If Hillary Clinton is the 2008 nominee..

[liberalpress]

...it's over for the Democratic Party. Last one to leave turn out the light. The republcans could run a dead body against her and win. Surely we're not that dumb.

[ProgressiveConn]

1. I think it would be the end as well.

Not because anyone could win against her but because it would signal that the grass roots populist revolt against the DLC had failed and that economic progressives have no place in the US.

[lojasmo]

2. Not sure about that. (the dumb part)

I won't be casting an ABB vote this time, however.

[liberalpress]

15. What is your reservation ..

...about the "dumb" part?

To most people Hillary is a far left wacko liberal. It doesn't matter how far to the right she runs. The MSM will paint her as a liberal, and since most people get their news from the MSM a wacko far-left liberal she will be. That discredits her (and with one broad brush sroke all Democrats)and that means a major Republican win and if that happens in '08 we are done. Finis. Don't let the screen door hit your ass on the way out.

[lojasmo]

22. not sure about "surely we're not that dumb"

The american electorate has proved many times that it is indeed dumb. Even the smarter half.

[no_hypocrisy]

3. Interesting that you say that. I was thinking the same thing, but

nothing personal against HC. I watched how the RNC was busier picking out the democratic primary winner than the DNC was. And the latter was oblivious to the fact. I can see the same thing happening again. To thwart that strategy, maybe a dark horse out of nowhere (so to speak) to surprise the republicans would be a good choice.

[liberalpress]

4. While it's way to early yet...

...I like Richardson of New Mexico. Liberal, but not so much as to turn off red-staters. In other words a progressive who knows how to pick his battles.

[Warren Stupidity]

5. hard to see how a 'dark horse'

gets the nomination that is decided by open primaries that in turn are won by spending lots of money advertising oneself for election.

If Hillary wins through the primary system, which she won't, I will support her as will just about all of us. My guess is that she will do about as well as Kerry or Gore, which is to say that the election will be decided in a few swing states stolen by the same folks who gave us Ohio and Florida.

[liberalpress]

6. In 1992 Bill Clinton was considered a "dark horse"

[wtbymark]

7. you don't give Gore enough credit

[bowens43]

8. If Hillary gets the nomination

I will be forced to believe that the 'wacko conservatives' were right, that the Kerry candidacy was meant to be a failure, nothing more then a place holder to allow Sen Clinton to complete her first term as Senator before running for president.

She will not get my vote.

[ecstatic]

9. some of you are REALLY out of touch

You rely on folks like Hannity to tell how well Clinton is liked. Believe it or not, most Americans are not right wing. They love the Clintons. The Clintons are celebrities. Celebrities always win.

[liberalpress]

10. If HRC is the Democratic Nominee..

...the GOP will run Condoleeza and then claim a vote against her is racist. Typical neo-con scenario. Let's stop these people now.


edited to fix dropped word

[noonwitch]

18. Hillary would easily beat Condi

People like my Grandpa would stay home. He hates the Clintons, and hates blacks.

In the 1986 Michigan Governor's race, James Blanchard, a white Democrat, ran against William Lucas, a black republican (who had switched parties to run). Grandpa refused to vote for a black person. I suspect there are millions out there like him, and more of them are republicans than democrats.

Black people, on the other hand, would probably overwhelmingly vote for Hillary. Urban voters love both she and Bill. The republicans think that they could make inroads with black voters through Condi, but they wouldn't. I highly doubt Condi will run, anyways.

[Clark2008]

11. I NEVER watch Faux news - don't know a word that comes out

of Hannity's mouth...
But, like the OP, I'm in Tennessee - and I can tell you from a red state with a Dem governor: SHE WILL NOT WIN.
The left hates her.
Moderates tolerate her.
And, she won't flip a red state, blue - may even flip one blue state red.
I DO live in the real world, 'tis thee who doesn't.

[liberalpress]

13. In fact, it seems the right..

..is doing all it can to convince us her nomination is inevitable... I keep hearing the RW talkers on my station say she'sll get the nomination and if she does is un-beatable.

I think it's an excuse to run Condi, a candidate the neo-cons believe thay can control.

[bowens43]

12. Winning isn't everything...,

Bill moved the party drastically to the right, Hillary will move it even further to the right.

Hillary is easily the most hated Democrat in the country and thanks to her recent lunge to the right , it's not just conservatives who despise her. Frankly , I don't know anyone who would vote for her.

A win with Hillary would be a huge loss for liberalism and our party.

[Catch22Dem]

14. THE most hated?

I doubt that.

[Selatius]

16. Bill Clinton won, but the party suffered heavy defeats during his tenure

The Senate and the House were lost. The only way anything worked was because of Clinton's charisma, and frankly, most politicians don't possess that talent.

Getting a Clinton into the White House won't necessarily translate into regaining both the Senate and House. It has to be a long-term strategy, not a short-term one.

[abluelady]

17. And if Hillary Won.....

What would end up happening to our country. The right wing nuts would be so busy trying to burn her that nothing would get accomplished, which is what they want, but not us. Bill Clinton was so stifled because of the nonsense the right wing caused, America was unable to do the work it needed. I do not want to see that happen again, and I like Hillary!

[Donna Zen]

19. Money-Insiders-Endorsements-Money-Media Dominance-Money

Hillary is running. She will suck all the money, all of the support of party insiders, all of the money, all of the media, and did I mention--all of the money. Forget rebranding the party; let's just reinforce the same o'l same ol'.

It is not just that she is currently running to the "right;" it is that she would need to govern to the right because the American people do not trust her. Any policies that would be perceived as "progressive" or "liberal" would be suspect and would have a negative impact on the next election. And that is what it is all about isn't it? The next election--never what is the good for the "common good."

It has been written here that the grassroots doesn't like Hillary; and yet, over the next few months I expect to see an increase on this and other supposedly progressive forums advising me to "shut up, sit down, and get in line." It has already started. One poster decided that I was against women in politics if I didn't support "the Hillary." Actually, I'm against a Hillary run because I do support honest women with a strong core of beliefs who rise on their own merit.

Well, the bubble that Hillary travels in of advisers and cheerleaders, those who stand to benefit from face time and big campaign bucks, have obviously convinced her that however slim the chance, it would worth the risk to the nation to stroke her ego.

So Hillary is running and yes, she will win the nomination. Did I mention the money? That she will lose in the general election is probable, but not inevitable--the republicans may after all decide to stay home, not have a nominee, and sit out 2008.

[OneTwentyoNine]

20. She can send me all the "ball bat" type of fundraisers she wants...

I'm not sending a dime her way. My respect for her went south when she voted for Iraq,it went off the map with her finding "common ground" with Operation Rescue.

Go ahead and run Hill,see how much grassroots money you pick up like Kerry and Dean did. My guess?? Very little.

[Donna Zen]

23. She'll have Big-Big-Big money from the fattest cats.

I would dare say that the DNC will also request that we give.

I took a second job during the last election to give money without putting pressure on my family; I will not do that for a party that doesn't care what I think.

Note: The director of Hillary's PAC, Ickes, just took over ACT.

"Syria must be punished," Hillary.

[liberalpress]

21. You said :

the republicans may after all decide to stay home, not have a nominee, and sit out 2008


I say power once acquired is not given up without a fight.

[Donna Zen]

24. Exactly

In fact, I would just bet that they are working on plans for expanding their base as opposed to our plans to shrink ours.

[Township75]

38. You are dead-nuts on! I think she gets the nomination if she wants it b/c

she and her husband bring in the most money for the party. Why that is the case, I don't know, but they do.

I get depressed when I think how many people on this board will have to alter their thinking and suppress or change their values in order to get onto the Dem nominee cheer leading squad.

For me, it's simple...I won't. If she gets the nomination, I will likely stay home from the election; I sure as hell won't vote Dem if the nominee of the Dem party doesn't stand for anything, and jumped in front of others in the quest to become the nominee because she is a celebrity.

There are soooo many other great candidates to pick from, why this one?

[formernaderite]

25. Many of us would vote Green

no more triangulations....they confused the public and got us where we are today

[Nye Bevan]

26. Don't write off Hillary

The theory that Hillary cannot win reminds me of the conventional wisdom early in the 1992 campaign that a philandering draft-dodging failed small-state governor stood no chance against the triumphant Gulf War hero George HW Bush. Hillary has a great chance of winning-- the election, as well as the nomination. Living in the NY area I witnessed her hugely impressive, absolutely flawless senate campaign first hand. She is intelligent and politically very shrewd. She did overreach a little with her original attempt at health care reform, but at least she knew that there was a problem and tried to fix it, and I am sure she will get it right as president.

I disagree that Hillary is as repugnant to potential republican voters as many people seem to think. I personally know people from NY who split their vote in 2000-- Bush for president and Hillary for senate. I like her attempts to find common ground on the abortion issue-- hardcore "pro-lifers" will not vote for ANY democrat and she will build her appeal to the vast majority of people who are somewhere in the middle on this issue.

As a mathematician I always find it interesting to look at the odds in the market, since these should reflect the true conventional wisdom (in the sense that if you disagree, and you are right, you can make money). Tradesports.com gives Hillary a 45% chance to get the nomination (Evan Bayh is second at 10% and Mark Warner third at 9%, followed by John Edwards at 7%). So Hillary is clearly the overwhelming favorite. Now if you scroll down on the same site you will see that the Democratic candidate (whoever he/she is) is given about a 50% chance to win the 2008 election. These probabilities-- Hillary having a 45% chance to win the nomination, and the Democratic party having a 50% chance to win the election-- are simply not consistent with the "Hillary cannot win" theory.

[Discord]

28. Call me crazy... but I don't like to gamble

with the future of my country. I said it in other forums and I will say it again here. If she run's. I'm outta here. Canada here I come! She WILL NOT WIN! Period. The end. She will not turn a single red state blue and may lose a few blue states as well. She is NOT popular, she is NOT well liked. She is NOT charismatic like Bill was. She is far too willing to kiss the ass of the right wing. I know far more Dem voters who would absolutely NOT vote for her. I would guess a 58% - 42% - 10% Landslide win for the Republicans.

If this is what you want. Then by all means....

Support Hillary!

[Nye Bevan]

30. I am keeping an open mind

I will not necessarily support Hillary but it's about 3 years too early to be writing off any possible candidate. Early in 2004 the conventional wisdom on John Kerry was that his candidacy had been a disaster, and he came within about 50,000 Ohio votes of becoming the president. There will be plenty of time to evaluate each candidate's positions and chances of winning, but I think it's just too soon to discount anybody completely. If the polls in primary season show that Hillary would lose to the republican then I would certainly throw my support elsewhere.

[Discord]

31. Your first mistake...

You actually believe the polls.

Please understand ALL POLLS ARE MANUFACTURED!

Even the ones you might agree with.

[Donna Zen]

32. Hillary has 100% chance of winning the nomination

That's what having all of the money means in this, the best democracy money can buy.

That may be unsound math, but that is the way America works.

And I am sure that all but the few will follow the pack and vote for Hillary.

Her politics? Her stance on war? Her vote on the Patriot's Act? Her support of NCLB (let's just bust public education) Her new found respect for Operation Rescue?

Hey_don't any of us dare--dare to have some remaining sense of integrity. Get on board!

Formulating probabilities without knowing the name or demographic appeal of the opposition may be very meaningful to some, but I question the assumption. 50/50 tells me that something's got to give. Some votes must be moved or we are going down to the same 50/50 split that has lost us the last two elections. Of course maybe Hillary has seen the light on BBV. When she could have done something about it during a trial run in Conn. before this last election, she said it was just fine.

[Mass]

27. Short of Dean revitalizing the party

The Democratic Party is already dead.

The results of the vote on the Bankruptcy Bill and the "Tort reform" show that nearly half of the Democrat vote with the RNC. This is not a party, but two parties living in the same shell.

Hillary is just the perfect example of that, running to her right each time she can without danger.

[Darkhawk32]

29. What state would Hillary win that Kerry did not?

I don't think she would be any better. Kerry is our best option right now.

[Nye Bevan]

33. Hopefully the big 2, OH and FL...

I would like to see Bill do a lot of campaigning for her in both of these states.

[Donna Zen]

35. That Ohio and Florida dog doesn't bark.

1992 was yesterday...not tomorrow.

[DemDogs]

44. Kerry didn't send Hillary either place

What does that tell you about her polling?

[Nye Bevan]

46. That is incorrect....

http://www.sptimes.com/2004/10/24/Decision2004/Sen_Clinton_backs_Ker.shtml

[LoganW]

34. Agree

Anyone notice FOX et al seem to be the primary ones talking about this happening? It's Rove trying to select our candidate.

[GOPBasher]

36. I pretty agree.

I've been saying forever that Hillary does not give us a very good chance of winning. We have several great potential nominees; we should get one of them.

[demokatgurrl]

37. Sadly, I think you're right-

which is really a shame because she would make a VERY good President. But we are just too Puritan and old fashioned and SCARED in this country to elect a strong woman.

Our loss, not hers.

[liberalpress]

39. I've said it before and I'll say it again.

Condoleeza Rice is a woman the neo-cons can control. She will, apparently, do anything they say. If they can get us to nominate Hillary, Condi will be their candidate, and if you don't vote for her, you'll be branded a racist.

[tom_paine]

40. No way the Imperial Family is going to turn over things to a House Servant

Even IF they thought they could trust her, first off, it would turn off so much of their base they may have to steal more votes than usual.

Second, for the same reason no Jew was ever named the Capo De Tutti Capi of the Mafia.

The Mafia will accept the help and friendship of non-Italians, but in the end, it is THEY who get whacked or betrayed because "they aren't one of us".

And what is the Imperial Family of Amerika but a variant of any other Crime Family, including the Mafia?

I don't think it's possible, even IF Hillary gets the nod.

I'd say it was a mistake, but I simply don't see how it would be possible for ANY Democratic Candidate to be named Emperor, given the Totalitarian condition of Amerika and it's Subjects, even if we ran Teddy Roosevelt and Jesus Christ.

[Donna Zen]

41. Condi Rice will not head the republican ticket...

although she may be in the vp spot. Especially if she makes progress in the ME with the attendent "good" press.

[Jesus Saves]

42. Think again

The Clintons are winners.

They don't lose.

[_TJ_]

43. Is it better to win or to abide by your principles?

I'd rather support a candidate I respected and still lose
than a repug-light and win.

I'd vote for Hillary in a nanosecond.

[robcon]

45. I would be proud to vote for my Senator, Hillary Clinton

She will make a great president.