Harris Poll - Kerry takes 1 pt. lead - Kerry 48% Bush 47% LV

[unfrigginreal]

Bush, Kerry Are Neck and Neck
In Final Week Before Election

A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
October 27, 2004

Only seven days before election day, President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are separated by a single percentage point, the latest Harris Poll shows.

The poll echoes other surveys from across the nation showing the two candidates are in a dead heat. The latest Reuters/Zogby poll (taken Oct. 23-25) shows Mr. Bush ahead but within the margin of error, and the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll (taken Oct. 22-24) shows Mr. Kerry ahead by a point, well within that poll's margin of error.

This survey also finds very little difference between the numbers for the popular vote as a whole and in seventeen swing states. In both cases the election is much too close to call.

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109881689996956098,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree%5Ffeature

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The last poll was conducted 10/14-10/17 and Bush led 48-46

[lancdem]

1. Wonderful!

[swag]

4. This is only the latest national horserace with similar numbers

And Bush is bumping his head on an incumbent loser's 47%. State polls are looking grimmer for him too. VOTE AND GET OUT THE VOTE!

see

www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

October 26, 2004

Kerry Ahead by 1 in New Harris Poll
John Kerry leads George Bush 48-47 percent of nation-wide LV's, with 1 percent for Nader, 1 percent other and 2 percent not sure, according to a Harris Poll conducted 10/21-25.

Latest LA Times Poll: Kerry/Edwards Leading By 1% in Horserace
In a poll released October 25 the LA Times has Kerry/Edwards leading Bush/Cheney 48% to 47% in a 2-way RV matchup.

Latest Democracy Corps Survey Shows Kerry Up By Two Nationwide and Leading 52-45 in Battleground States.

The latest Democracy Corps survey, conducted Oct 23-25 Shows John Kerry leading George Bush 49-47 in their national sample and 52-45 in the battleground states. The poll also found that Kerry is ahead by 22 pts among new voters and includes substantial additional information on the latest trends among population subgroups and target voters.


Posted by EDM Staff at 03:23 PM | link | Comments (8)

[sonicx]

2. didn't harris have kerry down 7 in the last poll?

[jezebel]

13. YES!!! Look at this......

The Harris Poll. Oct. 14-17, 2004. Nationwide. MoE ± 3. LV1: N=820 registered voters who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. LV2: N=755 registered voters who say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and that (if old enough) they voted in 2000.

.

"If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats, and Ralph Nader as an independent, for whom would you most likely vote?" If undecided: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"

.

Bush Kerry Nader Other Unsure
% % % % %
LV1 48 46 1 1 4
LV2 51 43 1 1 4



Look at LV2, that is the one this current poll would compare too. Makes me wonder if they had a LV1 poll which doesn't have the voted in 2000 restriction and it was a blowout for Kerry, so they chose not to publish it.


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[Doosh]

wow, they ain't kidding when they say Kerry is a great closer!

:)

[unfrigginreal]

15. This poll is comparing to LV1 - we don't have the LV2 numbers yet

[jezebel]

17. nope read the article again, it says likely voted in 2000 if old enough

Base: Likely Voters

Likely Voters*
George W. Bush 47%
John Kerry 48
Ralph Nader 1
Other 1
Not sure/Refused 2

*Likely Voters are defined as adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and, if they were old enough, voted in 2000.

[unfrigginreal]

23. Wow, I believe you're right...that would be one hell of a swing

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Maybe There Will Be No LV2 For This Poll

nt

[jezebel]

19. This DOES compare to LV2, see post above. NT

nt

[katusha]

3. i'm sick of this "likely voter" shit!

why can't we just get the RV numbers strait up?

[Inland]

6. I don't see RV numbers in the article at all

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Harris Not Zogby Was The Most Accurate Pollster In 00

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

[TexasSissy]

12. I'm with you. "Likely voters" depends on how you define that term....

it's very iffy. RV is more reliable.

[jezebel]

5. I think this poll was right in 2000, and look at the likely voter model...

"Likely Voters are defined as adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote and, if they were old enough, voted in 2000."


How many people are like me and didn't vote in 2000, and we are not considered likely. And you know most of us are NOT voting for Bush.

[Inland]

9. That "and" really narrows the definition.

[Bush was AWOL]

7. Harris was *the* most accurate poll in 2000

Bye bye Georgie!!!!!

[foo_bar]

14. not so fast, Gore was 48-47

but our 48 is more concentrated in Florida and Ohio this time.

[deadparrot]

10. Cool.

Good to hear from an semi-accurate pollster.

Anyone heard about Zogby's numbers for tomorrow?

[jefferson_dem]

20. Not heard but i predict a slight gain for Kerry, as the freakish Saturday

numbers fall off. We'll see.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I Gave Up On Zogby As He Practically Called It For Bush Today

He said some crap like the undecideds are going for Bush and if Kerry wants to win he has to look beyond the undecideds...

Where?


To the Malaysians...

Actually I gave up on Zogby when he had Lazio beating Clinton and Gore one point up in Cali on 11/6/00...

Also, 2004 wasn't his finest hour when he basically predicted Dean would be the nominee before one vote was cast...

[JohnnyCougar]

21. I'd almost garuntee Zogby's numbers are within 1 point tomorrow

Bush is only up 3 because he had a miraculously good Saturday which will drop off tomorrow. Kerry could easily be up tomorrow.

[deadparrot]

22. That's what I figured.

Just wondering if anyone heard anything about a good/bad polling day for one or the other.

[Doosh]

11. Harris picks up on the trend!

Things are swinging our way at just the right time!

what was the last Harris poll? I think it had Kerry down 3 or 4???? not certain.

[w4rma]

16. Thats nice. But, please ignore the polls. Analyzing them to death doesn't

help get Democrats elected.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

24. Note that their sample also has NO newly registered voters

says the likely voters said they are certain to vote AND voted in 2000

[unfrigginreal]

26. Morning kick

:kick: