Pew Poll Bush 48-45 Among Likely Voters Kerry 46-45 Among RVs

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I computed the party breakdown

Republicans - 39%

Democrats - 35%

Indys - 29%

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=232

[troublemaker]

1. That's a JFK WINNER!

Even leaving aside the partisan distribution (which queers the poll up front), they are showing steady progress in time toward Kerry and away from Bush in the larger RV sample.

1) Their LV model is bullshit in an election that will see 115,000,000+ turn-out

2) Bush has to be up 4+ points in the final natioanl polling to win on election day.

3) 48 points puts Bush in the failure zone.

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. They will still be predicting a chimp win after Kerry wins

in a landslide.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Oh Bullshit!!!!

I wonder why they call it the "pew" center?

:eyes:

There will be more Demcrats them Pubs!

[fujiyama]

4. Hmmm

I guess I'll take that. With an oversample of republicans, we still do fine on the registerd voters part.

Not only that, but Bush is below 50 in both of them. I think Bush's ceiling may be at 48.

[sonicx]

5. here's the link

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=232

snippet:

Each candidate garners the support of about 90% of their partisans. Kerry holds a slight 48%-44% margin among independent voters.

[pabloseb]

6. They have Kerry leading by 1 point in early voting

States allowing early voting lean republican on average.

[pabloseb]

7. They also have Kerry leading among independents

This poll is good news!

[pabloseb]

They also have Kerry leading in battleground states

The chimp is ahead nationally because he's winning by a huge margin in red states. Even with the oversampling of repugs, Kerry leads in the battlegrounds.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

10. I hope that Kerry wins the popular vote too.

He needs a mandate.

[pabloseb]

11. I hope that too

This particular poll suggests Kerry will indeed win the popular vote. They acknowledge their model resulted in a repug oversample, and that new voters can make a hell of a difference.

[pabloseb]

8. self-delete

accidental double post.

[jezebel]

9. I thougtht the same thing, but why does the 1829 total on the party

breakdown page not mesh with the supposed 1925 voters they say the poll is from on the first page. Did they just make up 96 people to add in to the LV? I don't get it.

[deadparrot]

12. So generally good news, no?

RV's are the numbers that you need to watch, seeing as how they are closer to the actual totals.

They oversampled Republicans, when I firmly believe more Dems will head to the polls.

I see nothing to whine about.

By the way, polls are crap.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. I Agree And Diagree...

I dig their raw numbers but I diagree with their assumptions on the composition of the electorate...


In 92 Dems and Reps voted in even numbers.... In 96 and 00 there were 38% Dems and 35% Reps voting...

How does a 2 point advantage turn into a four point defecit?

[deadparrot]

14. That's the problem, I don't think Republicans turn up as often

as Dems; that part of their methodology is off. I think that might be skewing the results in *'s favor, when Dems traditionally show up more often than Republicans.

Of course, who knows?

[DaveinMD]

15. trust the registered voters result

its much closer to the makeup of the electorate.