In S.D., Is it reasonable to hope that Daschle will hold seat?

[papau]

exit polling, I am told, has him down 3% at 3pm. Does a Dem evening surge seem unlikely?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. He Can Be In Kerry's Cabinet...

SD is a hopeless red state...

[jezebel]

7. Andrew Sullivan claims he is a goner NT

[x-g.o.p.er]

2. Exit polling is unreliable!!

Especially in a close election. Don't get either too complacent or too encouraged.

GOTV!!

[FARAFIELD]

3. YES

I raised the question last week, about how Harry Reid would be as our leader and nobody wanted to broak it. However, if Bunning is Upset in Kentucky, it will be a wash. Who would be our Whip or Assisstant Majority Leader.

[mr715]

4. No.

Harry Reid will not be majority leader. Hes pro-life.

If Daschle goes, I bet Hillary would go for the majority leadership. If not her, perhaps Feingold, Feinstein, or Biden

[Roland99]

6. Anyone but Hilary....oof

[Catch22Dem]

9. Why?

[Roland99]

10. Because I cannot stand her...never did like her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. He Has The Burden Of Serving In A Puke State..

It's a testimonial to his political skills that he lasted this long...

[hatrack]

8. Hard to say - very, very close in SD

Daschle's been able to rally the NA voters on the big reservations in the western part of the state, but that's a relative thing, since 20-25% total turnout is a "good" result on Pine Ridge or Rosebud. He'll probably also do well in Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls), the only really big city in the state. Beyond that, Daschle is fairly popular statewide, since lots of Dakotans like having a senior politician in DC - Pork-O-Rama.

However, it's an also extremely conservative state on social issues, and you couldn't slide a credit card into the space between John Thune and the Christian Right. Some poli-sci people I've talked to in SD say that the reason Johnson (barely) won in 2002 was because of Bush refusing to extend drought relief in the middle of the worst drought in living memory.

No fuck-up on that scale took place during this two-year cycle. Janklow's manslaughter conviction was probably enough to get Herseth into the House, and she's likely to win her first full term tonight, but the impact has faded since then.

Bottom line - too close to call.

[papau]

11. Thanks - just getting nervous! :-)

:-)