Will State of Union slow Kerry's momentum?

[Quixote1818]

Kerry just won Iowa but it seems the State of the Union speech will attract most of the news media for the next couple of days then when people tune back in Kerry's momentum will be slowed and the race back in full swing. Will the speech hurt Kerry’s momentum?

[slor]

1. His last state of the union had dismal rating?

I thought I saw that somewhere.

[bobbieinok]

2. 'losing' polls and being 'counted out' didn't --

why should SOTU??

If all the candidates and the DUers pay attention, the democrats will certainly have major attack points against W.

[hatrack]

3. Depends what's on cable in your area, I guess

You could probably persuade me, without breaking much of a sweat, that reruns of "The Patty Duke Show" on Nick at Nite or "CopRock" on CourtTV would probably beat the Chimp's big moment.

[West Coast Democrat]

4. Nah! Dem Primaries are Stealing the SOTU Thunder!!

Bush* will get a small bump, then NH will come around and everyone will forget about him!

[cindyw]

5. In fact, I think it is good for the dust to settle.

The last thing Kerry needs is to have to carry the front-rummer mantle into NH.

[Monte Carlo]

6. I wouldn't say 'slow down', but it might speed others up...

... which would have the net effect of slowing Kerry down. It all depends upon what Bush says, if anything. Me, I'll be happily watching something else; I can catch the summary in the morning's headlines.

[Monument]

7. It won't

I think that on a national scale, the Bush State of the Union will dominate the headlines.

BUT in New Hampshire, ALL the talk is going to be about the campaign. This is a very, very big deal in NH, and it's one which is taken very seriously.

The Kerry story is going to play big in the Boston area, of which S. NH is a suburb. People who stopped looking at Kerry due to his floundering campaign WILL give him another look.

The NH voters will not be slowed down due to the State of the Union. But the polls which show Kerry surging in NH may not get as much play outside of New England.

[mot78]

15. I agree with you

And welcome to DU batonkatonk :toast:

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. SotU will be full of ammunition for Kerry and all the candidates to use.

And by Thursday night we'll know who used it best.

[jpgray]

9. I predict a pundit ORGY on how "good" this speech is

Wolf will literally be rubbing a copy all over his naked body on CNN, I'm sure.

[sangha]

11. And I predict "No bump for Bush*"

from the SOTU. This year he is going to bomb with the public, no matter what the pundits say. They don't want to hear about Mars and Libya.

[jpgray]

12. Rove has had a series of political misfires

Let's hope the trend continues. :toast:

[sangha]

13. IMO, Rove is not the political genius behind Bush*

Bush* is.

[Nite Owl]

10. It might help.

Last year's yellow cake lies, the lack of jobs, most people feeling that the tax cuts did nothing for them, the immigration and moon base proposals have done little to help him. This year will be scrutinized more carefully. Of course that's a logical way of looking at it.

[madrchsod]

14. no

if anything it could help all the democrats. after all it`s a democratic primary not an election.bush can say what ever he wants the democrats have to find their own voice..

[dreissig]

16. Kerry Has No Momentum

The Iowa results are anomalous. Kerry doesn't have numbers like that anywhere else, and neither does Edwards. Preference testing is full of paradoxes. There was a blip on the radar screen when a bird flew into the transmitter. There's no way to know what really happened.

Kerry was nearly out of the race before Iowa, and it's too bad this flukey thing happened. Now he'll stick it out until the big primaries.