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Why wasn't Kerry "surging" before Iowa!

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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:10 PM
Original message
Why wasn't Kerry "surging" before Iowa!
What appears to be clear is Kerry was just a side vote instead of Dean. Dean totally tanked out in the last week. Many of the undecideds felt he was the best alternative to Dean, nothing more.

What folks should be asking is why was it that a man that has been campaigning for over 1 year had to borrow against his home for lack of any support, support I should say was in his own nieghboring state.

Funny how the media doesn't report on this or is it they are waiting for the right time?
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BeatleBoot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. If Kerry was a side vote, as you say, then that means...
Edited on Thu Jan-22-04 07:15 PM by BeatleBoot
Dean must have lost Iowa and came in third place.

Ouch!

You know, I like Dean, but with posts like yours, forget it.

By the way, do you have a link to your claims?

Or art thou pontificating?
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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:18 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. you didn't know Kerry borrowed against his own home?
Well i'm not here to keep you current. This is something I will allow you to find for yourself. Trust me , go to Google , you will find all you want in seconds!
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 06:10 AM
Response to Reply #5
31. Here's the actual surge dates. Kerry surge was pre-Iowa
According to ARG's polls, Kerry's surge started on the 12th and Dean began his decline on the 4th. Dean really started taking on water around the 10th of January.

Iowa was on the 19th, fully a week after Kerry began taking off in New Hampshire polls. Things accellerated after the 19th, but the trends wre already there and taking off.

I know, I know... those damn facts...

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patricia92243 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. A person could register and vote riht then and there. If you were a pub
and wanted the election to go a certain way.......
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Uzybone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. You must be new to the process
people do not go and register and vote right away in caucuses. Please get more informed before you smear.
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emulatorloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:36 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. nobody at my caucus was a repub
All bad haircuts and off the rack clothes!!!! Everyone of us a true Dem. :)

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funky_bug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. That is something that troubles me
however, he's raised a small nest egg in the last few days since his IA push, and if he continues to do well, he will continue to raise funds.

The money issue is a valid one, but right now the only issue is if there is enough to get any given candidate through the primaries. Once one of our boys gets the nod, many will rally to support him financially. Bush the Lesser may have a large war chest, but after the internal division subsides, there will be plenty of supporters ready to chip in their money and give their nom the best shot at the big house.

The real question for me is, does Kerry have enough money to continue in the primaries? I know he's a gazillionaire, as is his wife, but he can only use so much personal monies for his campaign.

It all remains to be seen, my friend.
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emulatorloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
4. Because he ran a really good campaign
I was there, I saw it. He connected with people, he moved them, he inspired them. He had great things to say. He said them well. The media didn't report this either.
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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:20 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. ok, lets see here...hmmm
The man campaigns for ooo1 year and is almost at the bottom then within 1 week the front runner does a major bungle and kerry finishes first...yea the campaign he ran that week was fantastic.

I don't agree!
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Uzybone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. what was Deans major bungle
before the caucus?
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isbister Donating Member (902 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. Deans major bungle...
...before the caucus was:

the caucus comments he made years before on that TV show... and then the initial weak response.

not saving the Gore endorsement until closer to the election

marching all of the Washington insiders who endorsed him into Iowa while running as an outsider

saying Carter invited him to Plains and then having Carter say he didn't; that Dean called him

going negative-to-negative with Gephardt and not recognizing what was happening with Kerry and Edwards

...those are a few.


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emulatorloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:37 PM
Response to Reply #6
13. He was 'surging' before the last week
Edited on Thu Jan-22-04 07:42 PM by emulatorloo
around Veterans Day he started connecting w people, people started paying attention. In the final weeks I talked to undecideds and took them to rallies. They liked him. I'm sure I'm not the only one who took undecideds to his rallies.

ON edit: more details
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KittyWampus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #13
18. Nice Myth. Where Are The Polls To Prove Your Point?
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #18
22. All the polls say that. Can you name one that doesn't?
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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #13
26. post the link
to back up what you say!
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displacedtexan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
8. Voters didn't just show up at the caucus...
and decide to vote for him on a whim. They came together, most wearing their Kerry gear, and just happened to have the most supporters there... by far.
Did you watch the Dubuque caucus on C-SPAN? The union guy who ran the caucus was wearing his Kerry button.
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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. yes i did watch it
and to try to convince many here of what you posted will take alot more then a few sentences from you. Do you have an article for me to read? Thanks ahead.
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happyiowan Donating Member (653 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:37 PM
Response to Original message
12. Kerry's Iowa surge
had a lot to do with changes he made on ground here in Iowa. He was actually largely absent from the state until mid-November. He changed tactics moved his campaign here from New Hampshire and began to connect with Iowa voters and the issues that were important to them. I saw Kerry out here at a campaign stop and caucused for him as well. The media can not convey what it is like to actually participate in a caucus. But, I can tell you that we were not out until 9:30 on a 14 degree Monday night looking for an alternative to Howard Dean.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:41 PM
Response to Original message
14. PoliticsNH.com: Kerry's been surging since before Iowa

By WALTER ALARKON (alarkon@politicsnh.com )


Jan. 22 -- Sen. John Kerry's surge to the top of New Hampshire polls may have started when he was still in Iowa. Many polls now show Kerry in the lead. But some had Kerry gaining support in New Hampshire in the days before the Iowa caucuses.

"There's been somewhat of a bump from Iowa, but not a substantial one," said David Paleologos, Suffolk University pollster. Paleologos said that Kerry has doubled his support since early January, when he was at 12 percent in the Suffolk University poll. Kerry has the support of 27 percent of likely Democratic voters in the latest Suffolk poll. "The lion's share really came during movement in Iowa," Paleologos said.

<snip>

Wrighton said that the Kerry campaign's emphasis on tone and electability may have won over voters. "I think Democrats are concerned about the current president, and they're using personality and demeanor as a test to decide the better candidate," Wrighton said. Bob Squires, a teacher from Gloucester, Mass., said that he's been on board with his senator for months. "Kerry's tough," Squires said. "I've seen him heading committees in the Senate for years. Iowa just refreshed my faith."

Kerry's momentum stemming from Monday's victory has also seemed to influence voters.

<snip>

Arthur Jones, a resident of Newmarket, said that he was leaning toward retired Gen. Wesley Clark before Kerry's Iowa win. "I've heard on the news that Clark's the only one who can beat Bush," Jones said. "But then Kerry's on fire now after Iowa. At least it pushed me to give him a second look."
http://www.politicsnh.com/archives/pindell/2004/january...


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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:55 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. as per your article: "days before Iowa"
what about the 1 year before Iowa? What about the lack of contributions that made him borrow agaianst his own home? what about these items I have asked about repeatedly?
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. You mean, why was Dean the frontrunner when it didn't matter?
lol, that's a good question.

I don't really know why Kerry got 'hot' when it counted, while the Dean camp was 'hot' while nobody was paying attention, but my guess is, Dean didn't stand up under scrutiny, while Kerry did.

And why hasn't Dean been unable to translate his financial support into votes?

Another good question.
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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. No more like, why wasn't Kerry the frontrunner when it mattered!
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 05:43 AM
Response to Reply #24
30. Kerry won Iowa; Dean lost; that's when it mattered.
Now it will matter again on the 27th, and we'll see who's the frontrunner then, ok?
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. Kerry has said that he had 20 million in hand
before "borrowing against his house". So he wasn't exactly broke.

His explanation of the loan was to prove to his supporters that he was serious about his run for the presidency...

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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. LOL
we all know when we have more money then we know what to do with, we go out and get a loan to have more money LOL! :dunce:
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XanaDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
17. Actually
Edited on Thu Jan-22-04 07:56 PM by LibertyChick
Kerry began moving up in the polls in Iowa about 11 days before the Iowa caucuses, and on the following days an equivalent rise occured in the New Hampshire polls.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 07:58 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Correct
Kerry was running at about 15 percent in Iowa on January 8-10, and 9 percent in New Hampshire on the same dates. In one day he surged forward in Iowa, and the next day rose from 9 percent to 21 percent in New Hampshire, and since Iowa has started rising 2 to 3 points in New Hamphire, while Dean has dropped 1 - 2 points per day. This is pretty much matching the week prior to the caucuses in Iowa. Kerry was in a distant third behind Dean and Clark on during the first week of January in New Hampshire, with most of the undecided voters in New Hampshire waiting to see the results of Iowa to start deciding who to support. For the last three months New Hampshire voters who were leaning towards Dean, but not part of his base repeatedly stated that they would change their choice as they began to perceive a change in the electability of a candidate as reflected in the Iowa caucuses and it seems that they have been true to their word. Since Kerry's win in Iowa, both Kerry and Edwards have been pulling votes from Clark and Dean, and are picking up the votes that would have gone towards Gephardt, had he not dropped out of the race.

This has been a common pattern in both Iowa and New Hampshire with as many as 75 percent of voters switching from the apparent frontrunner between late November though January to another candidate, once the local media start reporting with greater clarity, the stances of the various candidates at the same time that all of the candidates are running their campaigns at full force.

It equally apparent that the democratic voters do not consider the IWR vote as critical an issue as it was made by other candidates, having heard the facts that the IWR vote was not a vote for war, but that the Democrats loaded the legislation with requirements that Bush did not concur with, such as going to the U.N. (which was forced onto him by Gephardt, Kennedy, and Kerry), and that without their efforts to require the president to go theough the U.N. earlier, Republican based versions of the legislation would have passed, giving Bush a virtual free ride. Even the much touted Biden-Lugar amendment had no requiement for te president to go to the U.N. or have inspectors brought back into Iraq, to determine if WMD's existed. All Biden-Lugar required was the president to tell congress he had resonable suspicions that Saddam was holding onto, or trying to develop WMD's and present congress with a letter outlining those suspicions within 48 hours of attacking Iraq.

Another thing to note is that both of the candidates who were frontrunners in Iowa were the candidates who insisted on the total repeal of the Bush tax cuts, while those who stated that they would retain the middle class tax cuts suddenly moved into very favorable winning positions in Iowa.

It is obvious that both Gephardt and Dean are very out of touch with the voters regarding the tax situation, as well as Dean being very out of touch with voter opinion on the War in Iraq. 75 percent of Iowans oppose the war in Iraq, but it is just not high on their list of important issues for selecting a candidate.

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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. post a link
backing that up!
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emulatorloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 11:58 PM
Response to Reply #23
28. I am not getting your point
Please explain why it is so fantastic to you that Kerry picked up supporters in Iowa and they turned out to support him? Do you think I am lying when I say that I was convinced by seeing Kerry speak several times after Veterans Day (the first time I saw him) that he was the candidate that I wanted to support, even though I had be leaning between him and Dean for a while?
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mitchum Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-22-04 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
27. IOWA is my favorite four letter word this week...
Edited on Thu Jan-22-04 11:43 PM by mitchum
but apparently not yours, And I fucking love four letter words.

Actually, I have a number of relatives in Iowa, and they said that they found a lot of Dean's ground troops to be...well..obnoxious. Why would they say that?
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jpgpenn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-23-04 12:07 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. maybe because they were!
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