Gallop:Kerry Poised for N.H. Victory

[Nicholas_J]

Seen as Best Candidate to Beat Bush, Kerry Poised for N.H. Victory
Dean a clear second; close race for third among Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman


by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is poised to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary this Tuesday, according to the final 2004 CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll of likely voters. Widely perceived by voters as the most likely candidate to beat President George W. Bush in the November general election, Kerry leads former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean 36% to 25%.

Kerry 36%
Dean 25%
Clark 13 %
Lieberman 10%
Edwards 10%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 1%
None/ other/ no opinion 4%

http://gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040126.asp

[robsul82]

1. Three polls in like twenty minutes...

You're getting kinda nervous there, aren't you? ;)

Later.

RJS

[JohnKleeb]

2. Very nice Nick but I tell ya

I expect Kerry to pull it out but I am so unsure.

[Snivi Yllom]

10. Kerry will win

...but not by much

[JohnKleeb]

11. we shall see

and if he does, I personally think it will be good, because this time last month or there abouts he was down by 30 points there.

[KFC]

3. Electability has emerged as the main issue

Most think Kerry has a better chance of beating Bush than Dean. All other issues are secondary.

[La_Serpiente]

4. I don't like the buildup of Kerry this way

This is almost like saying Dewey Defeats Truman.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. I know, I wish he were still the underdog.

He's been trying to say "don't call me the frontrunner", but it is a pretty tough sell when he is pulling crowds twice as big as the other candidates (according to Josh Marshall)

[JohnKleeb]

9. Yeah hes trying to be like, tuesday will decide

He admits hes the underdog. I dont like this either Fean honest, I think Kerry's approach is right, it is hard because he is drawing some nice crowds and deservingly so.

[cthrumatrix]

5. Kerry ...the clear "front runner"..... so little time ...so many polls

[WiseMen]

7. Why the difference from Zogby

The Zogby trend is very clear. Dean is surging back and should be
leading by Tuesday.

[Nicholas_J]

12. Zogby

Is also the pollster with the fewest years of experince, having only started polling for the 2000 election.

Gallop has been doing it for 60 years, and the other pollsters and polling services for more than a decade.

AS a matter of fact, though Zogby polled Kerry and Dean far closer in Iowa, it was the other pollsters who accuratel ended up more closely predicting the exact point spread between Dean and Kerry.

[JohnKleeb]

14. Gallup was the only one to predict a Truman victory in 1948

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. I don't see it.

Kerry's support seems a solid 30% plus. Dean's hasn't cracked 30% in any recent poll, and the weight is in the lower 20's.
I always saw Dean as having around a 30% solid backing in NH and he may get back up there, but Kerry is building solid support threshold somewhere above 30... Probably closer to 40.

[Raven]

8. Gallup polled me!

First time I've ever been called. I guess I'm one of the 36% for Kerry. A good amount of the questions dealt with who I thought could best beat Bush; character traits and what I thought the most important campaign issues were. :-)