Kerry also leads in 2nd choicers, undecideds in Iowa

[windansea]

From the same list, who would be your second choice?

Kerry 25%
Dean 17%
Edwards 18%
Gephardt 14%

If you had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning toward? (Asked only of those who responded "Not sure" to the first question.)

Kerry 17%
Edwards 15%
Gephardt 10%
Clark 4%
Dean 3%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3936832

[Renew Deal]

1. That's the number that matters.

I have been wondering why no one has been asking this. Then again, Second choice doesn't matter for some of these people. It doesn't matter who the second choice is for a Kerry, Dean, Gep supporter. They will make 15% at almost every caucus.

[blm]

8. Gary Hart has said always pay attention to who the #2 choice is

for many.

[sangha]

9. Thanks. I was trying to remember who said that

It's something I've been thinking about for months.

[JohnKleeb]

13. and hes been on fire lately

Poor guy though, sorry he lost his voice.

[Paragon]

2. If they're not sure who their SECOND choice is?!?

Wow, that's so dumb I can barely comprehend it. Well, of course, Dr. Dean would place last in "who's your third choice?"

[Dookus]

3. Kerry's gonna win Iowa....

and perhaps NH, from the bump he'll get.

And I'll be thrilled. Kerry's my #2 choice, and I'd be thrilled to vote for him in November.

[KC21304]

4. Thank you for your kind comments.

Kerry/Clark/04



By the way, I have been pushing Kerry/Clark since way before Clark announced.

[Cuban_Liberal]

14. Dean wins Iowa, Kerry finishes a strong 2nd.

With his bounce from iowa, Kerry goes into NH and supplants Clark as the 'un-Dean', while Edwards uses his Iowa bounce to take 3rd place in NH from Clark. :)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. Wow look at that last number

only 3% of undecideds leaning towards Dean. He is not winning over new people.

[blm]

11. That will be his weakness in the general. He doesn't wear well on

undecided Democrats, let alone in the general election.

Undecideds are more like the general electorate.

[incontrovertible]

6. Kerry wins in a landslide

Game Over, folks. Here's the real deal about this poll - the combined favorable / unfavorable ratings:

Overall opinion - Howard Dean
Very favorable 31%
Somewhat favorable 36%
Somewhat unfavorable 16%
Very unfavorable 13%
Not familiar 3%

Favorable: 67%
Unfavorable: 29% (incredible - he's history)


Overall opinion - John Edwards
Very favorable 38%
Somewhat favorable 36%
Somewhat unfavorable 5%
Very unfavorable 4%
Not familiar 17%
Not sure 1%

Favorable: 74%
Unfavorable: 09% (would be higher due to IWR if familiarity was higher)


Overall opinion - Richard Gephardt
Very favorable 34%
Somewhat favorable 41%
Somewhat unfavorable 14%
Very unfavorable 7%
Not familiar 3%
Not sure 1%

Favorable: 75%
Unfavorable: 21% (knee-jerk IWR one-issue voter reaction)


Overall opinion - John Kerry
Very favorable 40%
Somewhat favorable 39%
Somewhat unfavorable 7%
Very unfavorable 6%
Not familiar 7%
Not sure 1%

Favorable: 79%
Unfavorable: 13% (knee-jerk IWR reaction again)


The Dean Express has been derailed. Not only is he going to lose Iowa, he's going to come in third, then second (at best) to Kerry in New Hampshire, and then out.

Yeah, yeah, I know, "polls," and GOTV, and youthful Internet campaign full of vigor, and etc. Seen it before, did it myself in '92. Bottom line, the establishment has spoken, and Dean has been stopped. I didn't like it when it happened to Jerry, either, but reality is what it is.

Kerry's the nominee, and Clark will be crushed in New Hampshire.

You watch.

[windansea]

7. nostradamus??

is that you??

Clark has best NATIONAL favorable/unfavorable numbers of all dem candidates in CNN poll

Wesley Clark

Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2004 Jan 2-5 37 26 21 16

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-01-06-poll.htm

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. that's the bottom line behind a 2nd choice- favorability

it shows positive sentiment for a candidate no matter who the first pick is.

[poskonig]

12. Those numbers are awesome.

Hopefully they will be sufficient to overcome organizational disadvantages.