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HFishbine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:26 PM
Original message
Post debate poll predictions
Anybody care to join in some useless speculation?

Clark: down
Dean: up
Edwards: up
Kerry: down
Lieberman: up (slightly)
Kucinich: up (slightly)

I'm not basing these solely on the debate performance, but rather the debate within the whole context of expectations, undecideds, who takes support from whom, etc.
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funky_bug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. Predictions
Clark - no change
Lieberman - slightly up
Dean - up
Kerry - up
Edwards - up
Sharpton can't go any further down, but definitely ain't goin' up
Kucinich - toss up... "trip to planet earth?"
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jenk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. Clark does not deserve to go down
he was pretty much set up for political assasination, painted into the corner and had the paint bucket dropped on his head. All the candidates got BS questions.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
3. Because of how tracking polls work, Dean won't turn around until Sunday
But he will pull off an upset or atleast a close second.
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DoNotRefill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. I agree with most...
but don't think Edwards is going to get much of a bounce from the debate, and as much as I hate to say it, I don't think Kucinich is going to get any bounce at all. The people who will vote for Kucinich are the unrepentantly ideologically pure, and he had them locked up a while ago.
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xultar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
5. Wrong...
Clark-Flat
Dean-Flat
Edwards-Down
Lieberman--DOWN
Kucinich-Down
Sharpton-Flat
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
6. Mine
Edwards - Big boost
Kerry - Holds steady
Dean - Holds steady
Lieberman - Big boost
Sharpton - No effect (does he even get any percentage in the polls these days)
Kucinich - slight drop
Clark - big drop.
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leyton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. I'm curious as to why you think Edwards will get a boost.
Just wondering, since I thought he didn't do so great.
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HFishbine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #9
17. Undecideds
and Clark voters. Head to head, I think Edwards outperformed Clark. He'll pick up a point or two from Clarks decline. Undecideds saw enough to know he's for real. He'll get a few points from them.
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:33 PM
Response to Original message
7. no change on anyone
I think things are gonna hold steady until the primary. I don't see anyone breaking away too far (even Kerry) and I see this being a lot closer than Iowa in terms of 1, 2 and 3.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:34 PM
Response to Original message
8. My prediction is the same for Tuesday
Kerry and Clark will continue to climb. Dean will get down to about 15% before his slide levels out. Edwards will gain a point or two.

Kerry 35%
Clark 30%
Dean 15%
Edwards 10%
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MIMStigator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
10. no change on anyone except Kerry UP not much
.
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gulliver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
11. Clark up, Dean down, Kerry down.
Clark's answer to the Moore question is the only answer that will be remembered in a couple of days. It was the debate highlight, and Clark knocked it out of the park.
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
12. Not a lot of movement in the percentages
Dean will still have trouble coming in 2nd place.
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adamrsilva Donating Member (636 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
13. I agree, except Kerry goes up or stays the same
I think he's winning this thing.
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:38 PM
Response to Original message
14. Nah, I prefer useless vitriol...
no poorly hidden agenda there
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HFishbine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. You caught me
I'm trying to advance the cause of Edwards. Right-o!
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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:39 PM
Response to Original message
15. my take on the mo'
and not based on the issues, mind you
Clark: down (but only because of silly spin)
Dean: flat
Edwards: up (way to take on poverty!)
Kerry: flat
Lieberman: up (crowd favorite!?)
Kucinich: up, up, up


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RichV Donating Member (858 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:42 PM
Response to Original message
16. I think it might go like this...
Clark - flat
Dean - flat
Edwards - flat or slightly up
Lieberman - slightly up
Kucinich - slight down
Sharpton - flat

Umm.. I guess I don't think these debates make that much difference. But I still watch. I doubt this did much to convince many undecided to break any particular way unless it's with Kerry since he is already leading and seemed solid. Doubt Dean recovers much, and Clark really lost a golden opportunity because of the moderators' behavior.

Oh, and a post-debate comment... watching Aaron Brown talk to Joe Lieberman is infinitely better than watching Sean HANNITY do it. The difference is amazing.
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Josh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. You nailed it -
I think it'll be a dog race for 2nd in NH between Clark and Dean. The latest ARG poll has Kerry at 31, Clark at 20, and Dean at 18. I think the debate was pretty much a wash. We'll see how the in-person campaigning goes this week. Dean is playing defensive from Iowa, I think, whereas General Clark still seems to be drawing bigger and bigger crowds to his events.
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robsul82 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:46 PM
Response to Original message
19. Jesus, you people are on crack. HFish has it EXACTLY right.
Geez.

Later.

RJS
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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:49 PM
Response to Original message
20. I predict that you as a strong Dean supporter will continue threads like
this
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quaker bill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 10:59 PM
Response to Original message
22. I agree, Dean and Edwards will improve a bit
Hard to say how much because of the debate. Some was probably going to happen anyway.
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HFishbine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 09:14 AM
Response to Original message
23. Kick
for those who had to sleep on it.
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