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RW Bloggers Desperate: Claiming that K/E Pollster Predicts Bush Win

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Skinner ADMIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 12:57 PM
Original message
RW Bloggers Desperate: Claiming that K/E Pollster Predicts Bush Win
Here's the newest meme from the right-wing Blogs:

"JOHN KERRY'S chief pollster predicts a 3-point Bush victory."
Source: http://instapundit.com/archives/018882.php

"Democratic Pollster Predicts Bush Victory"
Source: http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/002962....

It's crap. They're taking his comments totally out of context, and missing the whole point of the article.

Here's the *actual* article from Kerry Pollster Mark Mellman, in which he predicts a Kerry victory, despite the huge obstacles facing of our candidate (emphasis added):

The uphill fight is impossible to predict now

You, dear reader, have the advantage over me. I am writing this Sunday, before the election takes place. The opportunities for me to look foolish are legion. So I will resist both predictions and triumphalism.

For months, though, Ive been assessing President Bushs vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right.

(snip)

So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated.

You soon will know whether Kerrys appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbents strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.

http://www.thehill.com/mellman/110204.aspx


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Skinner ADMIN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:03 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kick (nt)
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Barad Simith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
2. thanks Skinner
I'm glad I saw it here first, in its actual context.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
3. I heard Rush mentioning this today...I was thinking....WTF?
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wicket Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:06 PM
Response to Original message
4. Instapundit is a hack
He sucks so much!
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geek tragedy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:08 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. This was one of his hack replacements.
He had three sub in for him. All three Repukes, but the other law professor was at least thoughtful and intelligent.

Michael J. Totten is the "I used to be liberal, but now I'm just thoughtful" weenie that wingnuts love to cite.
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pabloseb Donating Member (510 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
6. Well, that article does worry me a little bit

Not the freeptard response, which is spinning out of control. But I thought that it was the chimp campaign that had the bad (for them) numbers. No it seems that both sides are seeing a very close race.

I'm still encouraged by the huge turnout and think Kerry's going to win! :)
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troublemaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:28 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. there are NO BAD POLLING NUMBERS IN THE ARTICLE
It's an historical trend piece that doesn't even allude to opinion polling.
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Pithy Cherub Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:12 PM
Response to Original message
7. Thanks for the reality context,
the freepers continue to worship a river in Egypt and we like being in the Reality-based Community.
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troublemaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:18 PM
Response to Original message
8. Short Version: The article is not about polling and makes no predictions
There is no information in this article about polling, and ZERO information about Kerry campaign internal numbers.

The word POLL doesn't even appear in the fucking article!

He says historical/economic modeling suggests that other things being equal Bush *should* get 51.5, but other things are not equal and he will probably not do as well as that modeling suggests.
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GreenPoet64 Donating Member (897 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
9. Interesting.
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cheshire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
10. Desperation stinks.
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Snivi Yllom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-02-04 01:30 PM
Response to Original message
12. it's not exactly a rosy picture for Kerry
Mark Mellman seems to be forecasting an ugly hard win

Not a landslide by any means.
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