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New image for Dean after slide in Iowa polls (moving back up in polls)

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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 10:49 AM
Original message
New image for Dean after slide in Iowa polls (moving back up in polls)
Edited on Fri Jan-23-04 11:30 AM by papau
My opinion: Dean's "I have a scream" speech came with a Dean smile and laugh - and replays are apparently moving his poll numbers back up (overnight TV 7 2 day tracking has Dean higher post debate than predebate, but then again so was Clark higher)- As Deans wife Judy said it "looked kind of silly", but no long term damage so far. But "war" position will not win squat - and Dean's passion on other issues seems what folks want - IMHO.,3604,11...

New image for Dean after slide in Iowa polls

Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington
Friday January 23, 2004
The Guardian

A more humble, more home-loving Howard Dean was unveiled to the television cameras yesterday as aides struggled to relaunch a candidacy threatened by a resurgent John Kerry.

Four opinion polls yesterday delivered the same message to Mr Dean: the 20-point lead he had enjoyed over Mr Kerry before Christmas was no more, and his candidacy for the Democrat nomination was in serious trouble.

Although the numbers differ, all four polls point to the same finishing order next Tuesday night when New Hampshire goes to the polls: Mr Kerry leading Mr Dean, followed by the former general Wesley Clark, and then the North Carolina senator, John Edwards, with the Connecticut senator, Joe Lieberman, coming fifth.

Mr Dean's tirade had a catastrophic effect in the opinion polls. The most damning was a poll in the Boston Herald which showed Mr Kerry leading Mr Dean by 10 points. A Reuters/MSNBC/ Zogby tracking poll yesterday showed the Massachusetts senator on 27% and the former Vermont governor on 24%.

To project a softer image than that of rabble rouser, Mr Dean set up an interview with his wife, Judy Steinberg (her absence was an issue in Iowa where the other candidates were seen with their wives).<snip>

Poll Hints Support for Iraq Policy Strong -1/6 to 1/11 poll
By WILL LESTER Associated Press Writer
January 22, 2004, 7:05 PM EST

WASHINGTON -- Public support for the war in Iraq remains strong, with almost two-thirds of the American public saying that going to war was the right decision, a poll out Thursday found.

The number who said going to war was the right decision, 65 percent, is about the same number who felt that way in December, soon after the capture of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, according to the poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.<snip>

The Pew poll found the public believes President Bush is striking about the right balance in advocating the United States' interests overseas. Almost half said Bush is "about right" in the amount that he pushes U.S. interests overseas. The remainder were evenly split between feeling he is too aggressive or not aggressive enough.

Almost half, 46 percent, said Bush gives an appropriate amount of attention to the concerns of U.S. allies, while 30 percent said not enough attention was paid to their concerns. <snip>

The poll of 1,503 adults was taken Jan. 6-11 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

And to add to the mix Here is Friday 1/23 Suffolk University (NBC)Press Release on NH Poll

Edited on Fri Jan-23-04 10:57 AM by papau
Here is Suffolk Press Release on Poll

Political Research Center
For Immediate Release January 23, 2004
Suffolk contact: Mariellen Norris at 617-573-8450 or
Tony Ferullo at 617-573-8448
NBC contact: Ro Dooley Webster at 617-2485565
7NEWS and Suffolk University Daily Tracking Poll Results
Kerry Holding Lead over Dean; Clark Advances

MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry maintained his lead over Howard Dean in the latest New Hampshire tracking poll of likely Democratic voters taken January 21 - 22. The two day rolling average of 400 respondents gave Kerry the lead with 26% followed by Dean at 19% and Wesley Clark with 17%. The survey carries an error rate of +/- 4.90%
"After four days of strong movement from John Kerry, it appears that the race has settled in with Kerry leading," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. However, the race is not over. Wesley Clark is beginning to close in on the leaders and there are still 26% of likely voters still undecided."

In calls made just on Thursday, January 22nd, Kerry actually led Dean by only 1% margin. The error rate on the one-day 200 interview sub sample is +/- 6.93%.

Kerry's lead continues to be fueled by women, households with veterans, registered Democrats, and regional strength in Hillsborough county - the state's largest county. In all four of these demographic categories, Kerry led by 11%.

Dean continues to be strong among young voters ages 18-34 years (+5%), registered independent/unenrolled voters (-1%), as well as the West/North (-1%) and Central (-2%) Regions.

Of the top three candidates, Wesley Clark was the only candidate to improve his numbers over the last 24 hours. Clark's rolling average climbed to 19% from 17% a day ago. Clark's strongest demographic categories were the Central Region (-2%) and men (-5%). <snip>

+/- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Wednesday, January 21st and Thursday, January 22nd):
John Kerry 26%
Howard Dean 19%
Wesley Clark 17%
John Edwards 7%
Joe Lieberman 5%
Undecided/REF 26% <snip>

on edit: And THIS JUST IN: American Research Group has a new tracking poll with Dean in, yes, third place. The numbers, please: Kerry, 31; Clark, 20; Dean, 18; Edwards, 18. For what it's worth.

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kstewart33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
1. The race is in flux
But Zogby and ARG polls show Kerry clearly moving ahead. Dean could resurge, but there is so little time. I don't think that a Letterman and ABC appearance is enough to do the trick.
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