Polling in SW Florida shows 55% Bush, 41% Kerry, this is GOOD

[ShaneGR]

Saw this on the TV, so don't have a link, but for Bush to only have a 14% win in this area of Florida would be a DEATH BLOW.

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Are you sure?

This isn't the I4 area is it?

[My Pet Goat]

4. I4 is up north...

in the central florida area I think.

[alcuno]

5. SW Florida is the Naples area.

I4 is middle of the state - Orlando.

[freedomburn]

That is great news man.

I hope it holds.

-freedomburns

[PA Democrat]

2. Do you know how that compares with 2000?

n/t

[dennis4868]

3. can someone fill me in as to why....

this is GOOD news for Kerry to be 14% behind in Florida?

[jab105]

7. Sounds like the Naples/Fort Myers area...

which is very Republican...now, if it includes Tampa/St. Pete...than it is a bad thing...

[ShaneGR]

15. Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties

So not Tampa...

[PA Democrat]

8. It's just one area of Florida that I am assuming is heavily Republican n/t

[Zynx]

9. 14% behind in that PART of Flordia.

That part of Florida is what we were all hoping the hurricanes would destroy because it is one of the most hardcore right areas in the state.

[helpisontheway]

14. The poster is saying

that Bush has only a 14% lead in a part of the state where he should be winning big-time. Kerry's strengty is in Miami-Dade and Broward I believe. So if he does decent (or better than Gore) in the other Republican-leaning areas that is a good thing. We have the same thing going on here in Virginia. They don't expect us to carry VA down here in south-eastern VA but they want us to get just enough so that combined with Northern VA (more liberal) it will put us over the top(hopefully).

[Awsi Dooger]

17. That's a VERY conservative segment of the state

The Naples area. Once you get south of Tampa on the west coast of Florida it becomes increasingly Republican. The district with Katherine Harris is in that area, a little bit farther north near Sarasota. The panhandle is also conservative. Democrats rule on the southeastern coast, Miami north to Palm Beach. The Orlando area in Central Florida is considered the swing section of the state

[calimary]

20. Yeah, I don't get it, either. That doesn't look like such good news to me.

Ideas, anybody?

[carpetbagger]

25. I lived in Southwest Florida. This is good news.

Those three counties combined went by more than 60-40 for BUsh in the last election. Bush won those counties by a total of 130,000 votes, but still probably got less votes in the state than Gore. So this poll would mean that Kerry is running (in 2000 turnout and population terms) 30,000 votes ahead of Bush, in this region alone.

These places are very white, tending to get more affluent retirees, more from the midwest than east coast. The place looks like one giant country club.

[CindyDale]

6. Kerry has to win most of south Florida

It's the northwest where they generally vote Republican. Where did you see this?

[carpetbagger]

26. "South Florida" means Miami-FtL-Palm Beach.

In Florida the term doesn't really include Naples and Ft. Myers, which is identified as Southwest Florida. Naples (where I used to live) in functional geography (sports teams, movement of people, regional offices, etc.) is closer to Tampa than Miami.

[CindyDale]

27. It means Naples area? OK, good

Sometimes journalists/writers refer to the bay area as west central Florida and sometimes they call it part of southwest Florida. It depends on how they want to divide it up.

Gore won in the parts of Florida that were eastern time zone in 2000, remember? Here in Pinellas, Gore won but not by much, I think.

Kerry is supposed to be ahead in polls in Hillsborough (Tampa), but Bush slightly ahead here in Pinellas this year. I am hoping turnout will give Pinellas to Kerry, though.

Cindy

[CindyDale]

28. I mean SW means Naples LOL

[Randi_Listener]

10. SW Florida?

No one lives in Southwest Florida.

The populations are concentrated in Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Tampa, and Orlando.

The other areas are irrelevant.

[HFishbine]

18. And the Panhandle

Highly republican.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

23. Leon county in the panhandle is very democratic

[derbstyron]

11. Conservative Area

This would be good if the numbers are true. SW FL is highly republican. It's the Ft Meyers/Naples area (witness the Naples endorsement of Bush). It's a heavy corporate area.

The I-4 corridor is from Tampa to Orlando in central FL. It would not be part of this area polled.

[Florida_Geek]

12. Good source of information But blue is red and red is blue :)

http://www.uselectionatlas.org./USPRESIDENT/frametextj.html

[karlrschneider]

13. As in around Ft. Myers & environs? I sure hope you're right...I do know

my partner's mom just recently switched to JK (Port Charlotte, just outside the hurricane path)

[ShaneGR]

19. Port Charlotte got rocked pretty bad

Very substantial damage there... not as bad as Punta Gorda though.

[karlrschneider]

22. I know...she lives a few miles SE of the major path, lost some trees but

nothing that serious. I think she is still doing some volunteering for the more hard hit victims.

[featherman]

16. It's good if this is Collier County (Naples)

Bush over Gore in Collier by about 2-1 in 2000 (over 30%)

[Randi_Listener]

21. Not many voters there

It's a fucking parking lot over there. The population centers will come in strong Kerry.

[featherman]

24. To be specific, Bush won the Tri-County area in SW FL

(Collier, Charlotte, Lee) by about 60-40 (2 party vote). A 20% margin. Decreasing that pct helps somewhat with the state overall.

[rullery]

29. I live in Fort Myers, and this area is highly Republican.

When I went to vote on Thursday a week ago, there were no lines waiting at all! Considering that folks are waiting for hours in Democratic areas of Florida, my take is that Republicans are less motivated to vote this time. As an example of how Republican this area is, there was NO Democratic candidate running for the State Senate in this district. While my vote is unlikely to put Democrats in local offices here, my vote for President and U.S. Senate could well make a difference in these closely contested races.

Some posters here have said that this SW area can be ignored, as not being heavily populated. But Naples is one of the fastest growing cities in America, and there is a lot of growth in Fort Myers too. The Miami area is highly congested now, and so growth in occurring more and more in this SW area. Meanwhile, it is pleasant to live in a decent sized city, while avoiding the traffic jams and higher crime rates of major metropolitan areas IMHO.