Iowa predictions - general poll

[jeter]

Poll question: Iowa predictions - general poll

Okay it's tight. I love tight races. It could go any way. Although my gut still tells me that Gephardt and Dean finish 1 and 2. I don't know who finishes first, but it'll be one of them. I don't care what Zogby says.

Because this is a "caucus" election. How can you poll for a caucus? It's about organization and getting out the vote.

In fact all this press about "Kerry's surge" will hurt him if he doesn't at least finish a strong second. If he finishes far behind or even third, all the air will be let out of his balloon.

Anyway, that's my opinion. I really can't say for certain who will win on Monday, but will be glued to my TV just the same.

So here it is, the unofficial Iowa caucus prediction poll. Who will win it?

[jeter]

1. wow, no one thinks Gep will win?

[TLM]

2. THis is a caucus state... not a primary.

Dean and Gephardt have the organization on the ground and that is what matters most. And Dean has a bigger organization than Gephardt does.

My guess would be, when all is said and done, Dean 35% Gephardt 25% Kerry 20% / Edwards 20%

[jeter]

3. I agree

I don't know about the numbers. Gephardt has a good organization. But a third place (or gasp) fourth place showing for Kerry would be a disaster with all the attention he has been getting.

[saltpoint]

4. I agree with everyone who mentioned the --

-- volatility of the caucuses, but I'll say it finishes like this:

Kerry -- 24%
Edwards -- 21%
Dean -- 20%
Gephardt -- 18%
Kucinich -- 10%
Others -- 7%

I seriously think Kerry's snowball fight helped, and the helicopter didn't hurt, either. Iowans seem to like his approach to them.

Edwards will place a strong second and may be adopted by several famlies in Iowa. They love him.

Dean's supporters stay true-blue and hold strong ground in the face of the anti-Dean onslaught of the past 2 weeks.

Voters vote FOR other candidates and not AGAINST Gephardt, but it's not enough for him to carry the day.

Kucinich surprises everyone with a great showing. I don't know if he can do 10%, but I want him to -- just to show up Ted Koppel.