Get ready for a November surprise

[Iceburg]

Great article from Salon

Get ready for a November surprise

A "black young'n" says the polls and pundits just don't get the new voter realities. Kerry wins in a blowout, predicts this Salon reader.
By Kevin Criss

Oct. 27, 2004 | I am a 21-year-old African-American/loyal Salon reader/ frequent writer to you. Although I love you all a lot and, like you (assuming so), I am a liberal, I just feel I have to scream at you for a bit. Almost two weeks ago, I sent a letter to you guys telling you how the new Eminem song "Mosh" has many young'ns riled up, angry, motivated and against Bush. Now 10 days or so later, not only you guys but many publications are up on it. My point? Maybe you guys should listen more to us young'ns, maybe have a young person consultant of sorts. After all, we will decide this election, as I will point out later in this letter.

First, let me just say prepare for the death of polls, as that will be the dominant story coming out of election night. First blacks. I saw Ann Coulter on some show where she was literally speaking for black America. Being that she is an aging white chick with poorly dyed roots, she obviously got it wrong. Those polls saying how Bush will get 16 to 18 percent of the black vote are just wrong. To quote ODB, "Nigga please." Since black people aren't really polled, here is a bit of insight. Although we aren't that excited about Kerry, he has nothing to worry about with the African-American community. We as a whole don't like Bush, period. Yes, Democrats take us for granted and regardless of which party, we are at the bottom of the totem poll, but we realize that Democrats talk to us, try with us, are down with us, and give us a seat at the table. We are gamed to what the GOP do, or rather don't do for us.

Locally, as all politics are, as a person living in Louisiana, I can tell you that the more racist persons here are a part of the Republican Party and to us the GOP chooses them over us. Plus, we are highly motivated. You just don't realize how pissed we are from Florida last time. Bringing out Clinton won't hurt, but Kerry shouldn't worry about us African-Americans.

Next, us young'ns. We aren't as stupid as people think. Simply put, we are in Iraq fighting or we know someone there, we have no health insurance, no jobs, and are generally pro-human rights (not for the gay marriage amendment, PATRIOT Act, etc.). We aren't going to vote for Bush, period. Kerry will take about 70 percent of the young vote. I am predicting, collectively there will at least 20 million more voters from these two groups, young'ns and blacks. You maybe think "yeah the fuck right" -- but trust me. On average 30 percent of African-Americans vote. Expect a minimum of 50 percent this time, maybe close to double. That is anywhere between 7 to 9 million more blacks voting. Young'ns will have a similar margin. Again, we at most vote at a 40 percent rate. Young'ns will easily double their numbers, going from 18 million to about 36 million.

Here are things to ponder.

Kerry wins Arizona: This state has the most college students per capita. Kerry will win Flagstaff, Tucson and Tempe. Throw in Native Americans, Latins, and even moderate Republicans who will vote Democratic (they got the Democratic governor elected), and oh I forgot all the Independents, Kerry will win this state.

more Salon

[deadmessengers]

1. I hope he's right

He makes a lot of sense. If somehow Kerry can pull out Arizona, that would leave a TON of breathing room in the other battleground states.

[Iceburg]

3. Here's the rest of the article ...

Kerry wins Nevada: This state simply comes down to Vegas. Kerry will win Vegas by a big enough margin to cancel out the rest of the state.

Kerry win Missouri: What people either don't realize or just don't give a fuck to report is that the black mobilization efforts in St. Louis and Kansas City are second to none, literally. Florida got the attention last time, but people seem to have forgotten that blacks there were denied the right to vote at many polling places that were closed on them. Throw in college towns, Kerry wins.

Kerry wins Minnesota: I can't believe people actually think this state is close. What people tend to forget is that voters here can register as you vote. Throw in Ventura's endorsement and the young'ns.

Kerry wins Colorado: Sometimes people just got to listen to the streets. I have family and friends in Colorado, and what they tell me is that "Fahrenheit 9/11" has had a huge impact there, so much so they are still talking about it, and as people watched it they were changed by it. How can a tradtional red state have a rich ass Senate candidate getting his ass kicked and polls showing Bush/Kerry within the margin. Kerry wins.

Kerry wins Texas: PSYCH! But just as people are saying Kerry wins CA, NY, and NJ by closer margins, so does Bush take his own state. I'll go out on a margin and say Bush gets no more than 60 percent in his own state. Holla.

Just to save space and time: Kerry wins Arkansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, N. Hampshire, and Penn. He may lose Iowa, as I really don't know much about that state. Kerry wins nationally in a blowout. Election night is over as central time zone states finish reporting. Why? Because of blacks and young'ns. Bush's people know this, as their strategy is to turn out their base while suppressing our base ... fuckers.

I ask that in the future that you at least take in more opinions from us young'ns and Afro Americans.

[steve2470]

4. thanks, salon.com is down nt

[blondeatlast]

8. He will, too. It's all up to Maricopa County (Phoenix metro area)

and there are more registered Dems than Republicans here.

Plus independents make up about 25% of registered voters, and I sincerely doubt the Bush campaign pulls in more thant half of that vote.

[kostya]

2. That is a tremendous letter!! I, too, think the pollers have it

all wrong this time, but he has laid it out quite elegantly! - K

[Iceburg]

7. Its a new world we live in and it will be years before the pollsters

catch up (if ever).

Sittin' up here in Canada (the distance affords some added clarity), The signs are very clear that it will be Kerry in a landslide:

- unparalleled voter registration (especially among youth)

- unprecedented divisions between the administration and the military, intelligence communities, republican house/senate ... the defection rate equal only to Lincoln's era

- the Kerry vs Bush endorsement romp (2-1 in terms of circulation for Kerry, including 44 switch-hitters + 10 former Bush supporters refusing to endorse)
"Since 1940 when industry trade magazine Editor & Publisher began tracking newspapers during presidential elections, only two Democratic candidates -- Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992 -- have ever won more endorsements than their Republican opponent. That's because newspaper publishers, who usually sign off on endorsements, tend to vote Republican." (another tidbit from a Salon article yesterday). In 2000, Bush had 3 times the number of Gore endorsements (in terms of number of papers)

In summary, the old rats are leaving the ship in record numbers and there's a whole new generation of hamsters that ain't goin' spend there life inside a wheel ...they are breaking out Nov 2.

[loudsue]

5. Kevin Chris....from your lips to God's ears!!

O8) May all this young'un says come to pass! And may all Dem voters be protected from the repuke nazis. O8)

:kick:

[Bandit]

6. I agree with him...The Media will be more than surprised...

Shocked will be the term we hear over and over again. This will be the biggest ass whoopin of a pResident ever. And well deserved I might add.