Let's say Bush wins Iowa... (A thought experiment)

[troublemaker]

Immagine that Kerry gets expected wins in MICHIGAN and OHIO, but let's say Bush wins IOWA... that would be a big deal for Bush. And let's say Bush's upper northwest strategy works and Bush takes MINNESOTA. And WISCONSIN. Now we need NEW HAMPSHIRE and NEW MEXICO in the worst way, but blammo! We've counted on them but Bush snaps them up like they were shots of Jim Beam. But we have a sneaky play to pick up that lost ground... maybe we can win VIRGINIA and WEST VIRGINIA to balance those losses. D'oh! It blows up in our face and Bush holds both Virginias easily.

And there are no friendly surprises out west... Kerry wins the three west coast states (of course) but Bush wins every state he's expected to win and holds COLORADO and NEVADA. The Big Dawg craps out in his home town and Bush holds ARKANSAS to finish his clean sweep of the Confederacy.

Then the shocker of the evening; Bush wins Democratic stronghold HAWAII in a landslide!!

Oh, did I mention that Kerry won FLORIDA? Kerry wins, 271 electoral votes to Bush's 267. Try it and see.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

Moral of the story: Every conceivable Bush fantasy of electoral victory begins with having to win a state everybody knows Al Gore won in 2000. Without Florida Bush doesn't even make it into the game.

[cubsfan forever]

1. Good one! n/t

Professor 2

[BootinUp]

2. LOL, it doesn't look good for the freepers.

L A N D S L I D E.

[Skittles]

3. I refuse to believe Bush will win Iowa

I absolutely REFUSE to consider it!

[Blue Gardener]

4. MeToo!

Iowa belongs to Kerry!

[troublemaker]

5. It's just a thought experiment. I *expect* Kerry to win Iowa and

Virginia and New Hampshire and Minesota and Wisconsin and Hawaii and PA and FL and MI and OH. (I am less confident about New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Arkansas, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Kerry win any of those either.)

[The Sheik]

8. I don't think a race would be that close.

If you visit the LA times home page, there is a multimedia piece which you can use to predict the outcome of the election by selection on whether it goes to the repubs or the dems based on the latest poll results. I have tested it out and if the polls are correct (believe me, I have multiple sources) if Kerry wins, (which he will unless something terrible happened like in Florida 2000)it will be a large victory which will probably be spun as a landslide. John Zogby was on the Daily Show last night, being the only pollster that Limbaugh trusts, he predicted victory to Kerry 2004 do to the fact that Bush has very low ratings for an incumbent, the only reason he has such high numbers is because people (for some reason) don't like Kerry. We may very well loose Iowa, but we probably will win Colorado in its place and if we can get Ohio while retaining control of the great lake states, Florida isnt necessary. If Bush steals this election, he will have won by a slim electoral margin.

[newyawker99]

22. Hi The Sheik!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[billyoc]

6. Didn't Vilsack say * couldn't come back

at this point, based on early voting? I thought I read that here somewhere, sorry if I'm mistaken.

[troublemaker]

9. the post isn't an actual prediction about Iowa

[troublemaker]

12. That's marvelous news, BTW thanks

[salinen]

7. If it happens that way

I'll be insane, but happy.

[0007]

10. In your fanasty does Kerry win the popular vote?

[troublemaker]

11. Sure, why not? I would love a major 52%+ popular vote...

...but I wouldn't trade it for a 1 vote electoral college majority.

[0007]

20. Now Kerry will have an authoritative command

given by a political electorate to its representative. Something junior didn't have.

[0rganism]

13. The key to your scenario is Ohio

Without it, the votes in Minnesota and Wisconsin and New Mexico and Iowa matter very very much indeed, even with Florida in Kerry's column.

[Still_Loves_John]

14. Haha, that was a really well-written post.

You had me. And good analysis, too. I was playing around on one of those electoral maps a few days ago and noticed that too. If we win Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (which, to be fair, isn't in the bag at all) we can lose pretty much every other close state.

[troublemaker]

15. It's odd that FL isn't a bigger story. Everyone assumes it's red, but why?

Of course if you don't spot Bush FL all this close election talk wouldn't make sense... nothing to talk about.

[Warren DeMontague]

16. I've been assuming the fucktards would steal it again.

No point in betting too much on a rigged table. But it would be VERY nice if we took it this time... no doubt.

[troublemaker]

19. Too much spotlight on Florida for over-the-top stealing -- I hope

[dansolo]

18. Bush "won" both FL and OH in 2000

If he loses either one of these, it is game over. Kerry can still pull out a victory even if he loses both of these states, but Bush can't afford to lose either one.

[Rambis]

17. * will not win iowa

I have given the stats too many times now-
66,000 new Dems
22,000 pugs
12,000 Independents
199,973 absentee ballots turned in as of last Monday 70% were registered Dems. Kerry drawing 2-3 times the crowds in iowa. * had a rally and Kerry outdrew him at the airport before he uttered a word at any rally last week. You couldn't get 100,000 people to show at a * rally and Kerry did it twice in a week. Kerry in a landslide!

[novadem]

21. Unfortunately Florida

looks more likely to end up red than the Upper Midwest and Hawaii right now.

I like your way of thinking though.