How crazy is this election prediction?

[LittleClarkie]

Another day, another bet:

My numbers

Kerry 54%
Bush 43%
Nader 2%
Other 1%

My friend's numbers

Bush 51%
Kerry 46%
Nader 2%
Other 1%

One interesting note tonight -- in talking to one of the guys at the pub, I discovered that he and the friend above are actually more undecided than I thought they were. If they are undecided now, they must be planning on stepping into the polls Nov 2 and deciding then.

Bush's base isn't exactly enthused, are they.

Even so, most of the pub regulars are convinced Bush is going to win. For some reason, as a Kerry supporter, they don't give my opinion much weight, nor do they ask what my reasons are.

They also have no freakin' clue that we are more excited about Kerry than they think we are.

So, how crazy am I, bet-wise?

[Dookus]

1. probably a little crazy

neither candidate will exceed 52% for sure, and it's likely neither will exceed 50.8%.

[ogradda]

2. o.k.

kerry 53%
bush 45%
others(including nader)2%

my fingers are crossed....

[JSJ]

3. kerry 100%- george w butcher 0%, the little pinhead!

[RafterMan]

4. Crazy? HA!

Those are my numbers. In moments of doubt, I say 53-44.

You can start spending the money.

[LittleClarkie]

6. One more point

and I'll win three more bets. I need a spread of 10% (our agreed-upon definition of a landslide).

Seems in somewhat bad taste to bet on the outcome of a race that is so important. Hopefully I can be forgiven. Living in Freeperville, sometimes I need to wipe the smirk of a few faces.

So far I've used:

"Kerry will not only win, it won't even be close."

"Kerry is strong on defense."

"Landslide."

Each one has done it's duty. I've been rewarded with either a spit-take or just the inevitable "WHAT?!?!?"

I hope Kerry can win these guys over. Even so, I have the permission of one of them to rub his nose in it come election day if Kerry wins. Of course he said this after he told me he was going to rub MY nose in it if Bush wins. "Oh really," I answered, "and if Kerry wins I can do the same?" "Sure," he said, "BUT IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!"

We shall see. Heh.

[RunningFromCongress]

9. I think you're crazy if you consider 10% a landslide now...

maybe 10% of the electoral vote, but 10% of the popular vote is going to be like 12 million votes...

[UL_Approved]

5. Won't know till the fat lady sings

This won't be over on November 2. We have more to do until then. If people get the vote out, we may have a better time, but I'm sure that the miscounts and skewed elections will come to the wash. If people really want this country, they are going to have to fight for it. Michael Moore ran "TV Nation" back during Bush Sr., and I'm sure it swayed opinion. With Fahrenheit 911, we may have a small revolution on our hands. But time will tell.

[Bucky]

7. You should wager oral sex with them

No really. This would definitely prove who's more confident about their guy's chances. Sure, I stole this idea from Team America: World Police. But it's a great idea. Anyone says Bush will win, tell them to "open up" or shut up.

[LittleClarkie]

8. Blush.

Hey Bucky, I like your sig pictures.

Do you think Kerry had the first one in the back of his mind as he stood in almost the exact same position?

He's such a Kennedy fan, I wondered.

[Bucky]

10. People keep asking me that. I don't know, but it's hard to see he did

This is not a famous shot of Bobby. I culled it from Stars & Stripes online. I think it's just a coincidence.

Or God.