Can you imagine if Dean had won the primary?

[Kazak]

It would've been lights out.

If, if, if...

Edit: puncuation...d'oh!

[knowbody0]

1. he's a bit of a pit bull

and he sure doesn't pussy foot around waiting for the right moment to share his opinion. how positively refreshing

[Dervill Crow]

78. I happen to love pit bulls.

My bumper sticker (well, ONE of my bumper stickers!) says, "My pit bull is smarter than your honor student."

[LoZoccolo]

2. And we know that because...

...Kerry was polling better than Dean against Bush* before the Iowa caucus...oh hey wait!

[Kazak]

3. Eh, Kerry was sort of wooden...

Dean would've come out punching.

[LoZoccolo]

4. Exactly.

That's why more people said they would vote for Kerry rather than Dean...hey wait a minute!

[tkmorris]

12. More people said that

mainly due to name recognition. Kerry was a known quantity whereas Dean was a Johnny-come-lately with a rabid following. Mainstream Dems always pick the "safer" name in a poll like that.

Dig up an early poll from 1992, just before the Iowa caucus, and see where Clinton was polling compared to his Democratic competition.

[LoZoccolo]

13. I don't believe that.

Dean had been on the cover of Time, Newsweek, and U.S. News And World Report, plus he'd had up to 25% leads over Kerry in primary polls. Dean had a lot of attention on him, more than Kerry easily. By January people like Al Gore were speaking as if he'd already won and they started picking his cabinet!

Anyways, I expect Dean's followers to continue to etherealize all the hard data that says it just wouldn't have happened and then insist that it would have with no data at all...which should make me trust them in taking over the party all the more, shouldn't it? Such a firm grip on reality should be refreshing.

[tkmorris]

14. I stand by it

Yes Dean had been getting big coverage but 6 months earlier he had been a virtual unknown. In addition to that Iowa voters tend (IMHO) to be a bit cautious when it comes to new guys on the scene. Your average democratic voter had heard the buzz about Dean but didn't really know who he was. That always makes your support rather weak, even when early polls don't reflect that. One negative sign and those who aren't true believers bolt.

That wasn't the case with Kerry. Kerry was a NAME, trusted and well known, like an old shoe. Gephardt also had that advantage, but a weak campaign caused steadily deteriorating support.

Oh and by the way. I didn't vote for Dean. I wasn't a "Deaniac", though I did subscribe to the newsletter.

[LoZoccolo]

18. You are so busted.

Dean had the biggest name recognition by December (Harris Poll December 10-16th), and was the first one people would name as far back as October:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

I don't expect this to change anything though; they'll come up with some other explanation unmoored from any actual research and that's good enough for them to run around stating it as fact. I took a poll here once about whether or not people could prove that another candidate could have done better than Kerry, and a bunch of people said they could on the poll but not a single one offered an explanation. This is the kind of clear thinking we need taking over the Democratic Party, right?

[ginnyinWI]

22. How I chose Kerry over Dean in 2003

They were equally new to me in the fall of 2003 when I first started paying attention.

Dean had the most name recognition, so I watched him. He was a plain speaker, which I liked, and seemed sincere.

Clark had that strong military resume, so I thought maybe he'd be a good one to beat *. He looked good but didn't have a lot to say.

Kerry was a little harder to get a take on right away. He's not a sound-bite kind of guy--at least he wasn't then. But I was impressed with his understanding of the issues and his calm, cool but authoritative statements. As soon as I looked into his bio and learned that he was also a decorated veteran, and a former peace activist, I was sold.

The main reason I chose Kerry over Dean: temperament. I liked Dean's statements as much as Kerry's, but I sensed that he was a bit impulsive and hot-headed. And that is certainly NOT what I wanted in a president. We already HAD one of those in office already, and even though this one would be a Dem, not a chimp, I still wanted the security of knowing that a cool hand would be at the helm.

[RetroLounge]

29. And how did that work out for you?

Ooops, Kerry didn't win????

So much for temperament.

RL

[LoZoccolo]

36. And which state could Dean have taken that Kerry couldn't?

Same old obnoxious junk day in day out...no answers, no nothing...just snarkiness...

[RetroLounge]

37. Only needed one...

and Who would have (really) fought for the vote count?

Hmmmm.

RL

[theboss]

43. He probably would have lost 5 states that Kerry won

He would have been a disaster, I think.

[RetroLounge]

44. May have been the same result. A loss. Don't know.

But at least we would have had some pride left, and backbone to spare.

RL

[theboss]

45. Please, the man got buried in the primaries

He wasn't a good candidate. Let it rest.

Paul Tsongas had more success.

[RetroLounge]

49. You are correct. Kerry 08

because who needs a spine anyhow...

:eyes:

RL

[WildEyedLiberal]

61. Give it a fucking rest with the "spine" crap and those idiotic emoticons

Dean screaming and shouting doesn't a spine make. And Kerry NOT screaming and shouting and not doing whatever the fuck you think he should've done in Ohio (realistically now; it's illegal for him to don his Nam gear and go commando on the White House) does not a coward make.

Really, bravo. Nice Rove talking points. Why don't you put on a purple heart bandaid while you're at it, since that war veteran is such a coward in your eyes?

[RetroLounge]

65. Ooooh, someone a bit testy

Lets see.

1) Point out rovian whatevers. check.
2) Fantasy what ifs... check.
3) Make up stupid-ass band-aid scenario. check.
4) Put words in my mouth I never said. check.
5) Defend a Kerry no matter what. check.
6) Attack emoticon usage. check.

RL

[WildEyedLiberal]

71. You belittled another posters heartfelt comments upthread

And your only "point" seems to consist of:

"PSSSH! Dean has "spine"! Unlike Kerry! :eyes:"

I'm defending Kerry "no matter what"? Against a stupid and baseless charge of having no spine - yes.

[RetroLounge]

73. Good For You!

Defender of Kerry!

Get a tshirt made...

TL

[WildEyedLiberal]

76. You're cute

Like I'm the only one. Okay. Have fun pretending that Dean would've won.

Oh, and here you go:

:rofl: :crazy: :eyes: :silly:

[LoZoccolo]

46. Not only defeated in the primaries...

...but polled worse than Kerry against Bush*...and not just victorious by a smaller margin, but turning a win into a loss.

May I suggest that that sort of pride in the wake of a defeat you speak of is a white upper middle-class male luxury?

[ginnyinWI]

47. It might have been Nixon-McGovern all over again

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1313929,00.html

[quaker bill]

58. But at least we kept the congress with McGovern.

[WildEyedLiberal]

62. Upper class white male luxury

That does so tend to be the case, doesn't it :eyes:

[LoZoccolo]

20. Here's the poll.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1781615

Brilliant minds at work in the grassroots!

[blm]

9. Like the way he reacted after the media bias post Iowa. He didn't alter

his demeanor one bit. He immediately punched back at the media effectively. The media was so cowed by Dean's forcefulness that they didn't use the editing button to distort or mischaracterize him further.

Face it. Until we expose the truth about the GOP control over most broadcast media, we will never be able to get a fair hearing for our issues or for our leaders.

I support Dean now as chair because he should know this as well as anyone and I expect him to deal with the task of calling out the media for their complicit role in furthering the GOP talking points and agenda.

[Selatius]

5. I think Dean would've been assasinated if he had won the primary

[Clark2008]

25. Neither he not Kerry could turn a red-state, though.

That was always my concern, even though I liked Dean and Kerry just fine.
I want someone who I can sell to my fellow Southern and mid-Western fence-sitters. There are many who are told by the media, day in and day out, to vote Republican, but their better sense (and empty pocketbooks) make them want to dip a toe in the Dem waters - but don't trust someone so far removed from them, geographically and culturally.

[kerrygoddess]

77. Um NH was Red State

And Kerry turned it.

[CTLawGuy]

50. by whom?

Republicans or "Democrats"

[Selatius]

53. A "lone gunman"

Corporatists are found in both parties. Take your pick of the big business players who don't like Dean or Dean's notion of, for example, breaking up the media monopolies. It's not in their economic interests to let Dean get too close to them.

[Hawkeye-X]

6. If Dean would have won the primary

Then we would have been looking at President Dean instead of Chairman Dean, and the fundies would blow their brains out claiming that Dean is Rapture.

[Kazak]

7. Yeah, and it would have been fun to watch in the process...

:D

[AndyTiedye]

8. The Media Woulda Done Him In As Soon as He Looked Like He Might Win

Oh, right. They DID!

[yurbud]

40. they did with the SCREAM, the lamest character assassination in history

Hillbilly Hitler art:



Blog:

[jonnyblitz]

10. it would have been an interesting thing to observe.

that's for sure. :crazy:

[tritsofme]

11. I think I lived through that nightmare already

in 1988.

[Duncan Grant]

15. Dean and Dukakis? There's no basis for that comparison.

:eyes:

edit: subject line

[jsw_81]

63. Dean's not Dukakis, he's more like McGovern

McGovern made all kinds of outlandish statements, supposedly had a huge "youth" following, had all the lefties supporting him and then promptly got his clock cleaned on election day, losing 49 states. Such would have been the case had Dean been our nominee last fall.

[CTLawGuy]

51. who was Dukakis' LT Gov?

oh yeah, John "Electable" Kerry.

[tritsofme]

60. Kerry wasn't my favorite candidate either

but he came within an inch of unseating a president during a time of war, and for that I give him credit.

I think with Dean we would have seen a sea of red. I for one don't see any states that Bush won in 2004 that Dean would have been able to carry.

[CTLawGuy]

68. the question you should have been asking was

Why didn't Kerry crush bush?

Polls show most people disagree with Bush on almost everything. People on this very board have lamented about how people can be so stupid as to vote for a guy they obviously don't agree with.

what they don't see is the other end of that equation, John Kerry. Could it be that people would rather vote for someone they knew, but disagreed with rather than someone new who couldn't express his ideas very well.

[karynnj]

74. He expressed himself very clearly in the debates

which were about the only time he had access to unfiltered air time. His rallies were great - but you could only see them on CSPAN - this was probably only done by people obsessed with politics and who were probably already likely to vote for him.

When you have no access to media it's hard to get a message out.

[CTLawGuy]

80. he had 15 million dollars lying around

at the end of his campaign? Surely you can get some media time with money.


Its hard though when you are trying to make people believe you oppose a war you voted for.

[MaineDem]

16. I think this position is the better one for all of us

I think Dean as a no-holds-barred champion for the Democratic party is exactly where we need him to be. He doesn't need to compromise; he doesn't need to "make-nice" with Republicans; he can be as partisan as he likes. We all win this way.

My personal opinion is that he would have shot himself in the foot too often as a candidate.

But I love him where he is now!

[sendero]

17. I tend to avoid..

... "what if's".

I'm a HUGE Dean fan but I'm not sure he would have done any better than Kerry in the 2004 election.

However, I am sure that his style, meeting the Republican on their own rhetorical ground, is the future of the Dem party.

Right now, Americans are having serious doubts about Bush**. But they don't want to replace him with someone who won't defend himself against something as blatant as the Republican echo chamber.

When more and more Dems get on the bandwagon, get over their fear of talking the way Republicans talk, we can drive these posers out of the white house.

DNC chair is a perfect place for Dean. Intemperate comments that might hurt him were he running for election instead help the Dem party and give candidates a bit of cover to speak out themselves. Too bad that some of them choose to speak out against Dean instead of the real enemy.

[MoonRiver]

19. I don't know if the outcome would have been different,

but I'm sure we would have seen a major fight go down. He would have mobilized the troops like crazy, and Pukes would have finally been forced to realize that REAL Dems are not just lap dogs for them to kick around. I think he would have started a true revolution in the Democratic Party. And THAT is why the powers that be were so terrified of him getting the nomination, and are now working overtime to undermine him as chairman. And I say this as a Clark supporter. Although the General is more discreet in his utterances, I don't think he would have backed down after the election was stolen, either. I really love both these men.

[genieroze]

21. I don't think it would have mattered, the sElection was rigged again.

[The Blue Knight]

23. Dean wouldn't have beaten Bush.

He would've shot himself in the foot numerous times with one of his off-the-cuff, polarizing, lightning-rod type comments he's so prone to.

Personally, I think Gephardt or Graham would've been tough for Bush to beat.

[Larkspur]

30. Dick Gephardt beat the Bush Machine? That's a joke

Gephardt is a wimp, who only feels courge bashing other Dems.

Graham would have been steamrolled too because he was playing by old fashioned rules and the Repukes would have made mincemeat out of him.

[XemaSab]

24. sigh.....

n/t

[cindyw]

26. Yes, I can because the same thing would have happened.

[Kazak]

27. Not sure what everybody's getting all huffy about...

I only mean, in light of Dean's recent criticism of the the GOP, that it would've been fun to watch the fireworks had Dean been the nominee. I too voted for John Kerry, like a good little Dem. :shrug:

[Larkspur]

28. If Dean had the support of most of the Dem Party, then he would have won

the 2004 election, but the DLC clowns would never back Dean.

Kerry was a horrible choice for Prez. He fell into every trap the Repukes set for him.

Dean is a fighter, not a wimp or an elistest, like Kerry showed us. Maybe he would have lost, but the Repukes would have taken a major beating.

[bklyncowgirl]

31. I think you're right. DLC would've undercut Dean

If the corporate wing of the party would unite behind Dean he'd have had a chance. I don't see that happening and they would have been undercutting him at every opportunity, rather as they are doing now.

Dean would've been slamming Bush for the Iraq war but many of the Democrats voted for that same war so in effect he'd be slamming them too.

One thing. He would've gone down swinging.

[Mass]

32. As they undercut Kerry

[bklyncowgirl]

33. Absolutely

Kerry wasn't their dream boy either.

[election_2004]

54. I think what happened was....

When the DLC realized it couldn't get Lieberman, it "settled" for Kerry.

[candy331]

66. I agree Larkspur, seem ones conveniently forget that the agenda

for too many was ABB and ABD and to their chagrin that is exactly what they got Bush and Dean. Dean will spearhead a new day and the Dean haters will be sitting on the sidelines to take the credit. He is big enough to take it though. Some people only want to look good they don't care about being/doing good. I have to say that none of the ones prancing at the gate for 08 is impressive to me , I hope a dark horse is in the shadows waiting.

[ComerPerro]

34. What do you mean by "lights out"

Are you saying Dean would have KOed Bush, or vice versa?

[FrenchieCat]

35. The truth of the matter is that .....

We will never know. :shrug:

Speculation can be interpreted in so many different ways....cause it can't be backed up with nothing but opinions of things that didn't happen.

Let's just say what happened, happened....and more than anything, we need to understand what it will take, next time to win. By that I mean, we have to analyze what issues cost us the election (and for those who don't believe that Bush truly won....then what made it "close"), what mistakes the Kerry campaign made if any; what attributes our nominee may have been lacking based on results in various states; what effect the media had on the whole enchilada....

and based on what we now know, we must plan for the next elections accordingly.

Instead of speculating on the past....let's line our "ducks in a row" and prepare for the future.

K?

[yurbud]

38. two possible outcomes if Dean had won primary...victory or death

He would have won by a landslide or been killed sometime before the election like RFK, who was set to clean Nixon's clock.

Hillbilly Hitler art:



Blog:

[theboss]

42. Then why did he finish fourth in the primaries?

This is like a Bengals fan arguing that if they would have made the playoffs, they would have easily won the Super Bowl. The man wasn't particularly popular with Democrats. How was he going to win a general election?

[yurbud]

48. media character assassination

he was ahead in the money race going into the primaries, and larger percentage than any candidate in history of small donations--then the stupid scream thing.

[SouthernDem2004]

52. But the scream came after losing soundly in Iowa. Dean was in

trouble before the scream.

[theboss]

39. Well, at least we wouldn't have had all those voting fraud threads

45 state landslide losses damper enthusiasm for that.

[quaker bill]

55. You got your candidate, and we worked for him

and just like I said after the Iowa caucuses, we lost by three percent.

Back during the primaries all of this horse race theorizing was tenable.

The experiment has now been run and the notion of "electability" proved to be a false hypothesis. In short, you were wrong about that and your abilities to predict the behavior of the electorate are now rather suspect.

[blm]

69. You'd also have to believe the media and voting machines were not factors

because both proved they handled the election with integrity. There was no GOP control over most of the broadcast media or over most of the voting machines.

Kerry was just unelectable and the debates proved it. The exit polls were also drastically wrong.

[TayTay]

41. But he didn't

He was unable to close the deal. His supporters worked against him in Iowa. He pissed away $50 million dollars for a third place finish. Whatever the reason, he couldn't get it done. He got beat. End of story.

I like Gov. Dean. But his supporters have to get over themselves. He lost. He has not only dealt with it but has used it as an examply of what to do in the future to get Dems to win. Move on people. Ths type of stuff harms us.

[quaker bill]

56. Of course, what he has figured out

is that he was doing the right thing, just not hard enough. Buckle up, it is going to be an interesting ride.

[FrenchieCat]

57. General question?

Is this what one calls a "puff" thread?

[zulchzulu]

59. Imagine the Milwaukee Brewers beating Al Qaeda!

Yeah...

Just imagine...

[quaker bill]

67. With aluminum or ash bats?

[wyldwolf]

64. yep!

He woulda' won about as many states as Kerry did.

[Freddie Stubbs]

70. He either would have won by a wide margin or

lost by a wide margin. It probably wouldn't have been close either way.

[HardWorkingDem]

72. Being able to tell the "truth" might have carried him...

Know this might sound goofy, but I'd love to be able to know what would have happened if Dean carried the nomination.

I think we have seen some amazing things these past few years - whether people like it or not, during the last six years we have seen some history being made (and I don't like a bunch of it - but it has happened).

One amazing thing about the '04 campaign is how the Bush people were able to project a man of strength out of a man who has never had to fight for anything a day in his life, and reduce a man like Kerry into a fabricating wimp (now, I'm not saying Kerry is that, but with all the lies told about him, many people thought that).

But what makes me think Dean might have done better is that he would not have shied away from the truth at all. Recall how Kerry and Edwards had obvious Bush lies right at their fingertips (Cheney's "first time I met" you lie, and the many, many told by Bush), however, for whatever reason they didn't capitalize on them.

Take the weird thing on Bush's back during the debates - clearly there was something there, but Kerry's people didn't want to bring it up out of fear of being conspiritoral - and even though it didn't help Bush, it showed how low that Party will go to win.

But I think our greatest pain from 04 came from not appearing to have a backbone or knowing what we stood for, when the electorate was looking for some sort of alternative plan than what Bush offered. I think Dean would have provided both and would have taken the fight directly to the Bushies. And it wouldn't have surprised me if Dean had chosen Clark as his running mate.

And when people focused on his "liberal" record, they would find out that Dean is not as liberal as he is portrayed (really, does any DUer out there think Dean is a far left liberal?).

Heck, I'm far more liberal than Dean, but love his backbone....that is what we need....


Just some thoughts....

[MrSlayer]

75. I really don't think he would have had a problem going very dirty.

I do believe he would have called Bush a flat out liar at some point.

[Dervill Crow]

79. I don't think there would have been any difference.

Bush would be in the White House no matter who won.

[mirandapriestly]

81. Yep, he'd be in the white house no matter who

won the presidential election, too.

[Dervill Crow]

82. That's what I meant! LOL

Guess my fatalistic thinking made me word it badly. * has lost the presidential election twice and he's still squatting in the WH.