Looks like I was wrong. Dean appears to be on the decline

[CMT]

It saddens me to write that and I hope I will be proven wrong, but Howard Dean seems to be on a terrible slide in Iowa and in all likelihood will be defeated.

I was so sure he was on the upswing that I wrote a post about it yesterday saying that today's Zogby tracking poll should show Dean back in the lead--but lo and behold, Kerry is now expanding his lead to five-points. It has been a great week for Kerry.

I now think it likely that Dean may come in third and it would be a devastating blow to the campaign.

I'm still supporting him and will be phone banking for him this weekend, and I can only hope the much talked about surge of voters who never participated in a caucus before will materialize, but for now it isn't looking good.

Congratulations Kerry and Edwards supporters.

(on EDIT: I've read many of what you have posted down there and appreciate what you are saying and especially supporters of other candidates).

[bicentennial_baby]

1. Buck Up!

I think Iowa is still anyone's to grab right now, except maybe Edwards, who will probably place well regardless.

[Frangible]

2. Don't lose hope

Iowa is not everything. Even if Dean loses here, it is not the end of the world. At the very least, there will still be a democrat running against Bush.

[vi5]

3. I'm sure it's tough for hardcor supporters of any candidate...

But as an undecided I am enjoying this. It shows how much energy there is and also how much thought and forethought and afterthought is going into this. People realize stakes are high and the undecideds are coming off the fence.

I think it's great that we have so many positive choices.

[cthrumatrix]

4. I don't get it --- how do you KNOW --- I thought polls are not accurate

let alone a caucus....?

Dean supporters can see the media games...and it's a long game.

[shance]

58. Thats the reality Cthru......we dont know.

Polls arent accurate, electronic voting is alive and well.

Individuals, including myself, want to pretend its not there, but we have some serious problems on our hands, namely, who is really running these elections?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. Even though Kerry's lead is just barely larger than the MOE

it is still for all intents and purposes a 4 way tie. I would like to accept your congratulations but it is just too early. But thank you for your gracious post.

[Clark4VotingRights]

6. Woah, now wait a minute CMT.

Please don't believe polls.
Believe the people who come and participate in...that weird
caucus process. (Boy is it weird.)

Much of Dean's supposed drop is normal leveling off of the
front runner. And much is probably fabricated by the media.
It's a jungle out there.
But don't be sad.

I think it's a competative race and Dean is well positioned.
Don't be sad.
The man has $40mil. :)

[Egnever]

7. Odd i just saw a poll on CNN showing Dean back in the lead

:shrug:

[edzontar]

11. The polls today have him back on top....

And still ahead in NH too, despite a month of free time for Clark.

Dean can and will pull this off.

[slinkerwink]

51. which polls?

:shrug:

[sandnsea]

8. It's just a tough finish

It's good. It should be that way. Every voice should be heard. Every candidate should get a thorough going over. That's the only way we'll get the best choice for November.

Alot of factors are going to make up who wins this race. I don't even know how they count up the different precincts and whether Edwards' small precincts can add up to a higher percentage than the larger city precincts.

Nobody is in, nobody is out. Let's just all work hard for our candidates, make the phone calls and go to Iowa if we can. And may the best person win.

[9119495]

9. I'm not sure he CAN win given the media murder lately.

It will hit the other candidates too. Go to campaigndesk.org to see how a non-partisan election journalism review even sees Dean as the focus of steady and often baseless attacks.

[Clark4VotingRights]

14. One of our candidates has to win in spite of media character assinations

There's a good chance it'll be Dean.
Cheer up folks!
Your man is well positioned.

Don't let the media whores get you down.

[NashVegas]

61. Cool Site - Thanks for the Tip

..

[Demobrat]

10. Yeah, the attacks seem to be working.

And I'm sure there will be some last minute sleaze attack today or tomorrow, when it's too late to respond. Shades of Karl Rove.

[beaconess]

16. Do you think that Democratic primary voters are stupid?

That they can't see through any purported attacks and make up their minds based upon who they think will be the best nominee? It seems as if you're suggesting that anyone who is for Dean is reasonable while anyone who wants someone else has been bamboozled by the press.

Certainly, you don't really believe that?

[Demobrat]

22. Do you really believe that

sleaze attacks don't work? In that case, why are all of Dean's opponents relying on them almost exclusively?

[beaconess]

32. Couple of points

1. The attacks are going both ways and a good argument can be made that they originated with Dean;

2. You say that ALL of Dean's opponents are relying "almost exclusively" on "sleaze attacks?" A bit of hyperbole, wouldn't you say? What "sleaze attacks" has John Edwards engaged in against Dean - much less relied upon "almost exclusively?"

3. Do you really believe that only Dean's opponents are engaging in sleazy tactics while poor, poor Howard is just floating along pure as the driven snow?

[worldgonekrazy]

38. Not "stupid" per se

I think a lot of them are easily manipulated...as is just about everyone who doesn't understand what a truly dirty game politics is.

Obviously the attacks on Dean have been working, right? He has slid in the polls while getting attacked by virtually every candidate. The thing that bothers me is that most of these attacks are not legitimate, and the people that propagate them know this. They know Dean isn't a closet racist, they know he didn't really want to kill medicare, they know that he isn't really a Republican in sheep's clothing, and so forth.

[beaconess]

"A lot of them are easily manipulated?"

Damn.

You might help Dean more if you didn't speak out on his behalf.

[HFishbine]

43. Stupid? Maybe not. Confused? Perhaps.

Take this Iowan, for example, who was on Hardball last night. Doesn't like Dean because he thinks Dean is making excuses for his "war vote."
--------

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was with Dean. And I‘ve gone to—I‘m leaning more Kerry than Edwards. But that‘s the two camps.

LUNTZ: Why did you switch?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I just—I‘m not comfortable with the way Dean vacillates on issues.

LUNTZ: What—which—what in particular?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, he‘ll say, for example, that, I voted for this at this point about the Iraq war. And then I changed my mind. But he doesn‘t really try to explain it. He tries to defend it.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3979318

[beaconess]

50. Are black voters more susceptible to confusion than everyone else?

[HFishbine]

56. Whaaaa?

I don't get it. Why would that be? Because the guy who made this comment was black?

[beaconess]

66. Excuse me?

I asked another poster whether he thought that black voters were stupid (since his post implied that he did). You responded by stating that they weren't stupid but confused, and then quoted a black man as evidence of this confusion.

And you wonder why I asked whether you think that black voters are more confused than anyone else? That was clearly the implication of your post.

[HFishbine]

71. FACT CHECK

"I asked another poster whether he thought that black voters were stupid..."

Actually, the first mention of black voters was made by you in response to the Hardball transcript (which gave no indication of the voters race.)

Anybody who follows the threads, and not your explaination, will see quite clearly when black voters were brought up in this dicussion and where implications and inferences were made.

[beaconess]

72. You're right - I'm sorry

I got this thread mixed up with another thread in which someone made a similar assumption about black voters. I apologize.

[HFishbine]

73. No biggie

Big of you to apologize, but I can understand how it happens. I've gotten my wires crossed here too before trying to keep up with a few different threads.

I think it's safe to say that neither one of us were trying to make any negative comments about black voters but rather about voter confusion in Iowa regardless of race. I guess the confusion abounds.

[beaconess]

12. I think this is great news-and not just because I'm for another candidate

But this is what democracy is all about. It was very frustrating feeling like we were being steamrolled before a single vote had been cast. Having a real race will make whoever emerges at the end a stronger candidate. And, just as important, that person will be much easier to support since it's difficult to get enthusiastic about someone you feel has been shoved down your throat.

[lovedems]

13. Does anybody know how many candidates have won Iowa and then went

on to win the nominiation? Just curious because I am sure there is some historical data out there. I have dial up, so searching sucks for me.

[Melodybe]

18. 2 Carter and Kennedy? I'm 100% sure about Carter but only like 75% on JFK

Man our DSL was on the fritz the other day and I was using our dail-up, you have my sympathies.

[LuminousX]

15. Kerry and Edwards do deserve congratulations

I fear Dean's fall in the polls and the major upswing in nasty attacks with no sign of relief means the Dean machine is going to have greater difficulty through this process.

Kerry deserves major kudos for reviving his campaign in the nick of time.

While an Iowa loss rarely means disaster for a campaign, I know the Dean campaign has put a lot of resources into Iowa to guarantee a strong start.

[edzontar]

31. I'll take Kerry and Edwards over Clark, any day of the week.

I hope they both do well, and Gephardt gets tossed.


Then all three should target Clark in NH and finish him off as soon as possible.

I want the final three to be Dean, Kerry, and Edwards.

The three best should be the three last.

[LuminousX]

46. 100% in agreement

[Walt Starr]

75. Me too

If Dean starts taking a nose dive, I'll be jumping over to Edwards or Kerry, whichever is the strongest, to support somebody other than Clark.

[Skinner]

17. I wouldn't write off Dean yet.

He's got the best organization by far, which ought to mean something. I think he's going to win Iowa, and may do so by an unexpectedly wide margin.

[Egnever]

20. Bah you pre-empted my post!

But I gotta agree I predict a blowout.

[Melodybe]

21. CNN just had him in the lead again so who knows

:shrug:

[AP]

23. I think Dean will win too, with Gep very close behind and Edwards and

Kerry making good shows (although Kerry supporters will be most disappointed with the outcome).

Dean will come out of it with a little hubris, which he might play to his advantage, if he's smart.

[janx]

28. Dean has slipped.

There's no denying it.

[Egnever]

30. How so?

I dont remember Dean ever having a solid lead in Iowa. could you please point me to a poll where he was in a comfortable lead?

He has been blowing out NH for a long time but Iowa has always been tight.

[HFishbine]

53. Dean's Polling History

Dean was polling in the upper 20's in December. Gephardt was leading in the fall.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/IAPoll.htm

[Blitz]

29. Are you sure that hubris is the word that you're looking for?

I think that perhaps you meant humility. Many people would say that Dean's got hubris to spare.

[AP]

33. Oops, yes. Humility. Hubris is the problem.

In fact, if I were Dean, I might think about losing Iowa intentionally and then pretending that it has mabe me humble. That would get a lot of people back into his camp and solve his anger problem.

Think of this way: he now knows the anger thing is never going to work. How to change it? Lose Iowa. Flail your self. Say you were too proud. Then go on to NH with the impression that you've changed.

Bill Clinton and Mike Dukakis did similar things when they lost their governorships and got reelected.

[Blitz]

44. Reminds me of that South Park song

I can change, I can change . . .

Note: I am NOT comparing Dean to Saddam Hussein in any way, shape or form ... I was just reminded of the song.

[Blitz]

27. Actually, from the reports that I've heard

Gephardt has the best organization on the ground in Iowa. Dean's, however, is the most enthusiastic.

Anything can happen on Monday. My question is, what happens to Dean if he finishes 3rd or 4th, which could conceivably happen.

My prediction for Iowa:

Gephardt: 28%

Kerry: 25%

Dean: 23%

Edwards: 20%

Kucinich: 3%

Sharpton: 1%

Give or take.

[AP]

35. Nobody will get 3 or 1%. Anyone with less than 15%, their voters vote...

...again, right? Or do you only have the option of voting again? Can you stay with your candidate if you want to?

[Blitz]

40. I'm not sure how the process works

But I feel comfortable in saying that neither DK nor Sharpton will get anything near 15% of the vote statewide.

[Renew Deal]

54. It's possible

the candidate can get 15% in one caucus, but not another. Also, I think you can stay with your person.

Here are results from 2000. I am giving you the republican results because they had more candidates.

http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/iarepresults.html

[Feanorcurufinwe]

82. Well, that's within each caucus.

So as long as there are some caucuses where the candidate gets 15%, he'll end up with something, but that could be a very small number.

[Walt Starr]

63. I switch Kerry and Gephardt and I switch

Dean and Edwards right now. I give Kerry another two points and for Edwards for:

Kerry 30%
Gephardt 25%
Edwards 25%
Dean 20%

That's the way I see it shaping up, any way.

[Kahuna]

84. I wouldn't write him off either. But his negative remarks about the IA..

caucuses that were released by NBC last week could be what's cutting into his numbers more than anything else.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. All the more reason he will do well in NH

As I have said- New Hampshire rebutts Iowa- this will give it all the more reason to vote for Dean.
Take it from a stubborn native New Englander whose roots go back to NH and Vermont into the 1700's. New Hampshire will strongly support Dean, but I also hope Kerry too!

[goodhue]

24. premature

I think your congratulations are premature. Very hard to predict Iowa caucus based on polls because hard to identify who will actually show up. It's wide open but Dean's strong organization and committed supporters suggest he will still have a very strong showing. Personally, I'm all for a Dean melt-down but I don't see it happening.

[janx]

25. I'm still supporting him too. Who could have predicted this?

:shrug:

[Bucky]

26. I agree w/most. This news isn't terrible news and Dean remains strong

He's got his millions and he's got the "perfect storm" volunteers and he's got the 25% party support nation-wide. Howard's tripped a bit, but he's still the frontrunner.

I'm a Clark supporter because of his strong positive message and style. Kerry's done okay by himself, but I'm not that impressed with the way he's gotten there.

[worldgonekrazy]

34. Where did this Kerry surge come from?

Am I missing something? Dean's been getting all the political endorsements and Edwards has been getting the editorial endorsements yet Kerry jumps out front! Weird.

[janx]

36. Nobody seems to know.

:shrug:

[goodhue]

41. tv ads mostly

[worldgonekrazy]

45. Dean's got $40 million for tv ads

Are Kerry's ads simply better? I find this hard to believe, given the great bumbling failure that Kerry's campaign appeared to be right up until last week.

[Foswia]

42. The center!

You know, the voters who ignore the race untill a week before, and then pick a centrist guy. Seems quite a few on this board felt there was no need for the center, monday will tell us. IF dean can't win in the Prim w/o the center, then there's no way he can win GE w/o it.

[worldgonekrazy]

48. Good point there

I just think that Dean is being mischaracterized as fringe leftist (take that ridiculous Club for Growth ad for example) when in fact he is a centrist. Hell, I will freely admit that John Kerry is further to the left than Dean on most issues.

[TexasPatriot]

62. the kerry and edwards surge

came from people who hate the Gep vs Dean / Dean vs Insiders attacking... plus i think the whole 'taxes will go up' is having an impact on the undecideds.

i still think Dean wins iowa... too much money - he'll spend a lot of money on his GOTV to get those numbers up, but i think Gep will do better than expected too due to his rural maneuvering.

What comes out of Iowa regardless of who eeks this one out? A whole bunch of candidates who've spent a lot of money beating the crap out of each other with nothing decided.

[Oreegone]

37. Please

Not one vote has been cast. It's the beginning of the campaign, not the end, even if Dean were not the winner, he would be a front runner and there are 49 other states. as the first poster so appropriately said...BUCK UP

[Snivi Yllom]

39. one poll and he is in a slide?

Cmon

Dont be so gullible. One poll does not make the race even though the media whores want you to think it. MSNBC is pushing THEIR OWN COMMISIONED POLL as gospel.

Any conflict of interest there?

[janx]

47. Well, he isn't leading the way he used to.

That much is clear.

[LuminousX]

49. Actually Zogby shows a trend downward

that was also watching the Kerry climb.

Yes, poll accuracy in Iowa at this stage of the game is suspect, but we cannot ignore the fact that things aren't all milk and honey in the Dean campaign in Iowa right now.

[Snivi Yllom]

57. poll showing Dean in the lead-barely

http://research2000.us/in_the_news/20040115_kcci_poll_iowa_caucuses_too_close_to_call.php

KCCI Poll: Iowa Caucuses Too Close To Call
DES MOINES, Iowa -- It looks like the Iowa caucuses are too close to call.
Results of an exclusive NewsChannel 8 poll released Thursday evening show Howard Dean is leading among Iowa Democrats, but only by one percentage point. His standing has fallen significantly since KCCI's last poll one week ago ...

“We may see some buyer's remorse at the moment in Dean supporters, concerned about whether he has the temperament to be a good president,” said KCCI political analyst Dennis Goldford.

The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from Jan. 12 through Jan. 14, 2004.

[janx]

68. They certainly aren't. And it's not easy to admit.

.

[Walt Starr]

52. I will be a Dean supporter all the way to the end

but I must agree, things look really bad for him now. I would not be surprised if he finished fourth based upon recent polling data.

I still like Dean, but I'm not holding out much hope in Iowa and have written it off completely. I'm concentrating my efforts on New Hampshire because, quite frankly, there's nothing I can do about Iowa any longer.

[janx]

74. There's nothing any of us can do about Iowa now.

Nothing. :cry:

[the populist]

55. I am a Gephardt supporter, and I will be celebrating tonight!

I can't tell you how happy I am. I don't really like Kerry's waffling and weak stands on issues, but at least he's a statesman. I can see him speaking to Chirac or Schroeder and conducting foreign affairs. Dean is a centrist, who has been running as a liberal (very dangerous politically in terms of national elections). He also runs his mouth too much (although I like it when he does that, I doubt that the non-Democrats of this country will).

I can't tell you how happy I am. I am getting so trashed tonight!!! :)

[kayleybeth]

59. Hi populist

You should edit out the $%#@%#!!!! from the title of your post. It's against the new rules.

[yellowcanine]

67. Why would you celebrate third place?

for Gephart when he should be winning in Iowa?

[the populist]

70. To put it bluntly:

because I intensely dislike Howard Dean and his media support. And I hate *, and Kerry would be a stronger candidate against that shrub in the White House.

[funky_bug]

60. Hey there little camper

Buck up! You've seen the fickleness of the polls. Yes, it appears that Dean has slid a bit, but the MOE is no laughing joke. I still think he runs a strong campaign, and his supporters are very hard working and dedicated.

Aside from that, look where Kerry was just last week! Anything can and will happen!

But it's not often we see someone retract a previous statement, and while I won't allow you one moment of self-deprication, I do appreciate your openness and candor.

[Rowdyboy]

64. Never, never, never, never, never

give up. You're not beaten until the results are announced and you're still not beaten then. You fight in New Hampshire, you'll keep fighting. Eventually, either you'll start winning or your guy will drop out.

Life will continue, regardless, but, still never give up...

[yellowcanine]

65. How Accurate has Zogby been in Iowa in past elections?

I am not a pollster but it seems to me that traditional polling wouldn't be as accurate in a caucus - so much depends on campaign organization and who gets their supporters to the caucus sites - and that is where I would think Dean's organization is probably superior to all others.

[JNelson6563]

69. Aye, while the outcome is uncertain

we must never be givin' up our hope! We Irish learned long ago the power of determination.

Ya know those crazy Vikings? Went around conquering everybody right? Well go ask them about the Irish and determination. ;-)

BTW, I just want to say that the commaraderie and encouragement between camps in this thread (for the MOST part) is refreshing and encouraging!!

Good to see so many "Buck up Johnny" messages from opponents.

A toast to the generous souls who posted in this thread! :toast:

Julie

[MoonRiver]

76. Thanks for that heartfelt and honest post.

I'll definitely vote for Dean if he wins the nomination. We're all in this together.
:grouphug:

[mmonk]

77. You're just watching

undecideds move into position right now. Your candidate is in good shape.

[Bucky]

78. Disagree. He's bled 11% support in the last 11 days

As per the ARG poll he's dropped from 39% to 28% in NH. This really kinda smells like "peaked too soon" to be honest with you. As Kerry has shown, going negative the right way really can work. I'm a Clarkie so my guy is pretty much negativity proof, but this sort of thing bothers me a lot.

[mmonk]

79. Its hard to tell

yes, he has worse numbers. Caucuses are hard to gauge but there is slippage in NH. Some number changes overall (not necessarily NH) are affected by undecideds and/or soft support switchovers. But he is at or near the top.

[quaker bill]

80. Or perhaps he is rebounding

SurveyUSA.com Iowa Poll: Dean 24%, Edwards 22%, Kerry 21%, Gephardt 20%

Up 4 points in 3 days.

[mikehiggins]

81. Whoa! Hold on there Bunky!

None of the votes have been cast as yet.

It may be that this is not Dean's time but even if it isn't he's certainly kicked the old mule in the balls and woken it up.

Your guy may still win Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination (its a long way to the end zone) and even if he doesn't he'll still be a force for change in the Democratic party for years to come.

And I'm sure whoever does win the nomination we'll all be shoulder to shoulder facing November.

Don't lose the faith, even if you lose the primaries.

And I'm a Clark guy.

Oh my God! I'm a Clark guy!!! What am I saying??????

Hey, never mind, okay? Just forget I said anything, allright????

[Kahuna]

83. I think it's too soon to count him out. But he seems to be..

very uncertain and dejected at this point. He definately seems to be off his game. What do you think he needs to do to get back on his game?