary will be a competitive contest or simply a coronation.

Many Democratic voters seem to have one main qualification for the nominee: whoever appears at any given moment to have the best shot at beating President Bush.

``They may have their ideology and they may have their beliefs, but boy, there's one thing they're really concerned about, and that's who can beat George W. Bush,'' said Leon Panetta, the former Monterey congressman and White House chief of staff under President Clinton. ``Very frankly, if you can't do that, you're not worth very much.''

After Tuesday's results, the race appears to have three other viable contenders (aside from Kerry, of course) -- former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark -- heading into a series of contests that play to their strengths. Dean, the front-runner in the polls until he stumbled to third in Iowa, recovered to finish second in New Hampshire. Clark, who campaigned heavily in New Hampshire, appeared to edge Edwards for third place.

Edwards and Clark, who is from Arkansas, have strong appeal in the South, which is home to key primaries next month in states such as South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. Dean, who has raised more money than any other candidate, has the broadest network of volunteers throughout the country and could compete strongly in several places at once, including Western states such as Arizona and New Mexico.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/7814593.htm

[krkaufman]

1. Moot, obsolete, out-dated

I'm a Clark supporter, and would love to spin the article... but it's pre-IA/NH, so the poll's moot.

Also, "March 2 Primary Win could be vital" is hardly a news flash! :) Super-Tuesday, baby.

[wyldwolf]

2. Nah, not really - because what I focused on in the article...

...were the parts where it is stated that the main criteria for voting by democrats is based on who can beat Bush and NOT idealogical purity or who was for the war or this and that.

I also focused on that fact that the three runner ups were now headed to primaries in regions where their strengths are.

These two facts are not moot, obsolete, or out-dated.

[Catch22Dem]

3. I hear ya, but

Pre Iowa/NH Kerry wasn't seen as someone who could beat bush. Now he is. I'd LOVE for Clark to take CA, but I just don't see how.

[wyldwolf]

7. I recall several polls pre-Iowa and NH where Kerry either beat Bush

...or was very close.

[isbister]

4. 1/23 SurveyUSA: Kerry 31%; Dean 26%; Clark 14%...

President, CA Dem Primary 1/23/2004

Kerry 31%
Dean 26%
Clark 14%
Edwards 12%
Other 11%
Undecided 5%

Data Collected 1/20/04 - 1/22/04

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[krkaufman]

5. Precisely, it's poll-driven...

Thanks for tossing up the poll numbers. Largely, it is Kerry's poll numbers that are driving his "electability" factor -- along with the soft ride that his cheering section in the media has given him.

No question, though, that next week could shake things up a bit, but Kerry has some media-generated momentum. (Even though he trails Dean in delegates.)

[isbister]

6. Of note: They were off in NH

-6 for Kerry
+ 2 for Dean
+ 2 for Edwards

They did miss Dean's Monday dive that Zogby got.

Poll/Media Driven: Some of it is for sure. Some folks that vote later might not be paying attention and just hearing about a Kerry win or leap to the top of a poll may grab their attention enough to get them to look closer at the candidates.