A look at the primaries. Kerry and Dean might have real trouble

[Renew Deal]

OK, here is a look at the primaries. There are a lot of possibilities but the schedule is a minefield for Kerry and Dean.

OK, NH is next. If Kerry wins, it's a big deal but it might not mean much. A strong Dean 2nd would be huge for him. Dean needs a strong second. Anything worse, and he is in trouble. A second or better finish for Clark would be a boost.

Now the fun starts.

February 3

Clark
Arizona
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma

Edwards
South Carolina

Kerry or Dean
Delaware

Edwards, Kerry, Clark all have a shot
Missouri

This means Clark is in good shape and Edwards could be OK. Dean could come out of this in deep trouble. It's possible for him to still not have a win after Feb. 3. Dean was doing well in AZ and NM, but Clark has the support of the Indian nations. That and Dean's scream have probably set him back. Dean could do better if he does real well in NH.

February 7

Michigan
Washington

Kerry and Dean have a good shot in Michigan. Edwards or Clark could do well there too if they have momentum. Michigan went for McCain last time.

February 8
Maine

That's up for grabs. Dean was good there. Kerry is probably really strong there.

February 10
Tennessee
Virginia

TN and VA are major swing states. The winner will get a huge boost. There is an argument there for Clark and Edwards. Dean would have a shot if he was still alive.

February 17
Wisconsin
WI is good for Dean, maybe Clark.

February 24
Hawaii Maybe Dean
Idaho ???
Utah ???

I don't know how this plays out.

February 14
District of Columbia Dean
Nevada Maybe Clark or Dean

Super Tuesday
March 2
California
Connecticut
Georgia
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New York
Ohio
Rhode Island
Vermont

There is a lot here. I am not even guessing. All I can say is that if Clark and Edwards need the other one out. The sooner that happens, the more southern votes they can lock up.

Dean has potential if he can rebound almost completely. States that are more favorable to him come later.

Kerry doesn't have many obviously favorable states.

This race is very much up for grabs. If Dean comes up, he is dangerous. If Clark or Edwards dominate on Feb. 3rd, they are in really good shape. Kerry is going to have to fight for every vote.

I have reason to believe that this will be a Clark, Edwards, Dean race. Sub out Dean if he gets wrecked in NH and Feb. 3. Sub in Kerry if he can pull a couple southern or western states.

[Namvet04]

1. If Joe passes Clark in NH, watch him sink fast

He has a fight now to stay ahead of Joe. You all need to review NH and how they vote.

I just want to vote for someone that has been in our party for a long time.

[jmaier]

5. a fight to stay ahead of Lieberman?

I'd like to see the data that you're basing that conclusion upon.

[Namvet04]

17. Come after me next week after NH, just a hunch and input

from I think really good sources in NH.

[bain_sidhe]

16. Clark has to "fight to stay ahead of Joe"?????

What you smokin'? Can I get some?

All the polls I've seen have Clark at least DOUBLE Joe's numbers. Playin' the "marginalizing" game along with our media friends, are ya?

[Namvet04]

18. People said the same thing in Iowa about Kerry and Edwards

Clark has more to worry about Joe passing him than how far Edwards passes him.

Mark my name down and do your smoking deal with me later.

[Eric J in MN]

2. Since Kerry won Iowa, why not North Dakota and Wisconsin? nt

nt

[Renew Deal]

4. an answer

ND is a pro-gun kinda place. Dean and Clark were doing real well there. Kerry could do well, but he is probably too liberal and not as pro-gun as he needs to be.

Kerry could win Wisconsin. I just think Dean would do really well there. Clark has had good support there too. Then agian, the unions could help Kerry. It depends on if Dean is still alive.

[Namvet04]

7. Bleachers7, forgot to say thanks for laying this all out

Nice work and I will study more.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. America is a pro-gun place. Kerry is a pro-gun candidate.

Being in favor of selling child safety locks with handguns doesn't not make someone anti-gun.

[Kat45]

21. Kerry, pro-gun?? No way!

I have a friend who is a single issue (anti-gun control) voter, and he says there is no way he would ever vote for Kerry. He can't stand him, and although I don't know the details, I'm guessing the gun issue is a big part of it.

[Namvet04]

6. Any state Gore won, Kerry will win over Clark if he wins NH

Clark may not even finish in front of Joe in NH and if that happens and looks like it more and more and he falls in the polls, he may drop out.
Edwards is the one to watch and their is no choice when you put him up against clark in the south.

Going to be interesting.

Who do any of you think that DK and Gep and Joe will back after NH?

Do you think Clark would back anyone if he is out early?

[Renew Deal]

13. More answers

DK will be Edwards. That has become obvious.
Gep says no one.

Joe will back Bush, maybe Kerry.

Clark would be a wild card. I think it would be slim pickins if he drops. I really don't know. I am not sure where you are coming up with Clark falling behind Lieberman.

[Namvet04]

19. Heard today Gep will wait until MO to back someone

Joe said he would back the winner today not bush.

Just watch, Joe may pass him. Clark is falling fast.

I never thought Edwards or especially Kerry could pass Dean. I am still shocked. If Edwards finishes 3rd, I think things will be very interesting.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. What gets me

is that everyone keeps saying Southerners have to have someone from their area or they vote Bush. Bush was born in CT. He is a sham Texan. Frankly, from what some good old boys who said they were Dems told me, any Dem is toast in the South unless they echo the Bush conservative line.

What does this mean? Stop going after Joe Redneck and register new voters, especially minority voters. Make sure that retirees that have moved South (many of whom are concerned with Bush's reckless spending and his shredding of the Constitution)are registered and that they vote. Last of all, talk to young people. Mention the possibility of a draft, and you'll have trouble getting out of the way as they rush to the polls.

[seventhson]

8. Very Interesting. It Looks like Dean still has a very good chance.

Super Tuesday it is but DAMN I did not want to WAIT that long to see Dean win.

[Frances]

12. My theory is that the longer it takes to decide on the nominee

the better it is for Democrats. The contest gets free publicity for all the Dems. It also makes it harder for the media to "Gore" all of the candidates.

I will vote ABB but I hate how the media focuses on Dean's scream and lets Bush off when there was so much negative Repub news this week: the Plame grand jury, the investigation into the Repubs going online to get Dem memos, etc.

[spooky3]

23. I agree with all your points, Frances.

[Renew Deal]

14. Dean needs to survive the front end of this.

I do think that if Dean wins the nomination, he is unstoppable. I just don't think he will win the nomination.

[HuckleB]

10. Interesting assessment.

I gotta say, though, even though I'm a Dean supporter, I'm now scared to death about Kerry winning the nomination. I believe that Clark and Edwards can beat Bush handily, so if your assessment pans out, I will be a happy man, regardless of the demise of my preferred candidate.

[Namvet04]

22. Dean would do better than clark, clark needs to beat Joe in NH

The way clark is falling, he may fight it out with Joe.

Don't give up on dean. I think it would be great to have Dean, Kerry and Edwards in debates.

[HuckleB]

24. I'm not giving up on Dean.

I just know the three who have the best chance to win in the GE, and I'm going to be very happy to see one of them come out as the nominee.

[bigwillq]

11. Any Connecticut Duers out there

What do the polls say, if any, about our state? Who did you think will take it here? Kerry? or Lieberman?

[Renew Deal]

15. I am in NY.

I think Dean was in front there. Then Lieberman. Lieberman would beat anyone there but Dean probably. Dean is a wild card.

[Namvet04]

20. The only one of them that has come to my state is DK

However there is some talk that we could be critical this year.

I have a thought and would love to hear back. The repubs used a senior senator over younger candidates to take on Clinton and He clean Dole's clock. Could the same thing happen to us?

[loyalsister]

25. MO-

Not sure why you counted Dean out. Guns are a hot issue. Conceal carry barely missed on the ballot a couple of years ago. The leg underhandedly passed it and overrode the Governor's veto. Currently it's in the courts. Gun owners are mobilized, and a lot of them are Democrats. The Missouri race will be very tight.

[Renew Deal]

26. I had no idea

how to figure out MO.