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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 10:49 AM
Original message
as a Dean supporter I'm feeling better about Tuesday
Win or lose Howard Dean has my admiration for the way he has withstood the storm of the last months and especially the last week. His appearance with his wife Judy was a real homerun. His debate performance was steady and he got his points across. I feel he will begin to close the gap going into this last weekend before the NH primary.

I'm not going to predict victory but I think now that Dean will do better than expected just a couple of days ago. It will give him and his supporters a much needed shot in the arm.

I'm especially happy about the Suffolk Universtiy Tracking poll with responses from Wednesday and Thursday (but before the debate and Primetime interview) showing that Dean has stopped his slide--and that on Thursday, Kerry was running only 1-point ahead of Dean.

Win or lose, Dr. Dean has made a real impact in this 2004 election. I'm hoping on Tuesday he will be "The Comeback Kid".
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mojo2004 Donating Member (94 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
1. If Dean finishes....
2nd and can get more than 25% of the vote, it will be a success, and
he will be back in the race. Dean has to show the momentum has changed. If Dean should drop to 3rd, it will be very difficult to recover.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. I agree with your assessment
Clinton won about 25% in his second place showing in '92 and was "The Comeback Kid"--but third place would be hard to recover.
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jsw_81 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #4
28. Don't kid yourself
It will be devastating for Dean if loses New Hampshire after losing Iowa. Remember, Vermont is right next door! When Clinton did better than expected in New Hampshire in '92, he was Governor of Arkansas; New Hampshire is about as far away from Arkansas as you can get, and Clinton proved that he could do well outside of his native South.

If Dean loses New Hampshire, he might as well drop out of the race to avoid further humiliation in South Carolina, Oklahoma, Arizona etc. If he decides to "fight to the finish," however, he will become a joke and his career will be over for good.
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Nazgul35 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:27 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. Not true at all...
because he will lose to the guy who also comes from the state next door and won Iowa.....

And anyone from that region will tell you that NH is more Mass-centric than Vermont-centric...


Ohh...and it won't be good news for Kerry either if Dean lives, cause after NH, there's no where for Kerry to go....

already, none of the ncadidate are running ads on TV, which suggests to me that they are already conserving cash.....not good...
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jsw_81 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. So where will Dean win after losing New Hampshire?
South Carolina? Nope. Democrats in that state are somewhat conservative, and Kerry just got the endorsement of the state's senior senator. Plus Dean would have to deal with Clark and native-son Edwards, not to mention Sharpton. Dean would almost certainly place fourth in South Carolina, maybe even fifth.

Arizona? Nope.

Oklahoma? Nope.

By the time we get to Super Tuesday, Dean will have lost five or six major primaries and caucuses in a row. You still think he'll be a contender at that point?

"Ohh...and it won't be good news for Kerry either if Dean lives, cause after NH, there's no where for Kerry to go...."

Except the convention and the White House.
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #31
42. Dean's campaign is nationalized and is ahead will finish top 3
at the states march....his message, his people, and his funding we'll see hime through

Perhaps Kerry is the only other candidate can say the same...it should be interesting.

Dean has made his "blunder as is recovering"...how much and how soon...time will tell.

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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #28
48. There are some similarities, though.
Clinton did hold onto an ENORMOUS lead about two weeks out from New Hampshire in '92. He was beating favorite son Tsongas by about the same margin Dean held over Kerry and Clark before Iowa.

Then, of course, Gennifer Flowers and the infamous "Draft Letter" worked their magic on the Clinton numbers, and he plummeted in the New Hampshire polls. He was able to successfully spin his performance, though, because this is Secretariat we're talking about.

I think it's fair to compare Dean to Clinton '92 right now, and I do hope it works out for Howard as well as it did for Bill. :-)
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Snivi Yllom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
51. exactly
a solid 2nd place is all ne needs now. It's not going to be over by Super Tuesday.
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DoveTurnedHawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
2. I Think Dean's Done as Well as He Could Have, Given the Circumstances
He's absolutely taken the right steps. The only question is, will enough NH voters have seen his appearances, and were those appearances in time?

I am so freaked about Tuesday. ARGH! :-)

DTH
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dreissig Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 10:56 AM
Response to Original message
3. Dean's the Boss
As much as Dean's opponents would like to marginalize him, it's not happening. He's the guy everybody is talking about. In New York, the whole front page of the Daily News was taken up with a cartoon of Dean's "failure" in Iowa.

Reggie Jackson saw himself as the central guy on the New York Yankees, saying "I'm the straw that stirs the drink." That describes Howard Dean. No matter what happens from here on out, we won't have the official word on anything until Dean has spoken. He's the boss.
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Auntie Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 04:11 PM
Response to Reply #3
49. But you should say Kerry is the head and Dean's the neck and
the head can't make a move without the neck. Right?

Bias disclosure; I'm the neck in our family. Ask my husband.
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MsFlorida Donating Member (370 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
5. just goes to show
how the media really does influence what people "think". I really didnt see anything so awful about Dean. I personally found the man's actions refreshing, not your typical "sit down, stay in line, be a nice little soldier, I mean student". He truly is a think out of the box guy and we need more of that, much much more.

Perhaps someone can find pictures and sounds of "W" cheerleading. On second thought, never mind that might be too scary
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funky_bug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:14 AM
Response to Original message
6. You really should!
I've never been a big fan of Dean, and in fact have been critical of him in the past. That being said, imagine how far a leap it would take for me to say that I was SO proud of Dean last night? He was, dare I say, NOT presidential. See, that term "presidential" sets him apart from the people. He was "human" and "passionate", and "inspiring." He made me believe in him, for the very first time last night. He took the media spin, and shoved it back in their faces. He stood strong on his issues, gave the reporters the smackdown they deserved, and represented his party with conviction. He was not shaken, he was stirred.

Three words I never thought I'd say about Dean: "I loved him."
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RogueTrooper Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Today
I have watched the Letterman appearance, the Primetime appearance and yesterday's town hall meeting in HN but that was one of the best things I have read about Dean today.
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edzontar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. Thank you, dear lady. It was a beaufiful evening...
Edited on Fri Jan-23-04 11:28 AM by edzontar
Personally. I have always thought that we should unite to defend all the candidates aginst the carping and smearing of the media whores.

I felt that way two months ago, too,and that is why I was so shocked and angered by the "Stop Dean Movement" threads a while back.

As we see new attacks on Clark and Kerry and the rest, I would suggest we form a united front against the puke bastards who are trying to destroy our candidates.

Whoever wins, it should be all for one, one for all, until we defeat our true enemies--the pukes and their media enablers.
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funky_bug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:53 AM
Response to Reply #10
17. I'm with you, kind Sir
Edited on Fri Jan-23-04 11:56 AM by Wife_of_a_Wes_Freak
You all had it right from the start. When Dean had the lead and the media attention, the spotlight was on him, and some of us just flat out believed every stupid freeper spin, in our desire to laud our candidate as the "most electable" or "different from Dean because..." Never once did we try to empathize (not all Clark, Kerry, etc... the "some of us" previously referred to above), and yet now, as all our candidates come under fire (far from equal fire, as the media won't be happy until Dean is buried 6ft under), we sympathize. For those with closed minds, our eyes were opened for us instead. I hate the attacks on Clark, I try to comfort myself with the spin from our camp, and yet... I finally see the hypocrasy in it all.

I hate seeing Clark attacked, but the good in it is, now I hate seeing any of our candidates attacked. If the best thing that comes from this is that we are reminded of who the real enemy is, and that we find some unity amongst all our camps, then God bless the media and the freepers... and God will indeed need to bless them... it's called "Last Rites".

We're comin' for you, Bush. Better get your house in order.
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. I honestly love Dean also---there's something so incredibly human about
him that I don't see in most politicians today.
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LittleDannySlowhorse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. He's a force of nature, that Dean guy
He absolutely does not back down, and that is a lot of why I support him. Whether that will be his ace in the hole or his humiliating undoing remains to be seen, but so far I feel good about his chances.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #6
14. Thanks for your positive comment
it is much appreciated.
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #6
23. Thank you so much
You've described precisely why I am a Dean supporter.

BTW, I was very pissed at the attempt at assassination of Clark by Peter Jennings and wrote to him to take him to task over Bush's military record.

Your post does your candidate proud and I must say, should Dean drop out I will definitely reconsider Wesley Clark.
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wabeewoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #23
27. What a wonderful way to start the day!
Edited on Fri Jan-23-04 01:24 PM by wabeewoman
I feel the same way. I had a thought tho, Walt Starr, about Peter Jennings. He could not have asked the question any other way without taking a major shit storm from the repugs. But he asked the question in a way that left him(Jenning) out of it and asked twice so Clark got a chance to say he'd heard it and others were saying it. He got it out there so I'm not going to be hard on him. Politics is like chess and sometimes what appears to be a step back is 2 steps ahead. Just think...there were alot of people watching that and what they will remember is was bush a desserter? I thought all the candidates, even Liberman, were great last night. I'd take ANY one of them over bush but I love Dean.


Give 'em Hell, Howard! The buck stops with Dean.
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TLM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #27
36. I just wish Clark has said something like...


"I will need to look at all the facts before I can answer that."

Instead of back off the way he did.

Clark could have just as easily said something that would cause major focus on the AWOL issue and not make him look like he was running from calling W out on being AWOL.

Sure it could have been worse... but it could have been a home run, instead it was just a foul ball.
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funky_bug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. Agreed
We all wish he would have pulled more "smackdown", perhaps...

"I thought looking into it was the media's job. But maybe if you weren't so busy trying to predict what sweater I'm going to wear day to day, you'd have more time to do your job."

Ah... hind-site...sigh...
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TLM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:41 PM
Response to Reply #37
43. I get the feeling Clark is a smart tactician...


but just not very quick on his feet in a debate situation.


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funky_bug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 03:02 PM
Response to Reply #43
47. He's not been a politician long enough to BE a politician
I don't think that will hurt his ability to be an effective President, but it does hurt him in debates. He's personable when he's campaigning, and he's down right at ease when he's one-on-one with the people, but he needs some more "field" experience when it comes to being in debates. All that talk about Dean's temper? Please... General Smackdown didn't earn his name for nuthin'. Trial by fire, though... he's intelligent enough to learn from his experiences.
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Northwind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #6
39. Thanks for saying that, Wife_of
You make the other Clark supporters look reasonable. ;)
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HuckleB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
8. The interview was a thing of beauty.
It's sure to be hidden from view as fast as possible. Alas...
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Ripley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
9. Does anyone remember how the media "wrote off" Kerry?
When he fired his campaign manager, all you heard was he's in disarray and it's so sad to see the elder statesman in chaos, going down down down. Kerry's going Down!!

Then they were all so surprised when he came in first in Iowa.

The media is trying really hard to bury Dean. My friend who is totally apolitical and doesn't watch TV a lot asked me recently "Why are they so afraid of that Dean guy? He seems so moderate." Americans are not all sheeple and many if not most can see through this garbage.
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grisvador Donating Member (99 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:29 AM
Response to Original message
13. I am very proud of
all the candidates performances (yes Al Sharpton was thrown a slider and whiffed badly but do you really think anyone should name a Federal Reserve Board Chairman on the fly). Most especially I was impressed with the camaraderie of the participants - Deaniacs should be proud of their candidate who has inspired many politicians to examine and exploit the many chinks in Bush's armor.
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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #13
21. Hi grisvador!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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girl gone mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:34 AM
Response to Original message
15. The media..
went way overboard with their coverage of the, uh, speech. They were revelling in it. As funny and silly as I though Dean's speech was, I got tired ofseeing it and hearing about it.

Now there seems to be a backlash to the Dean backlash. You know, I think it's real similar to what happened to Bush. People like "regular guys." Yes, I know Bush is only "regular" when it comes to intelligence, but I think you can get my point. We've all been embarrassed, we're all insecure. The incident also took the focus off of Dean's large defeat. I think in the end, it wasn't nearly the fatal blow people predicted it would be.
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. I actually think that this thing has been turned around in
Dean's favor. He's gotten to much attention in the past week, and he's only shown strength of character in responding to it. He came back with a vengeance last night. Further, the media has made it perfectly clear that they're out to get this guy, and they haven't even made an attempt at the guise of fairness in their endeavor. Dean hasn't whined about the hit put out on him, but I imagine that he is going to get a large amount of sympathy over this, especially since he's been such a good sport about it. I also think that the media has now "had their shot" at him- any further unwarranted negative attention toward Dean will backfire on them, and that gives Dean a real edge.
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joefree1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 11:50 AM
Response to Original message
16. Yesterday it was the "Scream," today it's "I'm sick of hearing ...
about Dean." I think we're starting to see some "blow-back" on this. Dean may not get selected but his campaign has changed elections forever.

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Algorem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. I love that thing!I know this is meaningless but here's a TV station poll
that should be blown out of the water:"Would you cast a vote for Howard Dean?"It's now 22% yes 78% no. http://www.19actionnews.com (Cleveland CBS station)
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Gin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. just voted yes
YES 39%

NO 61%
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #22
33. Hee hee
46-54 now.
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Schmendrick54 Donating Member (111 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:27 PM
Response to Reply #33
38. Poll now 50-50 (as of 14:25 EST) nt
Schmendrick (who voted yes, in case you were wondering)
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bill Donating Member (333 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:36 PM
Response to Reply #19
41. Is this being "DU'd"?
Yes 51%
No 49%

--
-bill
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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:54 PM
Response to Reply #41
46. Yeah it is!
God I'm really starting to HATE all media whores. ALL of them.
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Algorem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #46
52. 6pm,49%yes,51%no;funny it goes from 22%yes to 51%but won't budge
beyond that,much like Bush's approval rating for some reason never goes below 49%,it hits 49% and inevitably goes up from there.
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eissa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:01 PM
Response to Original message
20. I'm definitely feeling better
today, though I still worry that the media can turn any of our guys into cartoon characters; it doesn't take much -- one little slip and they're on you. Substance? Who cares about that? As Candy Crowley said regarding the debate "they stayed on message, which we (media) hate."
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Gin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:09 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. Dean may not take NH...Kerry may take that one..but dean is coming
back..he was down but not out...he takes a lot of hits and comes back stronger..my kinda guy! We have a lot of states to go in this race.
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John_H Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:10 PM
Response to Original message
25. Dean's got the downward mo slowed? Any more great news?
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #25
32. Yeah...he's got it reversed.
Why don't you take your garbage somewhere else?
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
26. I'm glad WI_DEM!
Dean didn't deserve the negative feeding frenzy. I watched "the speech" live; it was a pep rally, and Dean was grinning, not angry.
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Cuban_Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
30. Dean helped himself a LOT yesterday.
His 3 television appearances may well have salvaged his campaign. I look for him to take 2nd in NH, maybe even a strong 2nd. :)
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #30
53. he has 4 days...with some positive media ,,,he can do it
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Tom Rinaldo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
34. You should be
In addition to the many strengths Dean brought to the race, he did all of the right things in the follow up from Monday. Those are the skills all of the candidates need to employ against attacks.
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Hoppin_Mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
35. Thanks Wife - your post made my day ! -nt-
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David Zephyr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
40. I Think Dean Has Turned It Around Now.
Here's why:

1. Many in the media are already admitting they blew his pep rally speech out of proportion.

2. The Debate helped Dean difuse the issue.

3. Letterman helped Dean diffuse the issue.

4. The ABC interview with Judy and Howard together was an extremely positive and intimate look into who the Doctors Dean are.

I expect to see the poll numbers to look better over the next few days now for Dean.

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TLM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:45 PM
Response to Reply #40
45. Dean is also running some great ads in NH...


I think by tuesday we'll see a very close race in NH with Kerry and Dean neck and neck for 1st, and Clark taking 3rd.

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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #45
50. nice to hear ...the $$$ is coming in handy now
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HuckleB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 02:42 PM
Response to Original message
44. Yeah, yesterday was a good day for Dean.
I think any polling in NH that began prior to this morning is now meaningless. Of course, the papers will report it since substance is so difficult for them to find.
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